A weather eye on climate change

The climate debate has misled people about the quality of the science around climate change

A FEW years ago my oldest daughter came home from school in a state of high agitation. I quizzed her on what was concerning her, to which she replied angrily that I was killing the polar bears.

Apparently she had learned at school that our collective continued use of petrol and diesel was causing global warming and this was threatening the bears. In her young mind this was interpreted as the fuel use on our farm was directly and singularly the cause of the problem.

“My agricultural science training compels me to rely on good science in forming my own opinion”

I was more than a little disgusted that climate activists were able to terrorise my daughter in such a way. However, as much as it pains me to say so, it did cause me to check my own assumptions and attitudes to climate change.

In my farming system we employ strategies to manage and mitigate as much as possible the risk associated with climate variability. I am as prepared for the impact of climate change as anybody, particularly in the context of my likely tenure in the farming business. Furthermore, the farming systems deployed on my farm are also probably the most environmentally responsible systems in terms of water, soil and atmospheric considerations.

However, farmers are demonised by biased emission assessments and a hypocritical latte-sipping green set who have no real appreciation for the fact that modern agriculture is essential to sustain the global population.

Don’t misunderstand me, I am deeply concerned about the future my children will inherit. I am not a devotee of the late Reverend Malthus, but I do see real problems in the libertarian approach to climate and environment that at best suggests clever people will solve the future problems, or at worst simply suggests it is not a problem today so we do not need to do anything about it.

The climate debate has misled people about the science and more importantly about the quality of the science around climate change. In considering my daughter’s emotional and slightly illogical thought process, it seems the broader debate mirrored her reaction and shifted too quickly to a black and white, believe or deny faith-driven conflict.

My agricultural science training compels me to rely on good science in forming my own opinion. As a father and husband I have learned that life and its problems are rarely black and white. As a practising farmer I know that nature is similarly complex. Middle age has brought me a more pragmatic outlook.

We know that climate is continually changing. These changes have been relatively slow throughout history and there has been ample opportunity for humanity to cope and adapt over our much shorter history. We also know that the effects of relatively rapid climate change coupled with the stage of earth’s Precession was instrumental in the evolutionary success of our species in the Rift Valley.

At this time there is an extraordinary and unprecedented level of scientific consensus around climate change with 97 per cent of climate scientists agreeing that man is contributing to climate change. This is a higher degree of consensus than exists around the effects of smoking or asbestos. So what can we draw from this consensus?

“From an agricultural perspective we see modelling suggesting a 6pc decline in global wheat production with every degree of global warming”

We know that atmospheric CO2 levels are now at the highest levels since humankind has existed. We also know that CO2 and other gases have a greenhouse effect trapping radiant heat in the atmosphere and incidentally increasing global oceanic and atmospheric temperatures. We know this system is incredibly complex and well buffered so the full impacts of the changes are difficult to predict accurately. We know that atmospheric CO2 levels have risen with a strong correlation to human exploitation of fossil fuels.

I am the first to admit that I am not a climate scientist and happily not an expert on all aspects of the arguments. This gives me a massive out in the underlying conflict. However, there are useful tools to use in making risk assessments in uncertain circumstances.

It is helpful to ask how likely an outcome might be and then ask how serious that outcome would be.

The current climate models show a high degree of variability in rate of warming and similarly a high degree of variability in the impacts of that warming. Our own CSIRO has recently reported that, in line with universally forecast increases in weather volatility, Australia will likely see a doubling of the incidence of devastating floods this century.

From an agricultural perspective we now see modelling suggesting a 6pc decline in global wheat production with every degree of global warming. I think these models are founded on too many assumptions to be useful. However, the more important concerns are around an increasingly volatile production environment overlaid against a just in time supply management culture. This predisposes the market to acute shortages which will lead to inevitable social and political instability.

“If the outcomes of unchecked climate change are only half as bad as the moderate predictions, the human cost warrants immediate action”

Some of the more credible modelling suggests that if global temperatures reach two degrees of warming our existing agricultural systems and infrastructure will only reliably support a global population of four billion. Four degrees of warming will cause even greater disruption to global agriculture and resultant production may only reliably sustain one and a half billion people. It begs a slightly terrifying question about who and how we will decide which portion of our population will survive.

Let us go back and ask the important question. How likely is two degrees of warming? The answer is very likely. How likely is disruption to agriculture? The answer is very likely. How likely is it that we won’t be able to reliably feed the global population? The answer is very likely, but the extent is unclear. How serious would such a disruption be? The answer is that it would be devastating as isolated occurrence, but catastrophic if frequency increases.

I have already referenced Reverend Malthus and his predictions of dire outcomes from overpopulation as far back as 1798. I am not a Malthusian enthusiast, but if the outcomes of unchecked climate change are only half as bad as the moderate predictions, the human cost warrants immediate action or at least commitment to meaningful action.

“We must move quickly to address the carbon problem collectively ... and farmers should not be compelled to again absorb the cost of this structural reform on behalf of the rest of society”

As with all problems it is essential to acknowledge and define the problem before you can hope to meaningfully address it. I think back to my daughter’s angst and consider my obligation to provide a better future for her often. It frustrates me that today’s politicians regard this issue with little more consideration than garnering short term party advantage.

Joe Hockey, our Treasurer, announced in a television interview recently that he could not conceive any circumstance where climate change could affect the economy. His ignorance is culpable and constitutes a real threat to my children’s future safety and prosperity.

The truth is that for quite a few generations now we have consumed fossil fuels and liberated previously sequestered carbon into the atmosphere with reckless abandon. We are now completely reliant on industrial agriculture and committed to continue to use liquid fuels at least for some time yet.

We must move quickly to address the carbon problem collectively and with full consideration of the impacts of our and previous generations on the opportunity for future generations. Similarly, the cost of any mitigation must also be borne collectively and farmers should not be compelled to again absorb the cost of this structural reform on behalf of the rest of society.

In truth it is now a matter of highest order for global stability that we empower our farming communities and reprioritise the agricultural enterprise to the top of the political and social agenda.

FarmOnline
Pete Mailler

Pete Mailler

is a farmer on the Qld/NSW border and a co-founder of the Country Party of Australia
Date: Newest first | Oldest first

READER COMMENTS

Geoff
11/02/2015 1:14:45 PM

WHO are the 9% who think climate change isn't happening? Climate has changed since the beginning of time. Farmers must know that the innocent CO2 is plant food. Once a hypothesis is falsified, the game is up. The falsified hypothesis is that human-caused carbon dioxide emissions are causing dangerous global warming. http://tiny.cc/h4mvtx
Rob
11/02/2015 12:51:20 PM

It's easy to say "the majority of Aussies" don't think climate change is occurring but is that true? We don't have to wonder, we can go here: https://www.google.com.au/url?sa= t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4 &cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDEQFjAD&url =http%3A%2F%2Fwww.csiro.au%2F~%2F media%2FCSIROau%2FOutcomes%2FClim ate%2FAdapting%2FClimate%2520atti tudes%2F2013%2520Fourth%2520surve y%2520of%2520Australian%2520attit udes%2520to%2520climate%2520chang e.pdf&ei=B9raVOnBJMql8AXDz4HQBg&u sg=AFQjCNHPHHt3I2JWfnVjkSrv8K4ysf iUEg&bvm=bv.85761416,d.dGc Only 9% of Australian's think it isn't happening.
Rob
11/02/2015 12:47:15 PM

Gumtree, I am not advocating the consumption of bats wings and frogs skins for you or for me. If you actually read my comment you will see I pointed out that some scientists disagree. There is uncertainty. The central question is what to do in face of an uncertain result of emissions as usual. You apparent choice to simply ignore scientists who say things you don't like isn't the least bit impressive.
Rob Moore
11/02/2015 12:46:44 PM

In the early days of my computer/blogging career(6-7 yrs ago)- this was my hobby horse. My gut told me it was a scam and when Rudd gave MLA $11M on top of their bloated levy budget- to look into farting belching cows I knew it was Disneyland! With money like that being thrown around - do we think MLA is going to say the methane cycle from cattle is neutral- here -have your money back? I have since met some of the world's best independent scientists and I'm CERTAIN it is all bs and just a money transfer/UN scam! The member for Goldman Sachs still won't give up on it because the trough is .....
Rob
11/02/2015 12:40:33 PM

Gumtree, I quite obviously did not say simply take what is being rammed down you throat. I clearly pointed that some scientists disagree. The discipline of risk management involves considering the possible futures, the risks associated with them and what measures should be taken. It is very straightforward to allow for multiple possible futures and manage the risks. That is a central part of farming. When you have disagreement among seasonal weather forecasters you don't choose the one you like and ignore the others. You create a farm plan that is resilient in the face of each scenario.
Clarrie
11/02/2015 12:37:10 PM

Excellent article and a measured response to what lies ahead. If more of our farmers are of Pete Mailler's quality, then we are in good hands. I feel for the ones who can't, or won't, see what is before them, however. It won't be a rude awakening, but a tragic one.
Hydatid
11/02/2015 11:55:02 AM

Well done Pete....it is indeed about probabilities....and thank god you never once used the term "deniers"....just another quasi religious term that diminishes the science. Man is smart enough to adapt although not without losses, but the other great unknown are the "threshold" events - trigger points regarding natural phenomena (Winds, currents etc) that cause rapid change.....time to start building some nuclear power plants, hopefully in my backyard !!
qlander
11/02/2015 11:01:33 AM

Getting into the political swing of things, ay Pete.
Gumtree
11/02/2015 10:57:24 AM

Rob, if you went to your doctor and he told you that you had cancer simply because your a hypochondriac and had little else to worry about and he told you that if you give him all your money and take his potion of bats wings and frogs skins, wouldn't you go to another doctor for a second opinion? BUT your suggesting to me to take the bats wings and frog skins regardless of of all other serious intelligent debate and ignore all other medical advice. Not very clever are you, Rob?
Gumtree
11/02/2015 10:44:17 AM

James in Brisbane, some people believe that a natural part of the atmosphere (CO2 ) which all plants breath and would die without, is a nasty pollutant. Some people believe some very strange things, James, and obviously those beliefs are NOT very accurate are they? You obviously have some very strange beliefs James, don't you?
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Burrs under my saddlePete Mailler is a farmer on the Queensland/NSW border. His perspective and opinions are borne from seeing more than one side of many problems in his various farm leadership roles and in wanting to ensure a future for his children in agriculture.

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