A weather eye on climate change

The climate debate has misled people about the quality of the science around climate change

A FEW years ago my oldest daughter came home from school in a state of high agitation. I quizzed her on what was concerning her, to which she replied angrily that I was killing the polar bears.

Apparently she had learned at school that our collective continued use of petrol and diesel was causing global warming and this was threatening the bears. In her young mind this was interpreted as the fuel use on our farm was directly and singularly the cause of the problem.

“My agricultural science training compels me to rely on good science in forming my own opinion”

I was more than a little disgusted that climate activists were able to terrorise my daughter in such a way. However, as much as it pains me to say so, it did cause me to check my own assumptions and attitudes to climate change.

In my farming system we employ strategies to manage and mitigate as much as possible the risk associated with climate variability. I am as prepared for the impact of climate change as anybody, particularly in the context of my likely tenure in the farming business. Furthermore, the farming systems deployed on my farm are also probably the most environmentally responsible systems in terms of water, soil and atmospheric considerations.

However, farmers are demonised by biased emission assessments and a hypocritical latte-sipping green set who have no real appreciation for the fact that modern agriculture is essential to sustain the global population.

Don’t misunderstand me, I am deeply concerned about the future my children will inherit. I am not a devotee of the late Reverend Malthus, but I do see real problems in the libertarian approach to climate and environment that at best suggests clever people will solve the future problems, or at worst simply suggests it is not a problem today so we do not need to do anything about it.

The climate debate has misled people about the science and more importantly about the quality of the science around climate change. In considering my daughter’s emotional and slightly illogical thought process, it seems the broader debate mirrored her reaction and shifted too quickly to a black and white, believe or deny faith-driven conflict.

My agricultural science training compels me to rely on good science in forming my own opinion. As a father and husband I have learned that life and its problems are rarely black and white. As a practising farmer I know that nature is similarly complex. Middle age has brought me a more pragmatic outlook.

We know that climate is continually changing. These changes have been relatively slow throughout history and there has been ample opportunity for humanity to cope and adapt over our much shorter history. We also know that the effects of relatively rapid climate change coupled with the stage of earth’s Precession was instrumental in the evolutionary success of our species in the Rift Valley.

At this time there is an extraordinary and unprecedented level of scientific consensus around climate change with 97 per cent of climate scientists agreeing that man is contributing to climate change. This is a higher degree of consensus than exists around the effects of smoking or asbestos. So what can we draw from this consensus?

“From an agricultural perspective we see modelling suggesting a 6pc decline in global wheat production with every degree of global warming”

We know that atmospheric CO2 levels are now at the highest levels since humankind has existed. We also know that CO2 and other gases have a greenhouse effect trapping radiant heat in the atmosphere and incidentally increasing global oceanic and atmospheric temperatures. We know this system is incredibly complex and well buffered so the full impacts of the changes are difficult to predict accurately. We know that atmospheric CO2 levels have risen with a strong correlation to human exploitation of fossil fuels.

I am the first to admit that I am not a climate scientist and happily not an expert on all aspects of the arguments. This gives me a massive out in the underlying conflict. However, there are useful tools to use in making risk assessments in uncertain circumstances.

It is helpful to ask how likely an outcome might be and then ask how serious that outcome would be.

The current climate models show a high degree of variability in rate of warming and similarly a high degree of variability in the impacts of that warming. Our own CSIRO has recently reported that, in line with universally forecast increases in weather volatility, Australia will likely see a doubling of the incidence of devastating floods this century.

From an agricultural perspective we now see modelling suggesting a 6pc decline in global wheat production with every degree of global warming. I think these models are founded on too many assumptions to be useful. However, the more important concerns are around an increasingly volatile production environment overlaid against a just in time supply management culture. This predisposes the market to acute shortages which will lead to inevitable social and political instability.

“If the outcomes of unchecked climate change are only half as bad as the moderate predictions, the human cost warrants immediate action”

Some of the more credible modelling suggests that if global temperatures reach two degrees of warming our existing agricultural systems and infrastructure will only reliably support a global population of four billion. Four degrees of warming will cause even greater disruption to global agriculture and resultant production may only reliably sustain one and a half billion people. It begs a slightly terrifying question about who and how we will decide which portion of our population will survive.

Let us go back and ask the important question. How likely is two degrees of warming? The answer is very likely. How likely is disruption to agriculture? The answer is very likely. How likely is it that we won’t be able to reliably feed the global population? The answer is very likely, but the extent is unclear. How serious would such a disruption be? The answer is that it would be devastating as isolated occurrence, but catastrophic if frequency increases.

I have already referenced Reverend Malthus and his predictions of dire outcomes from overpopulation as far back as 1798. I am not a Malthusian enthusiast, but if the outcomes of unchecked climate change are only half as bad as the moderate predictions, the human cost warrants immediate action or at least commitment to meaningful action.

“We must move quickly to address the carbon problem collectively ... and farmers should not be compelled to again absorb the cost of this structural reform on behalf of the rest of society”

As with all problems it is essential to acknowledge and define the problem before you can hope to meaningfully address it. I think back to my daughter’s angst and consider my obligation to provide a better future for her often. It frustrates me that today’s politicians regard this issue with little more consideration than garnering short term party advantage.

Joe Hockey, our Treasurer, announced in a television interview recently that he could not conceive any circumstance where climate change could affect the economy. His ignorance is culpable and constitutes a real threat to my children’s future safety and prosperity.

The truth is that for quite a few generations now we have consumed fossil fuels and liberated previously sequestered carbon into the atmosphere with reckless abandon. We are now completely reliant on industrial agriculture and committed to continue to use liquid fuels at least for some time yet.

We must move quickly to address the carbon problem collectively and with full consideration of the impacts of our and previous generations on the opportunity for future generations. Similarly, the cost of any mitigation must also be borne collectively and farmers should not be compelled to again absorb the cost of this structural reform on behalf of the rest of society.

In truth it is now a matter of highest order for global stability that we empower our farming communities and reprioritise the agricultural enterprise to the top of the political and social agenda.

FarmOnline
Pete Mailler

Pete Mailler

is a farmer on the Qld/NSW border and a co-founder of the Country Party of Australia
Date: Newest first | Oldest first

READER COMMENTS

Max
23/02/2015 7:50:48 AM

Nico your lot have the potential to become the most dangerous group in the history of the world with things they are trialling and have in the pipeline. Your lot believe the world is warming and use adjusted data as proof and as a result are planning ways of 'cooling' the world. Lacing the atmosphere with chemicals which will reflect the suns heat away from reaching the world in their deranged bid to cool the supposed warming world is not only extreme but also criminal. Destruction of the world for our own supposed survival.Typically you have never answered which is better warming or cooling.
Gumtree
23/02/2015 8:15:43 AM

Well Nico , now is your moment in history. Which is better , to live on a warm planet or to live on a cold planet ?
Black Stump
23/02/2015 10:36:43 AM

Nico please supply with EVIDENCE and assertions are not evidence, that the 0.7 deg C warming we have had in the last 150 years has in any way been bad ?
nico
23/02/2015 3:29:52 PM

No, Max, you'll have to do better. None of your assertions and accusations are evidence. They are merely your assertions. Before engaging in an argument, you really need to get your head around the scientific process. Shouting abuse proves nothing. And please lose your obsession with "gods" and "leaders" and "your lot". None of these fantasies are real. Science doesn't operate that way.
Max
24/02/2015 7:22:05 AM

Nico you are delusional at best and an outright fool at worst. Your 'science' isn't science at all as if a scientific theory is proven wrong by actual events it is usually scrapped, eg as in the flat earth theory, but no not with AGW. The data is adjusted to try to come up with the desired outcome but adjust it as much as you like it still doesn't change the reality. BOM continually come up short on the actual reality and as a result we end up with false results. The latest example TC Marcia said to be a cat 5 cyclone by BOM modeled / adjusted figures whereas it was a cat 3 or 4 at best.
Black Stump
24/02/2015 8:19:08 AM

I think this is what you may be looking for Max. http://joannenova.com.au/2015/02/ category-five-storms-arent-what-t hey-used-to-be/
nico
24/02/2015 9:51:46 AM

Max, actual events are described here by NASA: "All three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880. Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years." If you have evidence to refute this statement, please produce it. (Preferably without the personal abuse.) See: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp /
Max
24/02/2015 11:10:05 AM

Nico, are they 'actual events' or are they arrived at with adjusted data, adjusted raw data included. Nico, how is it that the original theory was called Global Warming but when the real world evidence wasn't stacking up with the theory, the name was changed to AGW and then when the real measured temps weren't showing the desired results, they began homogenising and adjusting temps to arrive at the desired outcomes. And you have the gall to call it science. Make enough changes to anything feed into a computer model and you can get any desired result out. eg BOM's performance and record claims.
nico
24/02/2015 12:08:13 PM

Max, I asked for evidence, not more of your baseless assertions. You have demonstrated that you don't understand data collection. You seem unaware of international scientific research. And you fail to understand the terms 'global warming' and 'global climate change', both used by scientists, with distinct meanings. And you seem to have persuaded yourself that observation and measurement have not occurred. All of this convinces me that you are driven by ideology alone. Please do your scientific homework before embarrassing yourself further.
Old Crow
24/02/2015 12:41:08 PM

I can 100 per cent assure you, Nico, the only one driven by ideology is you.
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Burrs under my saddlePete Mailler is a farmer on the Queensland/NSW border. His perspective and opinions are borne from seeing more than one side of many problems in his various farm leadership roles and in wanting to ensure a future for his children in agriculture.

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