Research links climate change patterns to El Nino

27 Jul, 2009 02:10 PM
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A study by three Australasian researchers just published in the Journal of Geophysical Research shows that most of the late 20th century global warming and cooling can be attributed to natural climate processes.

The research paper by Associate Professor Chris de Freitas, a climate scientist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand, and two science advisors to the Australian Climate Science Coalition, John McLean and Professor Bob Carter, finds that the Southern Oscillation is a key indicator of changing global atmospheric temperatures seven months later.

The findings follow research released earlier this month by US scientists which shows that maximum solar activity and its aftermath have impacts on earth that resemble La Niña and El Niño events in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

In a statement to the media, lead author John McLean said that when climate modellers could not accurately determine historical temperatures "they added a 'human influence' to their models".

"This paper shows that the missing component was the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)," Mr McLean said.

"The difference in output when using these two factors is that one predicts a continuing rise in temperature and the other predicts fluctuations according to the ENSO.

"The data particularly over the last 10 years indicates that the latter is correct.

"The IPCC acknowledges in its 4th Assessment Report that ENSO conditions cannot be predicted more than about 12 months ahead so until that situation improves projected global temperatures are likely to be quite inaccurate."

The group says that the surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely.

"We have shown that internal global climate-system variability accounts for at least 70 per cent of the observed global climate variation over the past half-century," Associate Professor de Freitas said.

Climate researchers have long been aware that ENSO events influence global temperature, for example, causing a high temperature spike in 1998 and a subsequent fall as conditions moved to La Niña.

The groups says it is also well known that volcanic activity has a cooling influence, and as is well documented by the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption.

The new paper draws these two strands of climate control together and shows by demonstrating a strong relationship between the Southern Oscillation and lower-atmospheric temperature, that ENSO has been a major temperature influence since continuous measurement of lower atmospheric temperature first began in 1958.

According to the three researchers, ENSO-related warming during El Niño conditions is caused by a stronger Hadley Cell circulation moving warm tropical air into the mid-latitudes.

During La Niña conditions the Pacific Ocean is cooler and the Walker circulation, west to east in the upper atmosphere along the equator, dominates.

Professor Bob Carter, one of four scientists who recently assisted Senator Steve Fielding in questioning the justification for the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, says that this paper has significant consequences for public climate policy.

"The close relationship between the Southern Oscillation and mean global temperature, as described in the paper, suggests future global temperatures will continue to change primarily in response to ENSO cycling, volcanic activity and solar changes," Prof. Carter said.

"Our paper confirms what many scientists already know: which is that no scientific justification exists for emissions regulation, and that, irrespective of the severity of the cuts proposed, an emissions trading scheme will exert no measurable effect on future climate."

* The research paper abstract can be viewed by clicking here.

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Australian Climate Science CoalitionSource: http://www.auscsc.org.au
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READER COMMENTS

phil
27/07/2009 3:38:25 PM

why do you report this pseudo science?
Qlander
27/07/2009 3:57:16 PM

So its new scientific information built on already existing scientific information. Up against some very large egos and reputations. It will be interesting to see who wins. One thing you can be sure of the egos will fight ferociously.
Trugger
27/07/2009 5:44:12 PM

Wow! This will heat up the debate in Australia. The pollies are going to have a field day politicising this one.
Loc Hey
27/07/2009 7:53:08 PM

And Krudd And Wrong will just ignore the evidence because they are not interested in the truth or the facts, they are only interested in getting there new tax in no matter what.
Bluey
27/07/2009 9:49:26 PM

But it will exert a measurable effect on future taxes, levies and ridiculous new rules...
Joe
27/07/2009 11:48:54 PM

See http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/ 07/24/old-news/ In short, the de Freitas et al article compares year by year fluctuations in El Nino and temperatures. But the researchers' method effectively ignores the overall warming trend over the period considered. They don't identify anything new and their results don't support what they are saying in their press releases.
sladepb
28/07/2009 3:23:00 AM

I think it important that if you are going to publish this information regarding this study that the funding trail for the research be clearly articulated alongside the discussion. Science needs to be open and subject to full analysis including how the research was funded. The relationship between the ACSC and Strike Resources is fairly openly documented. Both sides of this debate need to be open to challenge and falsification analysis. That should include the funding trails for the "science" itself.
cgdco
28/07/2009 4:56:24 AM

Further evidence, and further "inconvenient truth". Particularly for the zealots and the brain-washed. Watch for the emotive slogans, note Phil above "pseudo", when attacking the greatest goldmine for the left since 19th century class conflict.
bill
28/07/2009 8:00:18 AM

Posted by sladepb, 28/07/2009 an exellent point indeed. There have been numerous articles here quoting certain scientists who are paid by green organisations but the money trail isn't always, if ever apparent, it's usually the gospel according to the well-known scientist.
krakkatinny
28/07/2009 8:37:36 AM

Goody, at last some sensible scientific proof is being advertised and should be taken up by the media. The time should soon come for people to realise that the forces of nature are a far greater influence than we will ever be, in determining global warming - what we are guilty of is Environmental Vandalism and this is the very urgent condition of the earth that we should be addressing - not blaming global warming, which is a natural occurrence. If we fix our attitude toward the raping and pillaging of the remaining natural resources and find new ways to get our needs without their destruction, maybe the cycles will be less traumatic for us to endure.......
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If pastorals were fair dink-um about wild dogs there would be a ban on ownership of dogs north
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I worked with Chamberlain and CJD in the 70's and we had the original Charlie over here. He had