THE saying "don't count the grain until it's in the bin" has never been more apt than this year, as the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) has further downgraded its production estimate to 15 million tonnes for the State, an 11 per cent drop on its last month's estimate.
Widespread, multiple and severe frost events during September and October across the State's grainbelt are responsible for the downgrade from GIWA's mid year estimate of close to 18mt.
While the full effects will not be known until harvest concludes, little has been left untouched by frost damage as affected regions include the south-east districts of the Geraldton zone, to a wide area of the Kwinana zone, the Lakes region in the Albany zone and the Mallee districts in the Esperance zone.
"The cumulative effects of the multiple frost events have resulted in heavy losses for individual growers through to a range of losses from around 10 to 30pc for many growers," said GIWA's November crop report.
"The final impacts of the frosts will not be known until harvest is complete and there remains downside potential to the forecast, particularly in the areas centred around the districts of Miling, Dalwallinu, Beacon, east Merredin, Corrigin, Lake Varley, Hyden and the Mallee districts in Esperance."
In some paddocks in the Kwinana east zone up to 95pc damage has been recorded and GIWA has estimated that up to 40pc of the Albany zone has 40pc yield loss - which relates to a potential loss of 2mt - and the Mallee district in the Esperance zone has had about 150,000t stripped from its potential.
As well as the production downgrade, grain quality in the Geraldton and west Kwinana zone has also taken a hit from the frosts where grain fill was occurring during the frost period, however Albany and Esperance zones grain quality is expected to be largely unaffected.
"Barley has suffered extensive shrivelled and distorted grains unsuitable for the malting grade, however on balance the quantity of malt grade barley is still expected to be adequate for market requirements," the report stated.
Despite downgrades for cereal crops, canola appears to be a standout this year in regards to yield and quality with average tonnages increasing and oil percentages to be around 48pc.
In the Geraldton zone, canola yields range from 1.8t/ha to more than 3t.ha for very early sown crops, 1.7-1.9t/ha yields with 49pc at Cascade in the Esperance zone.
Moora is recording outstanding yields of about 2.6t/ha, Wubin 2t/ha and Wongan Hills 2.2t/ha.
Lupins are also performing well, with crops at Eradu yielding up to 3t/ha and new variety Jurien outperforming Mandelup by 600kg/ha in the Geraldton zone while lupin crops with poor early pod set in the Lakes districts are expected to turn around.
CBH is forecasting 13-15mt this season, which is down from its September forecast of 15-17mt.
As part of GIWA's 15mt forecast, around 1.5mt is expected to be retained on-farm or traded outside the CBH system.
Except for the Albany zone, CBH harvest deliveries are now at a strong pace and in the Geraldton zone, there is significant pressure with greater than expected canola deliveries coming in.
So far the zone has received 800,000 tonnes with more than half of that delivered in the last week.
The Kwinana zone is also progressing well with around 550,000t received so far into the CBH system as growers harvest their best crops first.
Farm Weekly understands growers in the Albany region are still around two to three weeks away from getting started, particularly along the south coast where the cold winter and cooler spring has delayed crop development.
Less than 20,000t of grain has been received so far, compared to the same time last year of 80,380t delivered.
Esperance zone has received around 200,000t of grain so far and while weather has warmed up, showers over the weekend have slowed things again slightly, with Ravensthorpe receiving 1mm, Esperance Aero 2mm, Salmon Gums 0.2mm and Munglinup 2mm.
The Bureau of Meteorology's three-month outlook is predicting November to January rainfall to be above average across WA and warmer than average temperatures in western WA but cooler than average in southern WA.
