CBH has reduced its 2010 crop estimate by half a million tonnes this week due to the continuing dry crop conditions and lack of moisture throughout most of the WA Wheatbelt.
CBH's most recent forecast was a conservative eight million tonne crop but it shaved that outlook to 7.5mt on Monday.
That estimate could by slashed by another 500,000 tonnes over the next week or two in the face of a bleak weather outlook with no rain expected.
The reduction means CBH grain delivery services will also be slashed by 25 per cent with 50 delivery points in the CBH network of 200, expected to be shut or reduced this harvest.
The exact locations will be determined in the next few weeks as CBH prepares its scaled-back harvest operation plan.
CBH grain operations manager Colin Tutt said growers were coming under the most stress and pressure due to the warm conditions and lack of moisture in the whole Kwinana Zone, lower Geraldton Zone, and in the Albany Zone's north.
Depending on how warm it gets over the next week with no rain on the horizon, Mr Tutt said WA could deliver 7mt to CBH bins this harvest.
But if the rain does arrive to provide critical relief, it will not increase production over the new estimate.
"If rain arrives over the next week or so it won't stop the crop volume from going backwards," he said.
"We won't get any growth but the crop would stay at 7.5mt."
CBH's current WA wheat crop estimate is 4.5mt to 4.7mt.
Canola delivery is expected to about 900,000t and barley 1.6mt to 1.7mt.
MarketAg director Richard Vincent said CBH's total estimates and for the wheat crop, were "on the money".
Mr Tutt said WA was expecting to receive average spring rainfall but it had not arrived.
"There are a lot of stressed and very concerned growers out there," he said.
"An 8mt crop is definitely out of reach now.
"What happens from here really depends on how hot it gets over the next 10 days."
CBH issued a statement to growers saying the co-operative was still planning for a well below-average harvest in many areas of the State but estimates up to 50 sites may not open for deliveries this season or many may open for limited services only.
CBH is yet to confirm the exact sites and services that will be available.
"As a grower-owned co-operative we regret any reduction in the availability of our regular service levels," CBH said last week in its weekly grower communication.
"However, the fixed cost of opening sites for small tonnages is very high and ultimately has to be carried by all growers.
"We assure growers that we will do everything possible to make sure growers do not have to cart an unreasonable distance and that the additional carting costs growers may face is a big factor in our planning.
"In the lead-up to and during harvest CBH will regularly review site availability and services as unexpected rainfall and quality issues can alter growers' delivery requirements."
WA growers delivered about 10.6mt to CBH last year and 12.6mt in 2008.
That came following a drought-affected year in 2007 where only 8.5mt was returned.
This year's crop may also struggle to beat the 6.4mt produced in 2006 when drought hit the State's farmers extremely hard, particularly in the northern Wheatbelt.
Emerald Grain WA manager Rob Proud said his company had also reduced its production estimates "quite quickly" in the face of the warm weather.
Emerald cut its WA crop estimate from 8.5mt to 8mt on Monday and like CBH expects that volume to fall by another 500,000t if rain fails to appear in the next five to 10 days.
Mr Proud said Emerald's estimates did not include all grains but the reduction came mostly from growers in the Kwinana zone.
Emerald currently has Kwinana producing 2mt to 2.5mt; down from about 4.5mt last year.
He said there was still a lot of potential for the Albany Zone crop which could still hold up and survive if rain did not appear over the next few weeks.
Mr Proud said Esperance was looking good and was on track to produce a bigger crop than last year's final total.
He said the current forecast of 1.8mt to 1.9mt was better than the 1.55mt the zone produced and delivered to CBH in 2009.
Mr Proud said there had been some forward selling opportunities taken in the high price market.
But growers were also selling some old season crop they had been holding onto, receiving some outstanding returns.
"We've had a good response to some of the products we are offering which growers like, that give them the option and great flexibility of rolling into next year and delivering their crop later, depending on prices," he said.
Mr Proud said wheat and barley prices were still well above $300/t.
He said some growers were holding off on selling barley believing the price could go higher at or after harvest time.
He said malt barley was fetching around $340/t and feed barley about $290/t which was well above early season levels.
"We didn't think barley would be much chop this year but we have seen some strong high prices," he said.
