Wet spring ahead for South West WA

27 Aug, 2010 12:35 PM
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The chances of exceeding median rainfall for September to November. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Click to enlarge.
The chances of exceeding median rainfall for September to November. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Click to enlarge.

The national outlook for total rainfall over spring (September to November), is neutral for most of the country, except for southwest WA where a wetter than normal spring ahead is predicted by the Bureau of Meteorology.

According to the Bureau, for the September to November period, the chance of exceeding median rainfall is between 60 and 65 per cent in southwest WA (see map).

This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six years would be expected to be wetter than average over these areas, while about four years would be expected to be drier during the spring period.

According to the Bureau, there is also a slight shift toward a wetter spring in northeastern NSW, along with a shift toward a drier spring in Tasmania and southern Victoria.

The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia is dominated by the recent warm conditions in the Indian Ocean as well as a cooling trend in the equatorial Pacific Ocean associated with a La Niña.

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall is between 40pc and 60pc over the rest of the country, with odds shifting to above 60pc over a small region in northern NSW, and odds decreasing to below 40pc favouring drier conditions over small parts of southern Victoria and northern Tasmania.

Bureau of MeteorologySource: http://www.bom.gov.au

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