THE current season has been described as a "slap in the face" to WA's sheep flock rebuilding efforts, but looking forward producers won't be the ones who suffer from the current mass exodus, according to Agriculture and Food Department senior research officer Kimbal Curtis.
The demand from live exports, processors and the Eastern States combined with a continued poor season over the majority of the State's sheep producing areas, will ensure the number of sheep exiting the system will continue.
Already, in the first 12 days of this month 146,838 sheep and 3546 cattle crossed the WA/SA border, with a total of 203,375 sheep and 18,065 cattle trucked over during September.
For the year to date, 478,160 sheep and 62,963 cattle have exited the State via the Ceduna border checkpoint.
An employee at the checkpoint, who has worked there since 1986, said he had never seen anything like the current influx of stock and it did not look like slowing down anytime soon.
Mr Curtis said the best guess as to WA's current flock number was just over 15 million head, up until the middle of this year.
But even with a good season next year, he said a rapid rebound of the WA sheep flock was unlikely because there simply would not be an availability of cheap sheep in order for producers to rebuild their flocks.
He said the main concern was the number of young ewes leaving the system and where that would leave the industry going forward.
"Large numbers of wethers going out are one thing, that impacts on wool production, but large numbers of ewes heading east is a concern," Mr Curtis said.
"There's also been quite a kick in the number of sheep going to live exports.
"The flock number is going to drop, particularly the number of replacement ewes going into the flock.
"I don't recall us ever having gone in this direction in the past, it's certainly a new set of circumstances that we're facing."
Mr Curtis said producers who had reduced flocks were likely to shift to other enterprises, but processors and other businesses who were locked into sheep as their raw material were going to face big challenges ahead, just as they had in the last few years.
"It's difficult to see a rapid rebound in numbers and I don't think anyone is predicting that," he said.
"Just when we thought things had bottomed out and were starting to improve, we've had this horrendous season and disposing of animals while they're still healthy is a wise decision for producers if they can't carry them on.
"We're still struggling to keep the replacements going in and these seasonal conditions are not going to help.
"Even if we had a good season next year and produced lots of lambs, it would still depend on peoples' decisions on whether they want to rebuild their flocks or take advantage of the high prices.
"It's difficult to see the prices available for lambs retreating much, processors are hungry to consume what they can - it seems there is an almost insatiable demand for lamb, live exporters have got very good markets that they're undersupplying and demand is certainly greater than what they've been able to get hold of.
"So there is going to be an ongoing tension between how much can be put on a boat or into a processing plant versus what producers keep on farm.
"I suspect those producers who have taken a cut in their flocks, if they get a good season coming up, those who can expand other enterprises such as cropping, will take advantage because it's a quick fix.
"There is no easy, cheap supply of sheep to rebuild."
Mr Curtis said a patchy season next year may see some trading of sheep within the State, but that would not help the overall flock number, just as the current trading between WA and the Eastern States was not helping the national flock size.
But he said some of the sheep being sold to the east would have otherwise been slaughtered, so at least they were staying in the system to help rebuild the Australian flock.
Mr Curtis said the department's livestock program for sheep was at the moment focused on providing farmers with the tools needed to rebuild the flock when conditions were right.
"We want to make certain that every ewe possible can get pregnant, every pregnant ewe produces a lamb and raises that lamb," he said.
"Our number one priority is rebuilding the flock, but this current season is a real slap in the face."
Mr Curtis said his advice to producers considering selling sheep was to think it through and decide what the plan was, giving careful consideration to whether they could afford to carry stock through.
He said selling off wethers first, then the oldest ewes and trying and retain young breeding stock was a tried and true strategy, which worked for many producers in the Eastern States during their drought years.
"The concern here is that those young would-be replacement ewes that are attracting such high prices to go into the Eastern States to restockers, that we're not getting that cohort in," he said.
"I think growers here will work out how many ewes they can carry and keep as many of those.
"If they are losing next year's maiden ewes because they're selling them, then they will probably get a better drop out of the remaining ewes but still on the back of a small flock."
Producers should consider what feed and water requirements are necessary to carry stock over and ensure they did not get into any sort of animal welfare situation, Mr Curtis said.
"If they are concerned about it, then producers need to make the decision to quit animals early and take advantage while they're still in a good condition for sale and also while prices are at the level they are," he said.
"I wouldn't be recommending selling just to take advantage of prices, it should be because they can't carry them forward or believe that it's better they do quit them now."
