A BEEF shortage in WA could see the end of at least one of the State's abattoirs and push saleyard cattle prices towards record levels, according to cattle producer and retailer Kevin Armstrong.
Mr Armstrong told Farm Weekly back in February that a shortage of beef was looming and it seems his prediction was correct, but it may be worse than first thought.
Speaking this week, Mr Armstrong said in June through to September next year, he believed prices would peak at record levels, but those record prices would more accurately reflect producers' costs.
"Cattle prices are high, grain prices are high and everybody is accepting it along the line, but when those cattle come off grain and they need to be replaced, the replacement cattle won't be there," Mr Armstrong said.
"I think anybody trying to buy beef in the June-September period next year should be prepared to pay record prices, I've got no doubt that we're going to see prices we've never seen before.
"Having said that, the farmer needs to get those prices because the cost of everything else has continued to go up but the price of beef hasn't.
"The cow-calf producer will finally see some sort of reward.
"We're heading into a situation that we've never seen in WA, it's going to be interesting."
More than 100,000 head of WA cattle have gone through the Ceduna checkpoint this year with November the busiest month to date, but the line of cattle trucks doesn't look like retreating anytime soon.
Mr Armstrong has personally contributed to those figures, having sent some 200 head of his own cattle across the border for agistment in Victoria.
He said the decision to do so was not a difficult one and the cattle had gone onto fantastic feed and were expected to gain about 1.8kg a day.
"They won't come back," Mr Armstrong said.
"They were booked in to Harvey Beef but we had to cancel, we just couldn't finish them off here.
"It did cost us about $240 a head to freight them over there but we'll get $3/kg or better over the hooks, while the equivalent price here is about $2.50/kg.
"We didn't want to send them (over east), but we really didn't have a choice."
Mr Armstrong said he had calves put away to shore up his own beef supplies for his retail store, The Beef Shop, for the next 12 months but would not be feeding cattle for other companies as he had done in the past.
He said he did not think the majority of the retail sector realised just how significant the impact of the shortage would be, and that the result would be them paying more for a body of beef than ever before.
Mr Armstrong said one WA abattoir may not even survive the shortage and would possibly close its doors this year.
"It's going to be pretty tough," he said.
"There are a lot of little boning rooms around that rely on buying the cheaper beef and I think they're going to find it really hard."
He said a rise in retail prices may test the consumer's preference for local beef, but compared to takeaway food prices it would still be a reasonably-priced family meal and would be better quality.
But Mr Armstrong said he did not believe an influx of beef from the Eastern States would ensue, as the conditions over there were such that producers were geared more towards restocking to take advantage of the feed available.
"I think things have really changed, they've come through years of drought and I just don't think they have the cattle numbers for them to be coming back over here in a box," he said.
"Some of these areas haven't had feed for eight years and now they have, so their focus will be on making the most of that.
"They are still buying very strongly over here too, they're not going away anytime soon."
