IF WA can get through September's high risk frost period, the State is looking at a record 17.6 million tonne crop, according to Grain Industry Association of WA (GIWA).
GIWA released its September crop report this week, with a 1.1 per cent increase on the August report's overall estimate and a slight increase of lupin and field pea yields.
However, there has been a 4.6pc drop in predicted oat yields and an 0.8pc drop in canola.
"Crop growth slowed somewhat during August but this in-turn increased crop potential in many districts by reducing evaporation and increasing the amount of soil water available for grain fill," the report states.
"Consequently, crop yield potential has risen slightly but with the impact of several frosts in August yield may still be unfavourable.
"Barley and wheat crops in the north and eastern districts of the Kwinana zone have experienced extensive damage due to frost while elsewhere frost has damaged lupins and canola crops but to a much smaller degree and a better chance of compensatory growth and little final yield loss."
Aphids are being monitored throughout the districts and GIWA is predicting some control is likely to be needed as temperatures rise this month, however overall, there appears to be no significant threat to crop yields or grain quality from pests or diseases.
"All major in-crop paddock operations have been completed in most regions. Some disease management is still needed in the Albany and Esperance port zones, but this is largely restricted to barley," the report said.
In regards to soil moisture, the report is varied, with the northern districts of the Geraldton zone having "adequate" moisture and "very high" in southern zones.
In the Kwinana zone western districts are wet while eastern districts have high levels of soil moisture.
Albany and Esperance zones have experienced significant waterlogging, causing large losses of production while The Lakes region is generally wet and the Mallee districts in the Esperance region having adequate soil moisture.
"The Albany and Esperance zones would benefit greatly from a mild and sunny September," it said.
"Other regions are looking for mild to warm temperatures to allow grain fill to occur in optimum conditions, however a burst of temperatures over 30 degrees Celsius could risk yields and grain quality."
"While a majority of crops could yield well without any further rain for the season, average September rainfall would ensure that the 2016 season sets a record for grain production."
The Bureau of Meteorology's three month outlook to November is showing a likely "above average" rainfall for parts of northern Australian.
For the rest of Australia, the chances of a wetter or drier spring are roughly equal.
In regards to temperatures, warmer days are likely across much of Australia, except eastern NSW and southern Queensland.
Warmer nights are likely for Australia, except south west Australia, north east NSW and south east Queensland.
Climate influences include a weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures which may approach, or briefly exceed, La Niña thresholds.
September is likely to be wetter in localised areas over northwest WA, southern NSW and southern Tasmania, but drier in parts of southern WA.
Department of Agriculture and Food WA (DAFWA) grains industry director Ian Foster said while August rainfall was average or above average for most cropping areas, the winter rain was below average for most the south west and great southern.
"Rainfall totals since April 1 are near average or above average at virtually all locations in the Wheatbelt, thanks to good early season rain," he said.
"August was cooler than average over the Wheatbelt with a series of frost events occurring at approximately weekly intervals.
"The worst events were August 1-3, August 18-20 and August 23-25, with many stations recording long periods of low temperatures, so impacts on crops are likely to be evident."
He said potential yield modelling still indicates high yields in many places, but this does not account for frost and disease impacts.
"Outlooks for seasonal rainfall for September to November are either neutral - no preference for wetter or drier - or for drier than average being more likely."
Mr Foster said in regards to potential wheat yield, seasonal rainfall to date since April has been near average or better at most locations in the cropping area.
"This has added to water availability resulting from summer rain," he said.
"More recently, rainfall in the past three months has been below average for much of the central cropping region and above average along the South Coast,
"Modelled potential yields using rain to the end of August shows little change from last month, indicating well above average potential crop yields in many areas."
He said growers could use DAFWA's Potential Yield on-line tool to predict yields using locally generated water use efficiency and evaporation data.
