Rain prompts revisal of crop outlook

30 Jul, 2009 02:00 AM

CBH last week increased its seasonal outlook for the 2009-10 season because of consistent rainfall during the past month. The crop estimate has been lifted from 8mt-10mt to 10-12mt .

Operations manager Mike Musgrave said WA had a strong base across the majority of cropping areas and was now headed for an average crop.

A strong finish with rain in August and September could increase the size of the crop even further.

"We are feeling quite confident now," Mr Musgrave said.

"We are getting the odd report of too much rain which is always good.

"There are still some areas from Merredin to Hyden that have some challenges but those concerns are decreasing more as the rain comes."

ProFarmer managing editor Richard Koch said local crop conditions were looking quite strong with few areas in trouble.

He said some crops in Australia were sitting on fairly weak levels of sub soil moisture, but as it continued to rain, these areas were becoming smaller and confined to pockets in parts of WA and southern NSW.

They will be reliant on consistent rainfall through the growing season.

"Crops from central NSW up to central Queensland will be less reliant on winter rain because they hold strong levels of subsoil moisture," Mr Koch said.

"If it keeps raining in July and August we could have a fairly sizeable crop based on ABARE's forecast of near record plantings.

"That is something to watch out for.

"How that impacts on global prices will really depend on how yields turn out in the northern hemisphere, but I would not expect it to have a huge impact.

"On the basis of our analysis we are going to run out of wheat by the end of the year.

"We are starting on tight stocks, so a big crop in Australia should not have a major impact."


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