THE WA crop is expected to drop below six million tonnes this week, taking seasonal production to one of its lowest levels for 20 years.
CBH has been shaving its crop estimate by about half a million tonnes per week since mid-September, due to the lingering dry conditions and moisture shortages throughout almost the entire WA Wheatbelt.
CBH was forecasting a conservative 8mt crop in mid-September but the grain bulk handler revised that total last week, forecasting 6.2mt on Friday, October 1.
That estimate was expected to fall another 300,000t by Monday and is likely to fall further with no rain expected on the horizon in the next week.
CBH grain operations manager Colin Tutt said the extent of the crop damage was "unbelievable".
Mr Tutt said the wheat crop would struggle to reach 3.5mt this year; falling 1mt from CBH estimates three weeks earlier.
"It would be a huge ask to get a wheat crop of that size here in WA this season but it could go as low as 3.2mt," he said.
Mr Tutt said if any rain arrived this week or next week, it would "stop the rot" but that appears unlikely.
Crops are pinching and not filling with grain due to the dry, warm conditions.
Mr Tutt said crops in Borden, Lake Grace, Hyden and throughout the Avon Valley that he drove through last week, were all struggling.
"If we get 6.2mt it will be our third lowest total in almost 20 years," he said.
"We've had one 6mt crop in the past 10 years.
"Wongan Hills is a prime grain growing area of the State but I've never seen it this bad."
Mr Tutt said Esperance was looking okay but the crop was also "coming off" fast due to the dry.
He said there had been virtually no spring rain, with the last decent downpour coming in mid-August.
"But it's just not sustainable," he said.
Mr Tutt said crops north of Geraldton were faring well but the ongoing heat and lack of moisture was also starting to impact hard on crop development.
The reduction in grain volume has also forced CBH grain delivery services to be dramatically cut.
In mid-September the 2010-11 harvest program was slashed by 25 per cent with 50 delivery points in the CBH network of 200, expected to be shut or reduced at harvest time.
WA growers delivered about 10.6mt to CBH last year and 12.6mt in 2008.
The good years came following a drought affected year in 2007 where only 8.5mt was returned.
This year's crop now looks likely to fall below the 6.4mt produced in 2006 when drought hit the State's farmers extremely hard, particularly in the northern Wheatbelt.
This season's crop is likely to be the lowest on record for WA since CBH took 5.2mt in 2002-03.
In 1991-92, CBH received 6mt and 5.6mt in 1989-90.
In 1988-89, WA produced 4.6mt and 3.4mt in 1980-81 but those figures are probably not comparable to today's situation, due to a much lower volume of area planted in the face of higher sheep and wool production numbers.
