AS harvest gets into full swing across all WA port zones, the outlook for this cropping season continues to improve, with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) revising total State crop production estimates up to 12.3 million tonnes, with potential for 13mt.
It’s a far cry from last year’s record 16.6mt harvest, but close to a 7pc increase on last month’s GIWA estimates and more than a 2mt improvement on August predictions.
GIWA oilseeds council chairman and author of the latest GIWA crop report, Michael Lamond, said with the exception of the north and north eastern Wheatbelt, the 2017 harvest was now shaping up to achieve average results, rather than ordinary.
He attributed the improvement to late September rains and mild temperatures throughout October which had resulted in a favourable end to the growing season and many crops harvested to date yielding “better than they look”.
“There is definitely more upside and 13 million tonnes is not out of the question,” Mr Lamond said.
“October was just unbelievable for grain fill, those mild temperatures mean that you don’t get heat shock and you get large grain and that can add a lot of tonnes in particular on late-sown crops.
“For the grower there’s quite a bit of variability, so it’s hard to estimate but there’s upside in Esperance, there’s upside in Albany West and The Lakes and in West Kwinana there is probably upside as well.”
Wheat has seen the most significant estimate jump, increasing 9.2pc to just below 6.9mt.
Although very little wheat has been harvested across the State so far, the report indicates it is likely grain yields will be higher than they look with low grain protein.
The outcome is predicted to be similar for barley crops, with early deliveries yielding well, but testing low for protein and some regions have reported germ-end stain.
State barley production is now expected to reach close to 3.2mt – a 4.4pc increase on last month’s estimates.
Mr Lamond said indications were that this trend of low-protein grain would continue due to many growers reducing their nitrogen applications throughout the dry winter and before conditions improved to a far greater extent than was expected.
Canola has seen a 4.7pc increased crop prediction to more than 1.3mt, with most growers delivering high quality canola with good oil quality in the high 40s.
Early canola grain yields have been varied with some good yields and some low yields in the same region.
Lupin estimates have been pushed down 3pc to about 373,000 tonnes, due to low grain yields in the north of the State.
Mr Lamond said southern growing regions would make up a greater percentage of the lupin crop tonnage than normal.
“South of the Great Eastern Highway there’s less area planted but they (lupins) really look sensational,” Mr Lamond said.
“They’re fairly short and just full of pods, the gradual finish to the season has meant that they just kept podding and podding.
“We already know the yield is going to be really good but the area is just not there, and a lot of lupins up north there got sprayed out and fallowed for weed control.”
According to the report, oats for grain harvested so far had been good quality though down in yield.
Total oat production for WA is tipped to reach more than 508,000t.
The Kwinana zone has seen the most significant projected production increase, up more than 15pc on last month’s estimates at 5.7mt.
Most of the increase in wheat tonnage estimates for the State has come from the West and South East Kwinana zones.
The Kwinana West region is well into harvesting canola and barley with deliveries so far good, although some protein issues have been reported with most barley struggling to qualify for malt grade.
In the Kwinana East region, wheat tonnage estimates for the eastern region of the zone have increased significantly and are yielding better than expected.
Growers in the Midlands region have had a late start to harvest and can expect a slight increase in expected tonnages for wheat, barley and canola from the zone’s western regions.
Noodle wheat tonnage is expected to struggle to reach 200,000 tonnes in the region.
In the Esperance zone, close to 2.5mt of grain is expected to be delivered.
Mr Lamond said this could be exceeded by 200,000t to 300,000t.
Canola yields have been lower than expected in the zone, with late sclerotinia and blackleg leaf infection believed to have played a role, along with frost.
Barley has yielded well in the zone, although germ-end stain and low protein are limiting malt grade tonnages.
The Geraldton zone is expected to produce close to 1.2mt, with a slight increase in wheat tonnage estimates to 895,000t.
Lupin and canola estimates have been reduced, with early indications of low yields.
There has been little change in the expectations for the Albany zone which is predicting more than 2.9mt in production this harvest.
There is some evidence of frost damage in the western, southern and Lakes region, although much lower than last year.
Mr Lamond said there was much variability in the region which made estimates difficult.
