ALTHOUGH wintery August conditions have come too late for many growers across the WA grainbelt, a cool and wet September could push WA’s crop to 11 million tonnes this harvest according to the Grains Industry Association of WA (GIWA).
The State’s total crop production was revised up to 10.3 million tonnes in GIWA’s September Crop Report, up just one per cent from its report last month, despite near average or better rainfall in August across most of the grainbelt.
However GIWA oilseeds council chairman and report author Michael Lamond said there was significant potential for that mark to be exceeded by up to 800,000 tonnes if favourable weather conditions unfolded throughout the rest of the month.
“We were pretty conservative with our estimate because we’ve still got September to go and on one hand the crops are later and they have got less potential, but on the other hand because they are later and we are now in a ‘normal-ish’ spring pattern, it’s less likely to be smashed with frost like we did last year,” Mr Lamond said.
“If we do keep getting rain in September and coolish temperatures, there is quite a bit of upside potential.
“We could hit a total of 11mt total, a large proportion of that could be from wheat if we do get some rain and we don’t get frosted in September.”
The report revised wheat crop production up 1.7pc from last month to 5.6mt, while canola, oats and lupins have increased by 1pc or less, with several growers spraying out crops for weed control.
Mr Lamond said August rains may have significantly improved potential in the Kwinana West, Albany and Esperance port zones, however it was too late for those in the Geraldton and Kwinana East zones that were unlikely to see any major improvements.
“No matter what happens now we’re not going to get big changes in the north, in the Geraldton port zone or Kwinana East, it’s too late,” he said.
“Some growers who weren’t going to return seed will now and some who are getting seed and that’s all, will now have a little bit of grain to sell, but because those yields are going to be so low they’re not going to influence the total crop a lot.”
Barley has been revised down 1.3pc to 2.7mt following a frost event in the Esperance port zone, however Mr Lamond said the consequences of the frost remained unknown and there was still potential for improvement in barley crops across several areas.
“They had a frost event in Esperance so we pushed back the barley a little but the barley had been ticking along better than the wheat anyway,” he said.
“We pushed it back a bit but it’s likely that that could go up a little bit as well, that’s probably where the other contribution of 800,000 tonnes could come from.
“The greater proportion will probably be from wheat but may- be an equal to lesser proportion of barley.”
Whether this potential will be realised is another question, with the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) projecting a below-median seasonal rainfall for September to November.
DPIRD research officer Ian Foster the most likely outcomes appeared to be near-normal or drier rainfall, but no models were indicating the likelihood of a wetter than normal spring for southern WA.
Mr Lamond said some growers were hoping a drier than average spring unfolded, with several patches of the State too wet.
“That area around Narrogin is looking a bit wet and also out east there’s a bit of a wet spot around Kulin and the south coast and the Albany port zone as well.
“That was probably the only area where we pushed back barley as little bit because that just kicked off beautifully and now the profile is wet again, but they have the ability to recover.”
p Dry cuts national crop forecast to 36m tonnes. See page 13.
