CSIRO study erodes credibility of key carbon model

02 Nov, 2015 04:40 AM
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35
 
Without accounting for the soil erosion, the accuracy of the carbon accounting is undermined

AUSTRALIA'S method of measuring how much carbon is being stored in its soil is flawed, undermining the credibility of government programs to pay farmers to sequester the climate change inducing element, a new study by CSIRO researchers has found.

The Carbon Farming Initiative begun by the Gillard government and the Abbott-Turnbull government's Direct Action climate policy have spent millions of dollars to encourage farmers to boost carbon levels in their soils to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the productivity of the land.

However, the model used in Australia and elsewhere in the world to calculate carbon storage fails to account for soil and wind erosion, which means the carbon sink is as much as 17 per cent over-estimated over a century, according to the peer-reviewed research published last week in Nature Climate Change.

"The omission of [soil organic carbon] erosion in crop production models has implications for potential...sequestration in Australia and elsewhere," the authors, led by Adrian Chappell, a principal research scientist with CSIRO's Land & Water division, wrote.

Without accounting for the soil erosion, the accuracy of the carbon accounting is undermined and the uncertainty in estimates of how much carbon is being trapped is unnecessarily increased, Dr Chappell said.

Some farmers, for instance, may see no detectable increase in the carbon being stored even though they follow standard practices because their soil is being eroded, and the carbon is ending up elsewhere.

The 2009 "red dawn" that saw a huge region of eastern Australia cloaked in a dust storm.

The 2009 "red dawn" that saw a huge region of eastern Australia cloaked in a dust storm. Photo: Quentin Jones

"They will turn around and blame the management system," Dr Chappell said. "A whole lot of misleading outcomes will be signalled."

Likewise, farmers downwind or in valleys may inadvertently be rewarded for carbon washed or blown on to their land.

Government auction pending

The report comes just days before the Turnbull government is due to hold its second auction under the $2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund.

Sequestration projects such as carbon farming accounted for 28 million tonnes of the 47 million tonnes of abatement during the first auction. The payout for all winning bids totalled $660 million.

A second auction is due to be held on November 4-5, with carbon farming again likely to feature prominently among the bids.

A spokesman for Environment Minister Greg Hunt said the government was confident in the integrity of its modelling.

"Our soil carbon methodologies are world leading and have been verified and endorsed by the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]," he said. "This occurred as recently as September."

Shrinking profit margin

Dr Chappell said the Environment Department was "aware of the significance of soil erosion" for Australia's National Carbon Accounting System.

"I don't know if they are in the process of doing anything about it," he said.

Dr Chappell said measuring the loss of soil could be done by tracking changes to caesium levels as a proxy for erosion.

While fairly inexpensive, the detection of the trace element along with carbon would increase the cost for farmers and would most likely undermine the economics of the process for some.

"There's not enough of a profit margin to make it worthwhile."

The government's website uses an illustration of carbon farming as its main promotion of the ERF.

'Respect science'

The Greens deputy leader, Larissa Waters, said the apparently flawed models used to pay for carbon abatement raised further doubts about the government's Direct Action policy.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on Thursday "said our country's success depends on respecting science", Senator Waters said.

"To live up to that rhetoric, the Prime Minister needs to take note of CSIRO's study and amend the accounting methods," she said. "More broadly, the Turnbull government needs to bring its climate policy in line with science, including by increasing [former prime minister] Tony Abbott's woeful climate targets before Paris."

Mr Turnbull will present Australia's target to cut 2005-level emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030 at this month's climate summit in Paris.

Fairfax Media also sought comment from the ALP.

'Red dawn'

The CSIRO team is studying soil erosion not only for carbon changes but also to understand how the productive capacity of Australia's farmlands is changing.

Major dust storms, such as the "red dawn" event of 2009 that blanketed a region from Sydney to Brisbane and reached as far as the snowfields of New Zealand, are examples of how vulnerable soils are to erosion.

Not only are important nutrients and carbon being blown or leached away, the remaining soil is also more susceptible to further erosion because it can typically hold less moisture and support less vegetation, Dr Chappell said.

The prospect that future climate change will make heavy rainfall events more intense and increase the gustiness of winds will most likely exacerbate the erosion of soils in Australia and elsewhere even as populations and food demand continues to swell, he said.

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READER COMMENTS

Food Producer
11/11/2015 9:41:07 AM

So Nico is now stuck on the idea, derrrrr we won't fertilize or water the crop fellas because the weeds will come up ! Have you ever been outside of your office into the real world or even on a real farm Nico ? Somehow something tells me you haven't. I wonder why I get that feeling ?
nico
11/11/2015 9:17:41 AM

And Pounder does it yet again. The denialist website of Monte Hieb does indeed reproduce a graph credited to celebrated geologist Christopher Scotese. However the conclusion drawn by Pounder - that enhanced atmospheric CO2 is somehow a good thing - is a nonsense. Neither we nor our food crops have evolved to return to a Jurassic climate. Have a look at the MDB website which I have cited for a more rational view of the possibilities.
Bill Pounder
10/11/2015 10:23:03 PM

Yawn, nico, "A reference to a wildly unreliable denialist website.." The graph I quoted is from this guy, Christopher R. Scotese, & here's his CV: http://www.scotese.com/ScoteseCV. htm (and this the paper Scotese quotes for his graph). "However, the new results exhibit considerably higher CO2 values during the Mesozoic, and their downward trend with time agrees with the independent estimates of Ekart and others (1999)." http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils /Reference_Docs/Geocarb_III-Berne r.pdf We remember, of course, that corals evolved in the Ordovician Period when CO2 was about 4,000ppm.
Max
10/11/2015 10:07:07 AM

Nico it is high time you did some homework of your own. Get your head out of your scientific adjusted papers and go take a look at what is happening in the real world, the real unadjusted world that is.
nico
10/11/2015 6:48:08 AM

Food Producer, it seems that you are not prepared to discuss, only to assert. Have you read the MDB paper which I cited? Can you explain where and in what particular it is wrong? Do you understand that ecosystems are more complex than your simple (inaccurate) mantra about C3 plants doing well? Do you know about C3 weeds? Have you ever read a scientific paper? Ever? Please do your homework.
Food Producer
9/11/2015 3:29:45 PM

'' Not recomended for present-day earth agriculture'' says Nico, the biggest load of waffle you will ever hear. C3 plants today will benefit from higher CO2 rates just like they did in the past. If they didn't , why do they enhance the air in greenhouses with it ? Why are the earths deserts greening from the improving atmospheric CO2 rate ? Most C3 plants which are nearly all our food stocks see a %50 growth improvement and an increased WUE with a doubling or 800ppm of atmospheric CO2. What could be wrong with that ? Nico , one can come to only one conclusion, your anti-life.
Max
9/11/2015 2:15:56 PM

Nico you are becoming more idiotic with your comments every day and I quote, " the Jurassic atmosphere supported damp hot tropical environments - not recommended for present-day Earth agriculture!" So Nico are you suggesting that the damp hot tropical environments of today don't support present day Earth agriculture. I would venture to suggest that they support way more agriculture than the colder areas nearer the poles. And for your required evidence, GO TAKE A LOOK. Pounders half truths, as you call them, are way in front of your manipulated adjusted figures and outright untruths.
nico
9/11/2015 1:53:22 PM

And Pounder does it again. A reference to a wildly unreliable denialist website belonging to a mining engineer called Monte Hieb, which Pounder offers as evidence that dinosaurs lived in a high CO2 environment. This is a half-truth at best, and suggests only that the CO2 content of the Jurassic atmosphere supported damp hot tropical environments - not recommended for present-day Earth agriculture! For a look at the Jurassic (but beware of the giant crocodiles) see: http://science.nationalgeographic .com/science/prehistoric-world/ju rassic/
Bill Pounder
9/11/2015 12:23:57 PM

At dinosaur school one would learn that Jurassic Park dinosaurs relished their CO2 1500ppm. Similarities with our Present World. "Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time" - graph is found here. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils /Carboniferous_climate.html
nico
9/11/2015 11:52:48 AM

Food Producer, please read the paper about the Murray Darling Basin which I cited (http://www.mdba.gov.au/kid/files / 2264-ClimateChangeWeedsPestsMDB1. pdf) . Have a look at the scientific references too. If the paper is wrong, please let us know where and in what respect it is wrong.
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