El Nino 'on hold'

16 Jul, 2014 07:44 AM
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12
 
If an El Nino were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event

LATEST climate models suggest while an El Nino remains likely for spring in Australia, it's increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

That's the latest outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology's El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) wrap-up released this week.

BOM reports warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months primed the climate system for an El Nino in 2014.

However, a general lack of atmospheric response over the last month has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

While the majority of climate models suggest El Nino remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength.

As a result, if an El Nino were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event, BOM reports.

"Changes are also occurring in the Indian Ocean," BOM states.

"The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, but it would need to remain negative into August to be considered as an event.

"Negative values are rare when the central Pacific is warmer than average.

"Model outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to return to neutral by spring.

"Conditions in the Indian Ocean may have contributed to the above-average rainfall experienced in southeast Australia during June.

"El Nino is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia.

"Conversely, a negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia."

Bureau of Meteorology
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READER COMMENTS

Over the Hill
16/07/2014 9:56:54 AM

Spring is just a couple of months away and they boffins can't tell us if there is an El Nino event coming. BUT by crikey, in 50 years time they can tell us all what the weather is going to be with absolute certainty. Sceptic, not denier, climate has been changing forever...
Under the hill
16/07/2014 10:42:25 AM

Over the hill - mate weather is day-to-day and climate is a long term trend. Therefore one is much harder to pin-point than the other. Long-term trends are easier to identify that the likelihood of a particular weather event.
Iron Post
16/07/2014 10:58:47 AM

Its the only way the 1% can control the other 99%, Over the Hill. Keep the sheeple in endless fear of imagined and manufactured events fifty years down the track . You can bring in New World Order's using that tactic !
seethelight
16/07/2014 11:06:19 AM

Another failed forecast by the BOM gets the kid gloves treatment. The strong El Nino isn't on 'hold', it just isn't there. The truth is the BOM can only skilfully forecast an El Nino in hindsight which defeats the purpose of a forecast. But they get a lot of good publicity for their global warming cause by offering up, the by now, routine scary scenarios arising from all the bad weather the presence of trace amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes. When the abnormal bad weather fails to materialise the BOM tortures the historical and current weather records into compliance.
wtf
16/07/2014 11:42:30 AM

Iron Post, u and your conspiracies.
whoseyadaddy
16/07/2014 12:31:41 PM

"BUT by crikey, in 50 years" Not even that, they can tell me when it will be winter NEXT year.. that's just amazing...and you know what and they said there would be one the year after that, how do they know theses things, so far in advance ? that's amazing !
Iron Post
16/07/2014 12:38:55 PM

My conspiracies wtf ? I don't think I am the first to say it. Conspiracies or not though its whats happening isn't it.
wtf
16/07/2014 3:11:26 PM

"SNAP", went the salties jaw when I put my hand in its mouth. Like all BIG LIES there has to be a certain amount of truth to climate change. I bet the climate scientists know more about it than me, so I'm not telling them, how to suck eggs. The delineation bw real, natural and blurred CC is not possible. I feel it is this "fuzziness" which gives them the ability to leverage fear, which is a proven method of theirs for making money.
Makka
16/07/2014 3:34:53 PM

I would be willing to bet that if I predicted below av rainfall for every month of the year, on average I would be more accurate than the forecasts we receive from the Met Bureau. I wonder if I would be entitled to some of their multi million $ budget?
Qlander
16/07/2014 4:31:10 PM

Makka: True, I don't mind them trying, but when they don't know, they should say so instead of the fudging, and claiming after the fact that we so often get. My gut feel is that 3 very dry summers in a row, is a long shot. We are moving back into the middle parts of the cycle, so I'm guessing the next 2-3 years will waver around the Av.
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