Recent comments by: Aaron
Grain of Truth
Its funny isn't it? This demand for information of stocks only relates to export stocks. Wonder how East Coast growers will react when they are also compelled to release on farm stock information. What is good for the goose is good for the gander!
Just like the old Single Desk days, an East Coast drought and those growers focussed on domestic opportunities leaving the cost of the pools to WA growers. Socialism until it costs you eh boys!
Agribuzz with David Leyonhjelm
Keep up the good work David. Enjoyed the read.
Maybe the human health system could learn a thing or two from the low cost animal health system. Who cares with so much money at stake. Certainly not big pharma.
Or maybe big pharma sees the writing on the wall for animal proteins given our likely inability to feed a world of pure grain eaters in the near future? Governments are already resourcing 'green' campaigners (eg ABC) in the name of animal welfare concerns but in reality it is just an acknowledgment we will struggle to feed a world full of meat eaters.
Love old darling, I didn't clear the land I farm, but my dear grandaddy did back in the day. I have been in the game long enough to see our farm produce mostly wool to produce totally grain. Are you suggesting CBH's ownership be determined by how much wool we have produced?
Oh dear! Bunge just about to move into Bunbury.
How much of a saving on your storage and handling charges will it take to get you to deliver grain to them rather than CBH? 50c? $1?
I'm up in Calingiri and I'll be doing the sums on moving grain down to them. CBH will be left with the highest cost producers and no ability to cross subsidise.
How much does this devalue CBH? $50-100mill? There's equity you'll certainly never see now ... lets see growers put there wheat where their mouths are, or maybe not eh?
Yeah yeah we heard the same mumbo jumbo about the removal of the single desk Mark. We'll all be rooned right! The reality is we have been $20-30/t better off on every tonne sold since AWB lost the Single Desk.
Another reality is WA is heading for a right royal debt crisis, the likes your dear old grandy could never fathom possible. And when your farm has halved in value see how much money the banks will afford you to grow crops few of us have the cash to crop wall to wall.
Oh and those 'greedy foreign companies' pay you in 7 days ... ironically only after they have outbid CBH eh?
CBH is valued at $6.75-8 billion depending on where the final bid for Graincorp from ADM ends up. You divide this figure by the estimated 4000-5000 CBH shareholders and you can see that WA is blessed with an opportunity to virtually elimate its farm debt problems overnight. A second chance if you like.
We don't want governmnet handouts and subsidies, nor will we have a chance in hell of getting them with the CBH equity that exists.
You have to want to help yourself first Bob before you expect the taxpayer to come bail you out. Why? Because farmers can and want to help themselves. They want their CBH equity and quickly.
CBH is valued at $6.75-8 billion based on ADM's recent takeover bid for Graincorp. With a sharply declining shareholder base of under 5000, you do the sums of what each share could likely be worth.
The future of the family farm and our rural communities lies in the hands of the board of CBH.
We'd welcome them in WA. Going to be more and more canola grown in this State and ADM are the oil specialists, investing billions in upcountry value adding facilities. Hey Jock, you do realise that if your grain is processed upcountry, you don't have to worry about monopolies at ports? Canola is key to reducing storage and handling costs.
' "It's interesting that GrainCorp's share price didn't really attract much interest last year until suddenly a multi-national with a strategy to gain more access to Asia drew attention to the fact that its true value had been overlooked," Mr Carter said. '
Yep even the growers it appears undervalue these assets and that why most of them have passed for cents in the dollar to multinationals with an eye for value. CBH shareholders won't make the same mistake assuming the corporatisation route is taken.
No ... more a case of how government can hamstring an industry to find more grain acres in the South for a nearly bare global grain larder. Poor old AACo is in the right place at the wrong time given the world's demand for beef relative to supply.
The question that really needs to be asked is are farmers themselves actually interested in ensuring they can remain on the land? Corporatise CBH because it is much needed equity that will galvanise loyalty to the system as competition arrives (next year in Bunbury).
Perhaps they know GM wheat is just around the corner? Frost tolerance and the lakes regions becomes a big wheat producer?
QUESTION: And how many WA graingrowers exited leaving their CBH equity on the table? ANSWER: Too many!
Corporatise CBH while it is worth something. CBH would galvanise grower loyalty if the share was worth more than $2.
CBH is standing like a stunned mullet as its monopoly crumbles. Growers are beginning to realise by the time CBH addresses the corporatisation issue, the value of their CBH equity will have tumbled. The next big gaping hole will be plied open in the Geraldton zone through all the idle magnetite capacity. It's a shame because this equity could have ensured farmers deliver to CBH instead of being tempted to sell through other port options to save a few dollars per tonne.
So whose Graincorp shares did Jock sell then?
Jock why did you sell your Graincorp shares?
Think the word you were looking for X AG Soc is meal.
Not enough lupins produced in Wa now, nor is enough canola processed down at Riverland to satisfy domestic demand for a high protein sources. Usually it is soy meal but the world has been short the last 12 months so canola meal from Canada it is.
Jock aren't you the one who sold out your GNC shares. Even when CBH corporatises I will hold onto my shares till a wipeout bid attracts them out of my hands. Truth is you are confused where value actually lies in the supply chain.
The world is awash with paper grain, the stuff you can't eat. The real problem for pricing is manipulation of paper markets with short contracts funded by printing machines. Thats why you gotta take some good prices when they are around Jock.
No doubt about you Jock. This great war you talk of is simply you against your ability to recognise a good price for your grain.
Jock it is cheaper to buy grain direct from the farm for end users than out of the system, from traders. Fewer middle men. No conspiracies here?
Jock traders would like to carry stocks for local end users but the reality is farmers themselves deal direct to cover the large portion of local end user needs, particularly if they have on farm storage.
The container trade does not offer a compelling case for on-farm storage but CBH's charges do. Although pricing opps rarely present until harvest and not in all grains let alone grades, so long as you have a novel price fixing mechanism and strategy (ie SWAPS) you are then using the trade to avoid CBH charges to accure on farm storage assets. Domestic market opportunities are limited to feed markets with cereals or to Pinjarra with canola. But the landscape changes next year with Bunge taking wheat out of Bunbury. Brad will pay for his storage in no time.
Forget about the container trade, Brad. You're in the Bunbury catchment. Fair chance you'll be delivering your grain to Bunge in 2013 and making significant savings on your nieghbours who deliver to CBH.
If CBH was so competitive, the container trade wouldn't exist and Bunge certainly wouldn't be investing in the port of Bunbury.
No Phil you just gave WA back its freight advantage. Get used to negative basis unless you have drought.
The purpose of QE is to socialise unpayable debts to make us all servants to never being able to pay the debt. Its no coincidence Labor has created so much debt on your behalf and will add to it when our own housing market implodes. The dollar is being used to pop the Australian boom bubble.
Without these foreign buyers farmland prices would be 20-30% below where they are now. It is estimated of the 5000+ grain growers in WA, 1000 are farming with equities in the 40-50% range. That is scary!
And with the current season WA is recording we are on track for many other farmers to unfortunately see a worrying deterioration in debt to equity ratios. Will the banks keep funding this growing debt bomb?
Worry about foreign land owners is pure xenophobic fear mongering.