Recent comments by: Deregul8
Agribuzz with David Leyonhjelm
It's the sugar in today's cigarettes that cause cancer. Tobacco was smoked for thousands of years before cancer was invented for profits. Just like cannabis was. Bushie, you can't claim to be a thinker if you let your opinions be shaped by populist opinion otherwise you are no different to the RARAs you at times challenge.
Govt just can't help itself. Grandma and pappy and the 7 kids grew up just fine and dandy on raw milk. Another example of bureaucracy gone mad. Thank god David is a voice of common sense.
Good article David. The only way to fight the war on animal proteins is to focus on decentralised market opportunities. As the credit crunch bites Australian wallets hard, people will be more focused on value and 'bang for buck'.
And clever marketing can easily undo the hard work of the anti meat lobby simply by alerting Joe Blow that this mob are ultimately standing against the free choice to consume animal proteins in bulk. Given the science on health has been doctored for decades we are fighting an extremely entrenched affront. Cholesterol ain't so bad.
Hey jethro. What was the last research revelation that GRDC produced that resulted in more dollars in grain growers pockets. Don't tell me no-till or GM crops or claying sandy soils. they were all innovations produced by farmers who decided they were not seeing enough 'returen on investmnet' from the research dollars they had already been compelled to cough up. Next time you read the Groundcover magazine look at how many stories are on farmer innovation independent of GRDC.
Munro as usual playing the man not the facts. Australian high quality wheat is once again fetching record premiums with the basis the only thing delivering a profit to producer balance sheets for many with a harvest. Something that was never possible with the management of AWB pilfering hard earned grower premiums for their retirements and shareholders. What a blight on history it was! Jock fell for the spin hook line and sinker.
Spot on David. What's worse, some shareholders see a solvency test ahead for CBH as the 'evil multinationals' seek to destroy the monopoly through targeted port and upcountry investment, and cannot get their equity out. The traders need only crack open the Kwinana zone which is CBHs cash cow and the dream is over for the co-op and its agsoc disciples.
The only markets that fail are ones that are over regulated or interferred in by bureaucrats who have never been in business themselves, or globalist henchmen (central bankers) who are mobilising the destructive forces of printed money and unabated debt creation.
So Meg you get off your butt and you learn to grow other crops where opportunities exist. Rice, soybeans, corn, even sorghum. Grow crops that can be directly exported unprocessed and priced with transparency off global futures markets.
With sugar prices in the doldrums and growers blessed with choice as to crops they can grow in some of Australia's most precious agricultural soils, the sugar single desk is history. Cross subsidisation leads to misery for all in the end. Long live Austrian economics. It is the only hope to avoid serfdom back in the gulags. Farmers haven't noticed they are few in number and a disassociated urban majority will vote their 'super' profits back into land nationalisation in a heartbeat, just as in mining. Sadly the most vocal on these threads fail to see the future which is fast approaching.
The only hope for this nation is a return to the management of the economy based on AUSTRIAN economics. Big government will lead us all back into the goolags where misery is shared equally.
Comeon Pete. When all the next generation aspire to engage in in agriculture is politics you know you have a serious problem. The vast majority of profitable farmers are focussing on what they need to do to be more productive with less rainfall and rising costs seemingly a safe assumption to make, namely marketing grain. That is opposed to marketing themselves on socialist, hollow populist agendas and drawing a wage out of a gravvy train we are all taxed to fund.
Jock are you advocating for Scottish Australia or Australia Australia?
The anti meat brigade is also well funded. Imagine receiving a wage to troll around the blogs of agricultural websites? That is what you are up against. But the fact still remains meat is delicious and cholesterol ain't bad for you. 60% of it is manufactured by your own body. Veganism is actually a modern day anomaly made possible by pills and dietary supplements. No thanks, not for me ...
Keep on promoting the healthy red stuff and consumers will keep lining up for it. Dispell the negative health effects which have been manufactured by the anti meat brigade. The welfare angle is losing traction because over time people become desensitised. It has been a brilliant campaign but in the end meat is still delicious and healthy. Look at the world's carnivores, they ain't dieing from heart attacks!
100% agree. Nobody owes a farmers anything. We live a pretty good life and are afforded many tax management options not available to other Australians eg FMDs, diesel rebate etc. When the inevitable food price boom arrives (rampant food inflation), urbanites will begin to question why we are afforded these deductions when they are paying through the nose for food.
If it is tough, get out. There is life beyond the farm!
A matter of opinion
Andrew you flippantly state CBH benefits shareholders through 'its mechanism of returns to shareholders via cheaper fees.'
Many shareholders would argue the existance of record CBH profits is proof 'cheaper fees' are still extremely expensive by global export standards. Increasingly shareholders are becoming concerned their fees are being used to speculate in infrastructure plays outside of WA and non core to the job of storage and handling in WA, whilst essential WA infrastructure crumbles (eg rail).
Deregulate and corporatise and then you rely on the law to ensure companies abide by rules that have delivered the mining sector their boom.
Burrs under my saddle
Hey Pete. Don't give up your day job. Politics is usually for those who have failed out here in the real world anyway.
Just like there are Liberal and Labor voters, there are healthily profitable, free market embracing farmers and there are at best, barely profitable, agrarian socialist farmers (who are the minority and being rationalised to the coast). It is that minority of farmers that have the loudest voice and in their cries for financial help, leave the rest of the industry vulnerable to socialist politics. i caqn just see it when food prices one day do hit the roof, who will consumers want a pound of flesh back from? Hard working, risk taking, free market embracing, protifable farmers.
Australia is headed for a housing price bust and banking crisis and in its wake the rise and rise of socialist undercurrents that will grow into a tidal wave. Those sectors of the economy still making a profit (eg farming) will be easy targets for politicians elected by an increasingly socialist underclass to target agricultural 'super-profits'. Farmers are likely to face pressure to have their land nationalised particularly if they keep putting their hands out for assistance.
If you act like socialists, don't be surprised if the taxpayers act in the same manner.
Got any burrs in your saddle today Pete?
The goal has to be to deal with current bad debt, not creating more of it. Adding to it just kicks the can down the road and ensures the likely mother of all depressions will be created and it will be global. Of course this is where the nanny state can enlarge herself as socialism rears its ugly head world over. The free market ain't perfect, but this is where the alternative of 'regulation' will end. In the goolags my firend, in the goolags.
I don't have much faith in any side of politics. All I know is less government is better than more of it. The biggest distortion in currency markets is the peg of the yuan to the dollar ... oh, besides the fact central banks can print money out of thin air and push any currency anywhere in the world any direction they like. The Reserve Bank provides the finishing touches with 'monetary policy'.
Looks like it is me and you Pete. Doesn't seem to be an issue you could stir up an agrarian socialist storm. Better to stick to single desks and dreams of yester year if you want a life in agripolitics. keep it real simple fella!
A typical AG Soc is our old Pete. Always expect the taxpayer to cough up. Deregulate and get rid of red tape and watch rural Australia blossum.
If you look back in recent history, the highest profit years have always been achieved in the years with the highest costs. Just as profits have always soared when the dollar is strong as it generally indicates commodity prices are strong. A strong Aussie dollar is a good thing as it keeps a reign in on costs and Australia is already an expensive place to run business thanks to government red tape and bureacracy gone mad.
Basis is real demand and of course growers will be keen sellers if the basis brings the overall price up to attractive levels. But thats the point, manipulation is taking base prices down in Chicago, whilst real demand bids in physical markets. Same thing happens in gold and silver markets. Futures markets are where wars are won these days, hence the importance of being in control of the prining presses. You can manufacture deflation when inflationary pressures should be in control. So long as there is faith in paper this will always be the case.
Short attack currently underway on grains and softs. Can't manipulate the basis though and that is why basis behaviour is 'uncharacteristic' for this time of the year. Basis (premium above US futures price) will continue to make up an increasing part of grain returns in the future.
'Better prices' will come when buyers go to collect shorts with no physical behind them.
On the BRICs, the old saying holds true. 'Its not until the tide goes out that you see who is naked.' Australia is in this basket as well.
It is a tried and tested model for transferring wealth from the 'middle class' to the elite. Blow bubbles and pop 'em. Another stockmarket bubble in the making, plus BRIC, plus housing, etc etc
There is nowhere you can hide but you can make sure you maximise your income at every post.
The problem for farmers are globalists and their central banker henchmen who have the power to mobilise printed money to the short side of futures markets and effectively manufacture deflation. So long as there is faith in paper money, this problem will exist. Just as gold prices are suppressed, so too are food commodity prices. No votes in food inflation and wealthy farmers.
Unfortunately PAYG, the Ag Socs do not see their affliction as dangerous to their wealth and that of their peers. For those of us with open eyes, we see the greatest risk to industry remaining profitable as bigger government and constraints on free market enterprise. Austrian economic principles are the only way to build sustainable industry. Ignore the rhetoric of the sycophants for pretty soon they will realise there is no warmth in their gulags and the free market wasn't such a bad place after all.
Luckily for the sugar producers they have a bright future ahead of them IF they move to diversify their financial dependence away from a single commodity. Corn, sorghum, rice and soybeans are all viable crops to consider specialising into in the future and they are more easily priced on international fundamentals and being so close to port the opportunities to manage supply chain costs are immense. Ditch the sugar and learn the craft of growing grain
Out of the shadow
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You are a gonnas Vern. The troops are getting restless and see the 2017 CBH choke coming as soon as November.
All they have done is manufactured a rebate out of consolidated taxings on grain receivals. There'll be nothing next year and millions have been spent on no future sites to take in grain that won't be there now. The only path forward is investment in super sites and rationalisation of costly sites (unreliable tonnes). Wonder how much dough has been wasted on expensive oats with early contracts? Not to mention buying and building assets whose value have been inflated by that high oats price at the time.
I couldn't think of anything more painful or fruitless than sitting on a board that does not embrace the principles of Austrian economics. Politics is no place for a multibillion dollar company facing real free market economic threats. At the moment, politics is thick in this organization.
Nitrogen and fungicide the inputs that as good as have run out and that is without any powdery in wheat emerging.
The core business is all that counts and at the moment, CBH is far from ready for the record crop shareholders are going to deliver them. We have seen money wasted in other catchments (Newcastle Terminal), competing in fertilizer whilst a multinational (LD) is loss leading, oats processors NOT in WA, receival fee rebates for oats encouraging a likely supply glut and big bill for wheat growers this year, the list goes on. Core business is all that counts when the threat of competition lurks. We have a crazy situation where a volume business delivered more volume will see S/H costs rise again
Ummm ... the Pacific North West is the US Realist, and the office would find it hard operating as a failure and a success?
So what happened to the office in the Pacific North West of the US, and the one in Russia?? Empire building should not be confused with visions of grandeur.
All the CBH directors had to do was allow growers to have their say instead of forcing us all to take their word on what is in our best interests. Leaves a sour taste in the mouth when these agrarian socialists think they can take this company head to head with the wave of competition their high costs are inviting into the State. All growers need focus on is are their costs rising or coming down? If they're rising, the board is failing.
Just another example of a farmer who sees more profits in socialist politics. Lets eliminate the niches they are created in and the Wheatbelt will be a better place. The only place left to nurture these types is on the CBH board.
AGC director Brad Jones has identified this as a crucial market opportunity for CBH with feedlot demand in Asia operating 24/7 7 days a week. This helps avoid the usual CBH shipping and logistics bottleneck in trying to export a wheat crop in the first 6 months of the year.
A big old debt bomb globally. The farm sector will not be immune.
You blokes still farming? I would have thought the deregulated market would have ruined you by now.
It became a billion dollar plus company by charging too much for storage and handling. And yes that is usually what farmer directors are good at doing, spending other peoples money rather than driving efficiencies to lower costs.
Kanzi as the resident sheep it does not surprise you are comfortable having a bunch of agripolitical hacks making decisions for you. Personally I'd prefer proffessionals running the show. In any case, it is obvious the current CBH board are not interested in their own due diligence, but are more worried of the due diligence AGC will run over their books. There are significant losses currently being swept under the carpet and buried in a reporting process Christopher Skase would be envious of. Nothing more democratic than a vote particularly when there CBH is spending madly to avoid it.
Let me get this straight. A report to tell us that us we should 'continue to allow market forces to dictate the production of noodle wheat.' Damn straight and in case the report writers haven't noticed, there has been at least 3 new varieties released which growers are swinging to because of enhanced yield and disease characteristics. Not to mention noodle premiums are around $20/t ahead of bread wheats, What a waste of someones resources! Probably the good ol wheat grower.
No excuse to sit on the fence when SWAPs products exist. Canola SWAPs especially are going to deliver some record incomes with the recent and continuing collapse.
Short term pain is higher input prices compensated by higher grain prices. Probably higher interest rates. In the end though, anybody that thinks subsidizing the Greeks' way of live is good for their own country is deluded. Just look at how Iceland has pulled through their mess! Pain then gain.
Don't mistake individual farmer failure as anything related to market function Munro. For every whiner, there are ten farmers making good coin at the moment. The only whine they have is there are not enough failed socialist properties on the market.
Have to say ... it is looking scary out there! Massive potential. It will be hard to come back from this year to 'normal'.
Market crashes are normal parts of any business cycle Jock. You build fat for these days because that is where the greatest opportunities lie. Have money when others don't. Fortunately for WA and SA producers the removal of single desk has allowed unprecedented equity rebuilds over the last 5 years.
Yawn! You get wifi with that tin foil hat on wtf?
It does have an archaic structure and that is why the competition will shortly start building up country mega sites in Kwinana to deliver a death blow to the coop. The truth is CBH is charging far too much to handle grain because of the large number of small sites and this apparent need to invest in other opportunities. The only opportunity WA farmers should be interested in is the neighbours farm.
The reality is there isn't a mass die off of farmers occurring. You know the guys that actually handle this stuff? Safe as houses. It's not like we have much ability to choose a world without glyphosate with 7 billion mouths to keep from turning into middle class roasting barbarians.
All the usual xenophobes having their 2 bobs worth. There is no need to leave taxable income on the table when there are soil pHs to rectify, machinery to upgrade, non wetting soils to fix, nutrient levels to replenish, weeds seed banks to decimate, the list goes on. Besides the tax only goes to fund Australia's welfare class, which many posters on here would gladly join as avid socialists. Avoiding tax is not a Qatary invention. It's is entirely Australian
So you have to have high charges to have high wheat prices Munro? You are a very confused man. Of course it doesn't really matter what Cargill does in your case because they have you blacklisted as a muckraker and refuse to do business with you.
The only way to address climate change if it is man made is to reduce the men man! This ain't about the planet it is about lining the pockets of the elite, destroying the wealth of the middle class and ushering in of socialist rule.
Once the shares are in the hands of growers and the realisation of this company's potential is realised, the last people selling shares will be farmers. I'll be betting many farmers actually increase their holdings in CBH once listed because this is the once in a lifetime 2nd Wesfarmers, a company many of the original farmers still hold. Graincorp on the other hand was sold out by short term profiteers like Munro and Mark2, now lamenting their most unwise business decision. Eggs are best eaten cooked boys.
Ian fixed an inequitable system. Now NSW farmers have had to learn to make the economics of growing wheat work without the distortion of stealing top up wheat payments from WA and SA grain growers. I can see why the NSW socialists and other unemployed ex-employees are so vocal.
It matters little who is in power these days. The mix always involves a minority socialist party. And this march toward full blown socialism rhymes in every developed democracy around the world. Oh and of course worry over climate chaos and men with frizzy black beards. These turkey's no longer work for the people. It is their job to deliver your freedom to debt collectors and terror fighters. Our forebears would be disgraced.
Bob the country is already bankrupt just like the rest of the Western World. We kind of gave up our ability to spend money we don't have just after the GFC blew through. When there are no jobs and pensions have been cribbed to barely cover WeetBix, only then will this something for nothing generation realise how they have dealt their futures to the goolags.
Our 6 year average is $310/t which is a function of cash and SWAPs positions over that time. Noodle wheat has been very kind to WA growers since the Single Desk nightmare ended.
So overall the view is good from where I sit but it could be even better. There are many farmers with much better performances and they are looking even better.
Laziness and ignorance are no excuse for underperformance.
You would finish up with more if there was competition for storage and handling as growers in the Bunbury Catchment are discovering. If you can't make money with $300 wheat you might as well give your farm back to the bank right now. Consolidated farmers can be profitable at much lower prices. Unbridled opportunities exist if we could only get competition into all aspects of the supply chain. Don't get me started on levies!!!!!!
Logic you are right on the money. It is amazing how much more grain is produced in Wa when wheat is $300 a tonne and canola $600. Prices lower than this and pastures return, more fallow is found and fertiliser programs are tempered, liming/gypsum programs slashed, more weeds tolerated in crops etc etc. The problem is this tendency for grain prices to always return to decile 2-3. We will always have this problem while central planners can move printed money to the short side of futures markets.
What a great story! Not enough young ones looking at the plethora of opportunities available in agriculture. Congratulations Madelaine. Keep up the great work and more importantly you will provide inspiration to lots of other young country kids who face the temptation to drift to the city.
If the seed companies moved away from the daylight robbery upfront model and towards an EPR based fee recovery system, few would consider spending so much money of equipment to chase precision on rates. We'd all be sowing at 3kg/ha again.
Whne you go fishing you chase big fish not little ones with the limited bait you have. Similarly in farming there are so many places you can spend your money to improve the bottom line. Most are focussing on getting a bit of scale in moderation, more lime, more fertilizer, new herbicide chemistries etc. When wheat stays at $350 for more than a couple of years in 10 there might be some incentive to chase the smaller gains on offer. But thats just my 2 bobs worth
The on farm storage boys know there is a boom beginning for them and that will be for those farmers close to the Bunge port. And CBH has no idea just how this will ends apart from them having to rely on rain in the Eastern Wheatbelt for break-even tonnage. It doesn't have to be that way but decisions being made today are cementing CBH's future and it ain't a very bright one.
Imagine if we only had one political party in Canberra? Actually they already tried that over in rusky land with a man called Stalin. Be careful what you wish for! There are ignorant and informed farmers. Better industry is not run by ignorance or socialists
When Australian family farmers stop selling their farms?
Bushie is right. The agrarian socialist cares little for anyone else except himself. Worse still he demands the hard work of others contribute to his own financial well being, no matter what the cost. You may need to google goolag argis where everyone is equal in the misery they feel.