THE sheep processing industry could become unsustainable in WA if the State’s flock decreases a further one million head, according to industry research.
The WA flock is at risk of decreasing below its lowest level of 13.8 million head if the live export trade is phased out and demand from Eastern States restockers after the drought passes.
According to Live Export Reference Group producer representative Murray Hall, Brookton, when Eastern States sheep producers begin restocking following the drought, there’s a high probability that they will be looking west for quality ewes to boost their numbers.
“If we lose another million ewes out of the State flock it puts processors at risk in WA,” Mr Hall said at the WAFarmers Field Day and Forum in Kellerberrin last week .
He said the advisory group, which came together to provide government and industry with modelling on what the WA sheep flock would look like, with or without live export in coming years, was organised to provide stakeholders – including the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD), Agriculture Minister Alannah MacTiernan and producers – with information to make informed decisions.
The group is chaired by DPIRD’s Bruce Mullan and includes producer representatives Mr Hall, John Wallace, Esperance, Steven Bolt, Corrigin, and sheep industry representatives Bindi Murray of Sheep Producers Australia, meat industry consultant Peter Trefort and Elders livestock agent Dean Hubbard.
Executive support has been provided by DPIRD sheep industry development officer Mandy Curnow.
The group has met four times to date.
Mr Hall said WA’s flock required growth if it was going to remain at sustainable levels and encourage the entry of other processors into the local market.
He said under the modelling carried out so far, which included transfers of breeding stock to the Eastern States, there was a risk to WA’s ewe flock numbers.
More details are expected to come to light as more meetings are held and modelling data is evaluated.
In 2010/11 almost 1.3 million head were moved interstate due to seasonal conditions, according to DPIRD figures.
In 2016/17 314,000 head – mainly adult sheep (67 per cent) – were transferred interstate.
It is anticipated that Eastern States producers could be after at least the numbers of 2016/17, perhaps more.
WAFarmers has previously warned that sheep producers would back away from the industry if the live export trade ceased – possibly reducing the flock to as low as eight million head – in spite of high wool prices.
They would do that through cutting back lambing numbers and/or reducing their ewe numbers.
The expected results of a live export phase out would see reduced competition in the local market, with prices for livestock dropping by as much as $30 per head as was seen when there was a temporary halt to the trade last year when exporters withdrew from the market.
That would be due to importers looking elsewhere for reliable food sources.
The market has since rebounded after Rural Export and Trading WA entered the picture to supply the Persian Gulf – filling the void left by Emanuel Exports after it had its licence cancelled.
The reduced flock numbers would put immense pressure on WA processors which need a consistent supply of specific quality sheep at the right weights to meet their customers requirements.
It could make processing in WA harder if not unviable.
Five processors across Australia, including Goodchilds Meats, have already either cut back on staffing numbers and shifts, changed focus or closed due to the pressures on the industry with the high operating costs of water and power.
WAMMCO chief executive officer Coll MacRury said WA had seen a big kill of mutton recently and it was hard to know exactly where the flock numbers were at.
“My feeling is we will be a little down next spring, while the Eastern States will be buying out of WA if short of stock,” Mr MacRury said.
“We are still killing reasonably good numbers.
“There was a lot of sheep killed in WA this year.”
Mr MacRury said WAMMCO would “probably suffer” but not to the degree that others do, who relied more on sourcing sheep stocks from saleyards.
WAMMCO has 1500 members who supply 90pc of what it needs to fill orders, so its saleyard purchases are not as extensive as other processors.
This year the live sheep trade will see a self-imposed moratorium on exports from June to August (during the northern hemisphere summer), which could be extended depending on Heat Stress Risk Assessment (HSRA) changes.
As part of the live export panel at the forum, Wellard Feeds general manager Dr David Jarvie said there was work being done on the HSRA model in which a “marker” that could accurately measure animal welfare was being developed.
“We are working on it – it is complicated,” Dr Jarvie said.
“We are looking at doing further research.”
Dr Jarvie said there was concerns that the same markers developed for the live export trade could be used on farm, which would have implications for all livestock producers.
“We need to make sure that with whatever changes are brought in the industry is viable,” he said.
“Address the animal welfare issues but whatever we do, make it sustainable.”
WAFarmers livestock committee chair David Slade said the organisation had been working on the live export issue “night and day” and was “doing all it can on this issue”.
He encouraged producers to support the lobby group as they have another delegation heading to Canberra to share its message with all who will listen.
