PROVIDING an interesting and topical presentation at last week’s GRDC Tambellup Farm Business Updates was international economist, professor Neville Norman.
Professor Norman was called in as a last-minute replacement to another economist Saul Eslake, who couldn’t make the trip west.
And he provided a more than adequate substitute, having done a large amount of work in the space of trade wars, Trump politics and the Banking Royal Commission, which were the topics that Mr Eslake was to present on.
Professor Norman said the agricultural industry was right to talk about Trump’s tariffs, as there would be a knock-on impact from them to Australian agriculture.
He cited the China barley anti-dumping action as an example of this.
“We would not have had the trade wars and all that has gone with it, without the election of Trump and him deciding to do this,” professor Norman said.
“The recent reaction of other countries including agricultural products in these trade wars and anti-dumping threats and so on is all, in my opinion, triggered by this.
“This is something you should be talking about.
“Retaliation from countries impacted makes this much bigger and there is not a lot of good news out there.
“The economic effects are that there has been such a sapping of purchasing power in the potential national incomes of the buyers (importers), and WA has a very big export orientation of your products, so this has been damaged.
“The good news is that below income elasticity of demand means for a one per cent reduction in the incomes of the countries that buy your grain, you get a very, very small reduction compared to other products because it is basically a staple, these countries have to have it.
“While the Trump tariffs are not to be trivialised, I wouldn’t lose a lot of sleep over it but it is having an unresolved negative impact that you need to keep monitoring.”
- Find out what else professor Norman had to say and get the full rundown on the conference by getting this Thursday's Farm Weekly.