NATIONAL grain production is set to grow at year on year levels not seen for nearly 40 years but amazingly the rebound may be even greater in New South Wales.
After a wheat crop of just 1.7 million tonnes last year according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) private forecasters are predicting up to 12m tonnes of wheat alone this year.
"Our last estimate was 11.5m tonnes and there is still plenty of room for upside, still plenty of areas that will benefit from the forecast rain later in the week," said Nick Crundall, Market Check head of strategy.
"It has been that perfect storm, you had people with stored moisture, the wheat price was around $350 a tonne at sowing time and it was difficult to get hold of livestock," Mr Crundall said.
"This has meant an extra half a million hectares compared to even the record 2016-17 season and then to have the season pan out so favourably, it leads to that assumption that it is going to be a really big year.
"The only caveat is losing hectares to excessive harvest rain and forecasts like this week, where there is unwelcome rain in the north, shows this is a risk, although it is likely to mean downgrading, rather than crop loss unless there is really substantial rain."
Roy Hamilton, Rand, in the northern Riverina, is one farmer who has experienced a big turnaround.
"We're looking forward to harvest this year, there is really good potential there after a run of poorer years, even 2016 which was so good elsewhere was a problem because of the floods so we are keen to get something back.
"You only get a couple of these years every generation, that chance to really put something back into the business."
He said the season had run in virtually textbook fashion.
"We've actually only had two of the seven months of the growing season with above average rainfall," Mr Hamilton said.
"This is actually a good thing for our area as in the really wet years we can lose hectares to excess water, and at seeding things were certainly fairly wet but it dried off through winter, which is unusual."
Since then, he said there had been good spring rain, a lack of September frosts, often a problem in the district and then a cool finish through October.
"We've barely had a day over 30 which is really unusual and that allows for that long, cool finish which really helps all the crops."
He said using the French and Schultz yield estimate model, wheat yields around Rand were on track for around 4.5t/ha, well above the district average.
"Also, from a disease point of view, we've been really lucky, you could see disease flaring up in years with a lot less rainfall than this."
Mr Hamilton said the good year, combined with the likely high prices, would not be enough to balance the drought years but it would help.
"It gives you a bit more confidence in the resilience of the business and if we can get a couple more good years it will really give us a boost."