AUSTRALIA'S sheep flock is undergoing a significant rebuild and is predicted to grow by 6.3 per cent, after falling to its lowest level on record last year.
That is according to Meat and Livestock Australia's (MLA) sheep industry projections half-year update, released this month.
According to the report, favourable seasonal conditions in the first half of this year coupled with a positive outlook have driven the faster national flock rebuild.
The flock dropped to 64 million head last year, off the back of years of drought and is estimated to reach 68.1m head in the rebuild.
This is an upwards revision of 700,000 sheep on MLA's February release.
MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said the improved conditions were likely to affect producer intentions across WA.
"It is likely that the wet autumn and good outlook for winter will cease any flock liquidation in the State," Mr Bignell said.
"This will stop the flow of sheep to the east, which lead to 2m head being trucked across the Nullarbor last year.
"The favourable conditions in WA will encourage producers to rebuild their flocks.
"A recent MLA benchmarking report found that mixed sheep and cropping farms in WA are the most profitable in the world, reinforcing the rebuild mentality in the State."
The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast average rainfall in WA between June and September, following a favourable autumn period due to cyclone Seroja and the ensuing rainfall.
Wet weather, teamed with high canola prices, could lead to an increase in the area cropped at the expense of sheep production, according to climate assumptions in the MLA report.
The report said if a strong season was not to eventuate in WA, producer confidence may soften and yardings could increase.
Shorter gestation length of sheep and the ability to run off stock at younger ages and lighter weights means the flock rebuild is happening faster than the cattle herd rebuild.
The trend in producers joining an increasing number of ewe lambs is contribution to the fast rebuild, as more lambs were being produced over shorter periods.
Mr Bignell said the rebuild speed was also a result of lower than previously expected sheep and lamb slaughter this year.
He said lower slaughter numbers for sheep and lamb, which MLA were forecasting to be 6.1m head and 20.3m head respectively, were driven by continued good weather in key sheep producing regions.
"These strong seasonal conditions are encouraging producers to retain more ewes and ewe lambs for breeding purposes.
"Despite being revised down from the February projections, lamb slaughter is still expected to be above levels from last year when 20m head were slaughtered.
"Last year, lamb processing capacity in Victoria was affected by COVID-19 social distancing measures in the latter half of the year.
"Therefore, it is expected that lamb slaughter could accelerate in the second half of 2021 and exceed 2020 levels."
Mr Bignell said average national lamb carcase weights would continue to be underpinned by improved seasonal conditions across key sheep regions.
He said relatively high prices in the first quarter of this year had provided producers with an incentive to add kilograms to animals.
"Better conditioned lambs will see average national lamb carcase weights for 2021 lift marginally to 24.4kg, up 0.4kg/head on 2020 levels.
"MLA has not predicted significantly increased weights in 2021, given 2020 was also a year with abundant feed that assisted good lamb growth.
"Continued feed availability is underpinning average sheep carcase weights which are expected to remain in line with 2020 weights at 25.8kg/head.
"Greater investments into sheep lot and containment feeding during the 2018-19 drought supported carcase weights in periods of pasture shortfalls."
This year, saleyard prices are expected to remain high, though slightly lower than the records set in 2019-2020, indicative of a flock rebuild that is maturing.
As the predictions suggest, the sheep flock is in good shape to rebuild and grow.