Slowing down: The reason fewer city dwellers are moving to the country

The number of people moving from the capitals to regional areas fell by 10 per cent during the December 2021 quarter according to the latest release of the Regional Movers Index - a collaboration between the Regional Australia Institute and the Commonwealth Bank, which uses banking customer address changes to track relocations.

A location needed to have at least 100 address changes to make the list.

RAI chief economist Dr Kim Houghton said that the drop in outbound migration from big cities was largely due to seasonal factors but did mark a larger drop than witnessed in the December 2020 quarter.

The figures were even more stark in the major regional areas that have been responsible for the lion's share of sea and tree changers in the past two years, with migration to those areas down between 31pc (in Wollongong and the Sunshine Coast) and 38pc (in Geelong) when compared to the September quarter.

"Places like the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Wollongong and Geelong, that's where the largest numbers have gone to [in the past two years]. The pattern there has been pretty stable over the two years ... [but] all of these places have seen a significant drop in this last December quarter," Mr Houghton said.

He cautioned that the changes were "not a sign yet that this trend [of relocating to the regions] is turning around, but admitted that it appeared some of the "gloss of those destinations has come off".

"Initially [during the pandemic] we saw a lot of movement into the most popular, high-amenity places. We're thinking Surf Coast down in Victoria or Byron in NSW or Fraser Coast in Queensland [as well]. A lot of those place the growth rates have slowed, they are still getting more people coming in but the higher growth rates are in more inland areas," Mr Houghton said.

Accelerating price growth in these popular lifestyle regions - driven by a combination of regional residents remaining in place, new residents moving in and low interest rates - may be one of the reasons for the slowdown in outbound growth, according to Mr Houghton.

"People not leaving the regions [during the COVID-19 pandemic] meant that they weren't leaving their houses, putting their houses up for sale or up for rent," Mr Houghton said.

"You couple that with this bit of an increase in people looking for a regional shift and suddenly you get this real pinch point in regional housing. That coincided with these very low interest rates which made people feel like they could afford to pay a little bit more than they might have done a few weeks or a few months before."

Prices across regional Australia climbed by more than 25.9pc in 2021, according to CoreLogic, well up on the 21pc recorded in the combined capital cities.

Jobs, cost of living help drive Queensland, South Australia migration

The five fastest-growing locations for inbound migration in the 12 months ending December 2021 were all located in South Australia or Queensland, according to the index, with Port Augusta in South Australia topping the list at 54pc.

Cheaper cost of living and job prospects were likely driving the trend, Mr Houghton said, with the labour force having failed to keep up with the number of job vacancies in these areas.

"[It's about] job prospects and affordability for those places as well. They are places that have seen some kind of local economic development, some kind of investment and it looks like people are following those opportunities and getting into those regions before there is too much of an increase in cost of living," he said.

CBA's executive general manager of regional and agribusiness, Paul Fowler, said the bank was optimistic about regional Australia's future prospects despite the dip in the December quarter.

"Whilst the December quarter shows a slight slowing in the pace of migration toward our regions we're incredibly optimistic around the opportunity for regional Australia and the outlook, [and that is] underpinned by a few factors," Mr Fowler said.

Those factors included low unemployment rates, high job vacancy rates, a strong tourism markets with future growth expected, and strong agricultural conditions including strong commodity prices.

He said that the Index showed quarterly migration from capital cities to regional areas over the past two years is averaging 15 per cent higher than what is was in the two years pre-COVID 19.

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