At a time when key participants are anxious Australia's live export sheep trade could be staring down the barrel of a dying industry, one man says there is no way the Middle East market is walking away from the most western state of Australia.
WA producer and Livestock Collective director Stephen Bolt said although the trade is facing challenges, live export is key to the preservation of the state's entire sheep industry.
"There is no doubt there is still huge demand from the Middle East region," Mr Bolt said.
"But they are certainly being challenged with the prices they have got to pay to be successful in getting sheep out of WA.
"At the moment they have been accessing sheep from other parts of the world to fill their needs, but there is no way that the Middle East market is walking away from WA."
Department of Agriculture, Water and Environment (DAWE) trade statistics reveal live sheep exports have begun 2022 stronger year-on-year, but numbers are still well below pre Covid-19 pandemic levels.
Yet for the first two months of the season exports to Kuwait accounted for 70.2 per cent of the flows to date.
In fact, live export trade volumes since the start of 2022 to Kuwait are running 83pc above the five-year average pattern for the first two months of the year.
Since 2018 Kuwaiti demand for Australian sheep has been on a steady growth trajectory, in terms of market share of the total trade, lifting from 22pc in 2018 to 41.6pc in 2020.
And by 2021 flows to Kuwait from Australia were sitting at 60.4pc.
Mr Bolt said long-term, because of the top facilities, the quality of sheep, the lack of disease risk and a well organised supply chain, the Middle East's preference will continue to be sheep from WA.
But it was only a decade ago that the live sheep export industry was both an east and west coast affair.
In 2011 around 30pc of the live sheep export volumes exited the country from ports outside of WA.
However, since 2018 the trade has predominately been a WA led industry, with 98pc of the annual live export turnoff of sheep leaving from the west.
The live export sales option available to WA producers was a crucial element in effective management of their livestock numbers, particularly during challenging seasons.
But since the introduction of the Middle East and North Africa summer moratorium to the trade in 2018, the volumes being turned off the live export sector in WA have shrunk to just 12pc of the total annual turnoff.
Last year 575,000 sheep were sent offshore, its lowest number since 1989, according to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).
While the industry has been impacted by global demand factors, including the moratorium and the Covid-19 pandemic, it's also a reflection of the domestic flock supply.
Thomas Elder Market analyst Matt Dalgleish said pre-moratorium there was over one million head leaving Australian shores.
"In the last year-and-a-half about two million sheep went across from WA to the east, in particular to NSW," Mr Dalgleish said.
"Some of those numbers would have historically been going to live-ex and price wise, that supported the WA market.
"But from a WA producer's perspective, you can't rely on the east taking all the volumes that the live export volumes used to take.
"And with volumes dwindling away for live-ex, how long it is sustainable as a sector in WA?"
Mr Bolt said there is no doubt the ewe base in WA has reduced dramatically, but a number of pressures are influencing those numbers.
"Live-ex has always been there when we have the capacity to turn off big numbers of wethers, particularly when the season is challenging for feed or a late break," Mr Bolt said.
"But our biggest challenge here is the competition for land use. We have seen a huge swing into cropping in some of those big sheep areas.
"More than anything though, we had a couple of poor feed seasons here, so the reduction in numbers came from a lot of ewes heading to the east, which significantly reduced the number of breeding ewes in WA."
He said other than the fight for land and a run of less than favourable seasons, Australia's dwindling number of shearers is also a major threat within the industry.
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And unless the industry can address those issues and stabilise numbers, the WA breeding flock will continue to decline, he said.
"It's difficult to get hard numbers of how many ewes are in the state, but I would suspect that over the last three or four years we have dropped 25pc of our ewe base off in WA," he said.
"Data is saying about six million ewes, but I suspect it is lower than that.
"The live-ex numbers and the reduction in the amount of sheep available to travel out through live export are a reflection of the shrinking breeding ewe numbers."
Will a reduced moratorium period save the industry?
If the current three-month moratorium window remains, industry heads are concerned there is a risk that the sector will continue to dwindle away in the west, as it has done in the eastern states.
Mr Dalgleish believes the sector needs a one-month moratorium to survive.
"If the three-month moratorium window for the live sheep trade continues, the sector will starve until there is nothing left," Mr Dalgleish said.
"Anything beyond a one-month moratorium then you have supply chain issues, but also problems like not being able to sustain shearing teams in WA.
"There are transport operators that were almost exclusively transporting live-ex, they had to shift and pivot their business to include doing traditional livestock transport, but in WA that is somewhat limited."
But Mr Bolt dismissed claims that the trade will disappear if the three-month moratorium continues.
He said since the moratorium was put in place the industry has demonstrated that it can successfully transport sheep safely across to the Middle East market.
"The reduction in stocking density has seen significant increases in welfare outcomes and the industry supports those changes that have been made," he said.
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He said the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment (DAWE) had indicated the three-month moratorium period is appropriate, but admits there needs to be more work done in the area.
One idea is the opportunity to reduce the time by at least two-weeks, particularly at the front-end.
"When waiting on that break of season, the last vessel leaving at the end of May becomes pretty challenging for producers to make decisions around holding or selling sheep," Mr Bolt said
"If we get a late break in the season it doesn't give us the ability to offload wethers.
"In the event of that happening it leads to more on-farm welfare issues where producers end up carrying extra stock which impacts on the ewes and lambs that are already on-farm."
The true value of live-ex
The cultural demand from Middle Eastern countries means they will always be looking to access live sheep regardless of where they come from throughout the world.
"The live trade has been there for a long time and it will continue to be there," Mr Bolt said.
"Australia has and will continue to set that world standard for live export transport.
"I think it is hugely important that we continue to be in that space as world leaders as time goes on."
NSW sheep producer and Australian Wool Growers Association (AWGA) director Charles 'Chick' Olsson said trade is the key to sharing sharing ideas and making change to behaviour patterns.
He said for the past 20 years many Australian vets, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) professionals, stockmen and stock women have travelled with Australian sheep and cattle to export destinations.
"It has been a quiet approach and a sensible approach aimed at assisting other countries with new idea on animal welfare practices," Mr Olsson said.
"Australia is the only country doing this. Who else will do this unless it is us and how can the world ever improve its welfare practices unless there is an avenue to do so?"
He said as appalling as some of the footage has been in the past, the overall benefit of live export has been immense to all economies involved.
"Live-ex is far more than just an economic decision, it is in fact an effective way to improve humanities role in treating our livestock better and sharing genuine ideas for a better world," he said.
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