Farm Weekly

Australian 2022 federal election predictions

Australian 2022 federal election predictions

This is a commercial partnership with Ladbrokes.

Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese are gearing up for the last sprint to the election finish line on May 21, when Australia will determine who forms government.

Labor is on the verge of victory, but the Liberals have not given up, believing that in the remaining two weeks, undecided voters would stay with the 'devil' they know.

While national surveys show Labor comfortably ahead of the Coalition and on track for a win, both sides indicate the battle might still be tight, with each major party's low primary support making the outcome difficult to predict.

Minor party choices in critical seats may also be important, with Jacqui Lambie, Pauline Hanson, and Clive Palmer all possible kingmakers.

Scarred by wild forecasts of triumph in the 2019 election, Labor is now wary, despite the fact that most people still believe a Labor administration - majority or minority - is the most likely outcome.

The electorate is unpredictable, and there are unknowns that might produce unexpected outcomes - for example, could the United Australia vote trigger a shock in previously uncontested seats? In the case of a hung parliament, who would "teal" independents support?

Labor now owns 69 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, therefore a net gain of seven seats is required to create a majority government, but only five to be certain of minority rule.

The Coalition has 75 seats and will need to make up any losses elsewhere.

Here's a look at the road to success.

Western Australia

Labor hopes to take at least two seats, with Swan and Pearce the most likely winners. If the swing is on, Hasluck (5.9 percent) may be in play, notwithstanding the popularity of the local MP, Ken Wyatt.

Swan (3.2 percent) is owned by the departing Steve Irons, while Pearce (5.2 percent) is held by the departing Christian Porter.

The cost of living is a major worry in both of these seats, notably in Pearce in Perth's far northern suburbs, where rising gas costs, inflation, and interest rate rises will be felt.

Winning both seats is critical for Labor to attain its seven-seat majority government aim.

Celia Hammond, the Liberal MP for Curtin, is also facing a challenge from independent Kate Chaney, which is scaring the party in the west.

South Australia

In South Australia, Labor is quite optimistic about winning the marginal seat of Boothby, which is currently held by the Liberals but will be vacated by incumbent MP Nicolle Flint.

It is controlled by a 1.4 percent edge, and Labor believes the swing in the state will be enough to guarantee it changes hands.

Victoria

Labor and the Liberal Party both have marginal seats in Victoria that they want to flip.

Labor's best bets are Chisholm, who is being held by Gladys Liu on a 0.5 percent margin, and Higgins, who is being held by Katie Allen on a 3.7 percent margin.

The Coalition, on the other hand, has targeted Labor-held Corangamite, which Libby Coker holds by a 1 percent edge, and Dunkley, which Peta Murphy holds by a 2.7 percent margin.

Corangamite is considered a likely Coalition gain, owing to the election of the mayor of Geelong, Stephanie Asher.

Tasmania

Three Tasmanian seats will be hotly fought, with Labor targeting Liberal-held Bass and Braddon and the Liberals eyeing Lyons as a possible flip.

Bridget Archer in Bass has earned a reputation as a fiercely independent local member, and she is poised to retain her seat despite a 0.4 percent advantage bolstered by Jacqui Lambie's preferences.

Braddon (3.1 percent) is considered as a more possible Labor gain, as the incumbent, Gavin Pearce, is challenged by Burnie city councilor Chris Lynch.

The Liberals are targeting Labor's Brian Mitchell in Lyons, and while its 5.2 percent advantage is inflated after the Liberals disendorsed its candidate during the 2019 campaign, Labor is confident it can maintain the seat.

New South Wales

Labor has more marginal seats in New South Wales than the Liberals, with both parties hopeful of gaining seats.

Reid in western Sydney, which Fiona Martin holds by a 3.2 percent margin, is considered a possible Labor Party win.

Following that, NSW gets more difficult for Labor, although it is also eyeing Robertson (4.2 percent) and views Bennelong (6.9 percent) as a strong possibility, given the retirement of John Alexander and a reaction against the Coalition among the Chinese population.

The Coalition is hopeful that former state MP Andrew Constance can gain Gilmore for the Liberals, but Labor, which now controls the seat by a 2.6 percent advantage, feels there is enough anti-Morrison feeling to keep the seat.

The Coalition is also targeting Labor-held Hunter (3%) and Parramatta (3.5%), which it says are within "striking distance," although these are doubtful victories.

The Liberal Party also intends to reclaim Hughes, which was held by Craig Kelly before he switched to the UAP.

Other Labor marginal seats in the state, such as Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, and Dobell, are not viewed as likely to switch by either party.

The Liberals face losing up to three "teal" seats, including Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, Dave Sharma in Wentworth, and Jason Falinski in Mackellar.

Queensland

After large swings to the Coalition in Queensland in 2019, a margin correction is predicted for this election, but how many seats Labor can recover remains unclear.

Labor is targeting Brisbane, which is held by Liberal Trevor Evans on a 4.9 percent margin, and Ryan, which is held by Julian Simmonds on a 6 percent margin, which it hopes to win with Green preferences.

It also believes it has a chance in Leichhardt, where it is up against popular incumbent Warren Entsch, and Longman, which Terry Young holds by a 3.3 percent advantage.

Labor is also vying for Flynn's seat, but its 8.7 percent margin makes the effort difficult, despite the preselection of popular Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett.

Northern Territory

With the retirement of long-serving Labor MP Warren Snowdon, the Coalition is eyeing the seat of Lingiari in the Northern Territory, which is held by the Labor party by a 5.5 percent majority.

The Nationals have chosen former Alice Springs mayor Damien Ryan to compete for the seat, but Labor believes former Northern Territory deputy chief minister Marion Scrymgour will defeat him.

Ladbrokes federal election odds are subject to change in the lead-up to the election.

What do you think? Who are you think will win the next federal election?

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