Outbreaks of lumpy skin and foot and mouth diseases in Indonesia have not yet been reflected in the numbers of live cattle being shipped out of Australia but exporters say the next few months will be critical.
Whether importers look to continue with orders will hinge on their confidence around managing the health of their livestock, and the ability to vaccinate will play a big role.
A large delegation of Australian exporters and industry leaders have just returned from Indonesia and reported its beef industry was working hard on sourcing foot and mouth disease vaccinations and the Australian Government had committed funding to assist.
Australian Livestock Exporters' Council boss Mark Harvey-Sutton said biosecurity at Indonesian feedlots where Australian cattle were finished was 'second to none'.
"They have the capacity to put in place strong biosecurity measures and it is being taken very seriously," he said.
"Movement of stock between provenances has been limited but that is not preventing cattle getting to processing."
The latest Livelink figures show just under 60,000 head of live cattle left Australian shores in May.
That is an increase from April, however Meat & Livestock Australia analysts said strong numbers out of Townsville during May reflected some delayed shipments due to rain disruptions.
Volumes are historically low, back 34 per cent year-on-year. Numbers to Indonesia, Australia's largest market, are down 25pc but to Vietnam they are back a whopping 86pc.
MLA points to the surplus of cattle and other proteins in the Vietnam market leading to weak demand, exacerbated by reduced purchasing power of wet market shoppers due to rising inflation.
MLA has revised its forecast of live export numbers for 2022 down 33pc and is now estimating just 500,000 head will go.
Much of that has to do with supply.
The northern wet season has been poor but also high cattle prices on offer from Queensland restockers has seen a good number of Northern Territory weaners sold early, reducing the numbers of feeder cattle available for live-ex.
That situation pushed live export prices to a dizzying height of $5.50 a kilogram live weight at the start of this year.
MLA's live export price indicator is still sitting at $4.70/kg, and Nutrien's offer for Brahman feeder steers ex-Darwin is $4.80/kg, which are still historically very strong prices.
MLA is expecting live export numbers to pick up next year and reach 640,000 by 2024.
Mr Harvey-Sutton said the numbers that went to Indonesia in May showed demand was still strong.
He said a lot of work had been done by Indonesia's beef industry to reassure consumers that foot and mouth disease was not a food safety issue.
The industry delegation from Australia met with many importers and there was strong commitment from both sides to work together on the current challenges, he said.
"The fundamentals of the trade are still strong and the relationship with Indonesia is positive, despite all the challenges," Mr Harvey-Sutton said.
For all the big news in beef, sign up below to receive our Red Meat newsletter.