A SHIPMENT of corn, destined for Lebanon, has made history by being the first load to be sent out by Ukraine under the conditions of treaty between Ukraine and Russia to allow Ukraine to export grain.
The Razoni left Odesa, an important Ukrainian grain port, on Monday, with 26,000 tonnes of corn headed first to Turkey, where it will be checked by Turkish officials, and then ultimately to Lebanon, one of the countries hardest hit by the absence of Ukrainian grain from the market.
The shipment is the first to leave Odesa since February when the conflict began, raising hopes that the delicate peace deal will hold, with a further 16 ships reported to be loaded and awaiting departure.
However, while the shipment was seen as a positive news from another key Ukrainian port city, Mykolaiv, highlighted the difficulties with the deal.
Ukrainian media reported that the general director of Nibulon, a major Ukrainian grain business, Olexiy Vadatursky, had been killed when Russia launched a missile strike on Mykolaiv.
Mykola Gorbachov, president of the Ukraine Grain Association, said even if some grain did find its way out of the Black Sea ports total monthly Ukrainian grain exports could only at best be expected to be a third of average volumes prior to the conflict.
"Through the Black Sea ports we were averaging around six million tonnes a month in grain exports, that figure will now be around 2m tonnes allowing for grain being taken out via our western border and into European countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Poland," Mr Gorbachov told the Australian Grains Industry Conference (AGIC) last week.
"The problem is that our neighbours simply can't handle the volume of grain that the market is looking for," Mr Gorbachov said.
"Poland generally exports around eight million tonnes, Bulgaria 6m tonnes and Romania 20m tonnes but now they have to try and do their own exports along with the Ukrainian crop, it is just not possible," he said.
"Some of the exports head out via the Danube river on barges and there are weight limits, you can get 1200 tonnes but you have to get the right river channel, it has seen massive queues.
"We created the infrastructure in the Black Sea over time in the 25 years since independence, you cannot simply expect it to be created in Europe out of nowhere."
Stefan Vogel, Rabobank Australia general manager of research, said Russian occupation of 20 per cent of Ukraine through fertile areas in the east and south-east of the nation, may also impact the amount of grain produced.
"Russia has come up with an unexpectedly high official crop estimate," Mr Vogel said at AGIC.
"Could it be that it now Russia is counting those eastern Ukrainian regions as part of Russia, we have no proof, but it is entirely possible."
Mr Gorbachov said the conflict would stop Ukraine's rapid rise as a grain exporter even if the war ended shortly.
"There are labour shortages, there are input shortages, many of the winter crops were already planted before the conflict began so you may actually see a more pronounced drop next season."
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
