CHICAGO Board of Trade (CBoT) wheat futures have bounced sideways over the past three weeks as little new information has been forthcoming to spark a direction.
Supply from the northern hemisphere harvest is largely meeting current global demand and keeping downward pressure on prices.
Confirmation of grain ships moving from the Ukrainian port of Odessa last week has everyone wondering if significantly more supply is a possibility.
The ships leaving Ukraine have been stranded there full of grain since before the war.
Hence the owners of those ships and grain are very motivated to move them out of the region.
The question remains whether ship owners, traders and insurance companies will be willing to take on the risk of moving ships back into the region to pick up more grain.
For now, the market appears to be content to bounce sideways until there is confirmation one way or the other.
There is a lot of grain to move from Ukraine if it can get going.
Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food estimated about nine million tonnes of wheat and 4mt of barley had been harvested as of the beginning of August, adding to grain trapped since the war started.
North American spring crops appear to be developing in reasonable shape which is also keeping a lid on any upward movements in values.
United States spring wheat was estimated near 100 per cent headed and rated 70pc good-to-excellent by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) as of the start of August.
This compares with the crop rated just 10pc good-to-excellent last year and the five-year average rating of 52pc.
US corn was rated 61pc good-to-excellent as it progresses through pollination.
This compares with last year's rating of 62pc and the five-year average of 65pc.
US soybeans were rated 60pc good-to-excellent with 44pc estimated at podset stage.
The crop was rated 60pc good-to-excellent last year, also with the five-year average at 63pc.
Much of Europe continues to be dry impacting spring crops.
French corn was estimated at 63pc good-to-excellent a week ago, which was down from 68pc a week earlier and compares with a rating of 90pc the previous year.
Some analysts are indicating European corn production could be as low as 55mt.
USDA's current estimate is 68mt compared with 70.5mt last year, and 67mt in 20/21 and 19/20 according to the USDA.
For the moment the market doesn't appear to be considering this new information with little movement in values.
- More information: Contact Clear Grain Exchange on 1800 000 410 or support@cgx.com.au
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