DESPITE a vicious retail beef price war emerging between Australia's two dominant supermarket retailers over the past six weeks, there is little evidence yet of a resultant increase in turnover in beef, or luring market share away from independent butchers.
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Latest monthly meat-purchasing data for October compiled for the industry by Roy Morgan suggests both Woolworths' and independent butchers' share of fresh meat has grown a little over the past three months, while Coles' share is down around three share points over the same period. That trend has occurred across all fresh meats surveyed - beef, lamb, pork and chicken - and is particularly pronounced in NSW.
One theory is that the lower prices being offered by Coles and Woolies are serving to counteract each other in the marketplace, without in fact stimulating consumers to buy more beef, or shift current sourcing patterns. Another view is that such price moves often take some time to take effect in buying patterns.
For the month of September, Woolworths' 'New York taste test' advertisement was the most heavily aired advertisement on Australian television, indicating the emphasis the majors were placing on their beef offer at present.
Coles has not yet responded with a major beef campaign itself, but it is widely anticipated that that will change come January, when its new non-HGP offer is ramped up.
While independent butchers generally are concerned about retail beef pricing strategies being employed by supermarkets, most are holding their line on price and emphasising product quality and service attributes, said one observer.
For the three months from August to October, independents held a 29.4pc share of the national beef and veal market, with Woolworths slightly higher on 31.6pc and Coles group, 17.5pc.
Overall serves of beef and veal being consumed remain up on the same time last year, while chicken and pork remain steady.
That is not unexpected given the start of barbecue season, but beef volume will predictably trend down in coming weeks as traditional festive season purchasing of turkey and ham begins to dominate meat protein consumption.
In the lamb segment, despite higher price increases relative to other protein options, average lamb serves per week during spring were about 10pc higher than the same time last year.
Woolworths continues to lead the segment with 34.2pc of lamb market share, ahead of butchers on 31.7pc and Coles on 16.1pc.
Coles' lamb market share has slipped consistently since about January this year, when the company held 25pc of market share.
