GLOBAL food security was on the top of the agenda at last week's International Grains Forum in Perth.
The forum provided a global-scaled opportunity for growers, traders, millers, terminal operators, governments and other industry representatives to rub elbows with a diverse range of people involved in the grains business and discuss issues considered likely to effect the future of the global grains industry.
Food security was charged as being the greatest challenge in our history by master of ceremonies and author, Julian Cribb.
He said it was an issue greater than world wars and the global financial crisis and meant a lot more than simply putting food on the table.
International Grains Council (IGC) executive director, Etsuo Kitahara, acknowledged that the 2010/11 season throughout the world and particularly in Australia had been a challenging one.
"It has been particularly challenging for the global grains industry, especially in view of the crop shortfalls in parts of the world, most notably in the Black Sea region," he said. "Prices also have moved sharply higher since the council last met in June.
"Global availabilities of grain, especially wheat, remain quite ample and current higher prices are prompting producers to plant more grain for the next crop."
Mr Kitahara highlighted the council's five year global supply and demand projections to 2015/16.
He said despite this season's problems, global grain availabilities in the projection period, appeared to be higher than assumed at the same time last year.
Although the consumption figures had been revised upward, Mr Kitahara believed it hadn't resulted in major changes to the overall projected balance of supply and demand.
The five year baseline projections made for wheat predict a relatively ample supply and demand outlook.
"Global production in 2011 and subsequent years is placed higher than a year ago, mainly because of increased plantings in response to current price levels," Mr Kitahara said.
"Global stocks are projected to show little change over the next five years with those in the eight major exporting countries expected to remain adequate to meet export demand."
Mr Kitahara said the world wheat trade was expected to grow steadily to increase by two per cent a year to 133 million tonnes by 2015/16.
If this projection holds true then the figure would be 13m tonnes more than the forecast for the current year which would reflect the rising demand trends in Asia and Africa.
Barley is expected to regain ground following a rebound from a severely reduced global crop this year.
Mr Kitahara said global barley crops were expected to stabilise at about 148m tonnes over the next five years.
He said the modest increase in the world trade of barley would be associated with "slightly" higher feed demands in Asia and northern Africa and greater malting quotas in China.
Barley plantings in Australia were expected to rise during the projection period.
Mr Kitahara commended the Australian grain industry on its policy to encourage free trade in commodities.
"Being a resilient supplier despite frequent challenging crop conditions, Australia has greatly contributed to the stability of global grain markets over a long period of time," he said.
"It's strategic location near emerging economies in Asia and the Pacific will underpin its future position in this region.
"Recent government reforms in wheat export arrangements and improved market transparency have done much to enhance the efficiency of the global market place."
Mr Kitahara was joined on stage by a number of industry speakers including vice president of overseas operations for the US Wheat Associates, Vince Peterson.
Although Mr Peterson had a slightly different perspective on the attributes of the current global wheat industry, Mr Kitahara and his fellow presenters were all very frank about the seriousness of a potential global food shortage.
Other speakers for the day included Federal Agriculture Minister Joe Ludwig, former deputy executive of the world food program John Powell, managing director of Agrocorp Vijay Iyengar, CBH Grain wheat marketing manager Tom Puddy, executive director of agriculture, Macquarie Bank, Anthony Abraham, CSIRO Food Futures director Bruce Lee and Viterra president (South East Asia) Rob Gordon.
