THE Western Australian sheep flock is at its lowest level on record (13.8 million head) and is tipped to decline further if there is more disruption to the live export trade and if producers offload breeding stock due to Eastern States restocker and processor demand.
According to official statistics from the Ceduna border checkpoint in South Australia, during the 2019 calendar year there were 409,112 sheep and lambs transferred east from WA.
It was the highest number of sheep and lamb transfers in a single calendar year since 2011, when 417,223 were sent east.
It still remains well behind the record figure in 2010, when 1.02m crossed the border.
Last year's figures were 218 per cent higher than that seen in 2018 and 28pc higher than 2017.
Lambs made up the majority being 63pc of transfers.
In recent weeks reports have emerged of serious numbers of sheep being offloaded to Eastern States buyers and trucked east due to the quality prices on offer.
In January 2020, 27,050 sheep and lambs were transferred east from WA, with about 60pc (16,420) made up of lambs.
That trend is said to be continuing in February as Eastern States buyers are highly active in the market for all types of sheep.
Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) senior market analyst Adam Cheetham said WA flock numbers were "back due to dry conditions and recent destocking, in particular in southern regions".
"Prices in the west have found support from their eastern counterparts, however WA will look to conditions improving in the weeks ahead - the forecast looks more promising - and in particular how conditions track from April onwards," Mr Cheetam said.
MLA predicted last year that the national flock was expected to decline to 65.3m head by June last year.
Producers, agents and processors have all expressed concern that if the State's flock is reduced by one million head there will be difficult times ahead for local processors trying to source enough stock to fill their quotas.
Depending on seasonal conditions, prices on offer and demand from Eastern States, producers could easily offload now and worry about the long-term consequences later.
WAFarmers president Rhys Turton said he sent three separate truckloads of sheep away last week, all headed for different markets due to the prices on offer and to relieve some pressure on his farm.
Farm Weekly understands that seasonal conditions have recently forced some sheep producers to totally destock in the Lake Grace region, and they may not re-enter the market.