IF everything continues as it is, the Australian sheep industry will be in a good position going into 2021, according to Sheep Producers Australia (SPA) chief executive officer Stephen Crisp.
That's despite a volatile wool price that's keeping wool producers in suspense about where the industry is headed.
Mr Crisp said issues with China's commodity bans were not so much of a concern for the sheep industry - although a vital market, it was just one of many markets that lamb and mutton were sold into.
"We are still selling to 100 markets around the world and (going forward if China impacted trade further) we would look to capitalise on opportunities as they arose," Mr Crisp said.
"If everything continues as it is, it'll be fine.
"We just need to hold our breath, hold off the rhetoric and we are in a strong position."
Mr Crisp, a sheep farmer from Yass, New South Wales, said the SPA was looking at strategies for rebuilding the national flock, as well as what was attracting people in and out of the industry.
"We are doing everything we can to encourage building the flock size," Mr Crisp said.
"We need to increase it as a whole above 70 million head so processors have options as well - that's all we can do."
The flock dropped to its lowest level in 100 years to 65m head in 2019.
That was partly due to the long drought in the Eastern States which forced many farmers to offload until the break occurred.
Now that the drought has broken the industry is looking to rebuild.
Mr Crisp said with the flock rebuild happening in the east, the SPA had a program to assist producers.
"There's a fair bit going on in WA with all those sheep (1.5 million) being sold into the east," he said.
"It is good for producers because if you need to offload because of the weather they are paying $100 a head more than the local buyers.
"It makes it hard for processors to compete - they wouldn't want to see too much higher."
Mr Crisp said New England, NSW, was where a lot of the restocking was occurring with "demand still there".
"It's been really surprising, but I'm happy for producers," he said.
"They are still going through the spring flush and the rain keeps coming so spring seems to be extended.
"We expect there will still be strong buying for a month or so.
"But if there's a good opportunity (beyond that) they will jump on it.
"We expect it to slow up over Christmas and the new year while people have a breather, but the demand should continue until autumn, or another six months or so."
Mr Crisp expected a "reasonable number" of the lambs going into the east were headed to the processors but he wasn't sure how many of those were female.
Newdegate mixed farmer Bob Iffla said he sold about 300 cull lamb ewes "not quite 12-months-old" to the Eastern States this year at $230 a head.
"They were in pretty good nick," Mr Iffla said.
"I was really happy with the price."
He said a lot of sheep had been sold out of the area - particularly "good breeding stock", which was confirmed by Nutrien Ag Solutions and Elders livestock agents in the Lake Grace/Newdegate region.
They said there was a third of the sheep numbers in the district than there were 25 years ago and a lot of cull ewe hoggets and mature aged ewes, as old as five-year-olds, were being sold into the east because of the lack of water and feed.
They said a lot of younger farmers were deciding with the wool price lower than desired and the weather issues that they would destock and switch to total cropping to remove the stress of daily feeding and watering the livestock.
Road trains, at least "17 B-doubles a day", had been seen loaded with sheep passing through the district on their way east.
Elders livestock agent Graeme Taylor said it was "disappointing" to see so many sheep sold east and the high number "was going to affect us down the track".
"It's all because of the water issue," Mr Taylor said.
"It could get worse because of water unless we get some summer rains."
Mr Taylor said the impact to the sheep industry in WA could last a couple of years or more, depending on how future seasons go.
Agents also predicted that a "lot more sheep will have to go" if there's no summer rain, with "still more enquiry" from the east.
They said it was going to cause a "massive problem" for processors because they "fail to see how they are going to get enough to kill".
"There's big ramifications if the numbers stay down consistently," Mr Taylor said.
"We wait with baited breath for a thunderstorm which we haven't had for two to three years out here which is unusual."
Mr Crisp said he was concerned about the viability of WA processors if the sheep price continued to remain high.
"It would be a nightmare scenario to lose a processor," he said.
"That might be a long way off but it's a nightmare if one gets mothballed - the cost, loss of labor force - it's not a switch on switch off exercise."
Mr Crisp said the live trade market was still going well, as well as carcase delivery to those markets, but he questioned how long that would be able to continue if the air freight subsidy ceased.
"What happens if we lose that?" Mr Crisp said.
"Long-term supply is an issue but I think the trade will be fine."
He said the SPA "takes a strong interest" in the affairs of the WA sheep industry, after having "a lot to do with live export and trying to get that on track" in 2018/19.
The only response Farm Weekly received from questions to local abattoirs was that they would take the scenario as it comes and do the best they could to continue.
