Where has Australian grain been exported to?

Assuming this season is above average, and we have a large exportable grain surplus, it is worth having a look at where Australian grain exports have gone this season.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics export data from October 2020 to the end of March 2021 have Australian canola exports at 2,059,399 metric tonnes with an additional one million tonnes expected to be exported to the end of the marketing year (September 2021).

Of the estimated 3mt destined for export, Europe is expected to take the lions share of 2.4mt.

Most canola exports have made their way into Europe (as seen on the map) due to low production in the European Union (EU) last year.

Australia has been able to capitalise on this supply gap in the EU while also diversifying its export destinations having picked up business into the likes of Ukraine, Romania, and the United Arab Emirates.

The European Union Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) recently revised EU canola (rapeseed) yield estimates higher despite recent cold spells.

Even with increased production this season, European harvest is unlikely to impact remaining Australia canola exports as very little canola is left unsold.

At a global level, oilseed supply is very low while demand is increasing as feed demand rises and biofuel production ramps back up.

These supply and demand fundamentals have elevated Australian forward canola prices to record highs during May.

In the past couple of weeks old and new crop prices have come off their highs due to volatility in offshore oilseed futures, however the supportive drivers are still there underpinning the market.

These decile 10 prices and favourable seasonal conditions have seen a record canola crop planted this year with Western Australia alone estimated to have planted 1.5 million hectares.

If Western Australia can average 1.5 t/ha for canola, then it will reach record production.

While there is still plenty of time left in the season, here's hoping the 2021-22 season is one for the record books.

Australian wheat and barley export tonnage is expected to be above average in the 2020-21 season with strong international feed demand driving exports.

Australian wheat exports are currently anticipated to reach 21.5mt for the 2020-21 marketing year according to Australian Crop Forecasters' recent supply and demand report.

Barley exports are already exceeding estimates with 7mt set to be exported by the end of September.

Approximately half of this is destined for Saudi Arabia, whose insatiable demand has provided an important export destination for Australia, somewhat replacing the tonnage that used to go to China, albeit feed barley not malt.

South East Asia has also been an important market with Australian barley exports up 92 per cent year-on-year into this region.

This increased demand for barley is primarily due to the high cost of other feed grains (corn), which has made barley an attractive substitute.

The same goes for Australian wheat with increased demand from the South East Asian region seeing over half of Australia's wheat exports end up there.

The 2021-22 season is looking favourable for Australian grains with good weather, strong pricing and robust international demand providing optimism.