Victorian political commentators say Barnaby Joyce's elevation to the National Party leadership, and Deputy Prime Minister's position, is about standing up to its coalition partner.
They say of the Victorian Nationals, Gippsland MP Darren Chester, currently the Minister for Veterans Affairs, could be the biggest loser.
Victorian Senator Bridget McKenzie stands to gain the most.
Monash University senior lecturer in politics Dr Nick Economou said there were several reasons for tipping Mr McCormack out of the leadership, but the key one was climate change.
"It's about climate change again - so we can add Michael McCormack to the list of Australian political leaders who have been brought down by the issue," Dr Economou said.
"I suspect Michael McCormack's crime is that he didn't say 'no, no never' to a Liberal Party proposal to do away with carbon emissions by some ridiculous date.
"Clearly, what the Nats really want to do is put it right up the Liberals.
"What they thought was they needed someone who was really going to annoy the Liberals and really stick it up Morrison."
Dr Economou said the Nationals were "obviously a troubled lot," which could be explained in several ways.
"One is they are just not getting their way in the coalition agreement; they feel the Liberals are not listening to them and not taking them seriously," Dr Economou said.
"You also have a state divide there, the old Queensland-NSW divide, and all these Queenslanders wanted to take over.
"Or three, there's some big policy dispute going on within the Nats and that's caused a crisis - and actually all three thing are in play."
State divide
The change in leadership also had its roots in the Joh for PM years, when the late Queensland premier Joh Bjelke Petersen announced a tilt at Canberra in 1987.
"Everyone thought it was an aberration - but, no it wasn't, it was a sign of things to come," Dr Econmou said.
The Queenslanders had a "populist feel to them and are sensitive to a constituency that doesn't like economic rationalism, is socially conservative and doesn't believe in this climate change business.
"The NSW Nationals took their lead from John Anderson and became ardent free traders and pro the coalition."
Dr Economou said it appeared the National Party room felt its leadership lacked "grunt.
He said Victorian MP's such as Damian Drum (Nicholls) and Anne Webster (Mallee) would be safe.
"Those guys are protected by the Coalition agreement, so they don't have to face a three-way contest - they are National MP's for as long as they want to be," he said.
"I would think the person who is going to suffer most in the short term, in terms of promotions and demotions, is Chester."
He said Senator McKenzie could hope to be elevated to the cabinet again.
Deakin University senior lecturer in politics, Dr Geoff Robinson, said Mr Joyce was light on policy and focused on performance.
"But that's what modern politics is about, Morrison does it well," Dr Robinson said.
"The Victorian Nats have a middle of the road style, rather like the party in NSW, that doesn't go well with more populist Queensland style.
"Chester has that middle-of-the-road style and is liked by media but doesn't fit the culture of party federally."
Ideological fit
Dr Robinson said Senator McKenzie, who quit cabinet and resigned as deputy Nationals leader in the wake of the 2020 "Sports Rorts" affair, was an ideological fit for Barnaby Joyce.
"She's written a book on Jack McEwen, the 1960s Country Party leader," Dr Robinson said.
"He wanted to keep tariffs high to protect local manufacturing, especially in rural areas, now most Nationals are sceptical of plans to reduce carbon emissions because they think it will be bad for local industries.
"In so far as Joyce has thought much about policy, this seems to be where he's coming from.
"His victory suggests other MPs agree and want a tougher stand than Morrison on this."
He said arguing emissions reductions were bad for local jobs helped the Nationals in resource-dependent areas, but the Coalition held those seats anyway.
"It does the Coalition brand damage elsewhere, so I could see it generating tension in the Coalition," Dr Robinson said.
"In Victoria all the Nationals seats are safe (and Webster as a sitting member should be able to hold off Independents) but maybe Joyce could damage the Coalition brand in metro Melbourne."
Independent Tasmanian poll watcher and commentator Kevin Bonham said Mr McCormack had a bad week as acting Prime Minister and had created a "fair amount of ammunition for his opponents.
"With Barnaby Joyce in charge, you never know what you are going to get," Dr Bonham said.
"The Nationals appear to be more keen to stand up to the Liberals on climate targets, that's the suggestion of what's brought this on."
Dr Bonham said he didn't think it would have any impact on the average National Party voter.
"They are quite prone to keep voting for the party anyway, whatever happens," he said.
"I am interested in seeing how the relationship between the Liberals and Nationals is going to go from here because I think the Liberals felt it was working quite well, as it was.
"This is going to be more turbulent."
Andrew Miller
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
I'm a general reporter with Stock & Land, with a special interest in irrigation issues. I completed my cadetship, with the Age, in 1980. Over my career, I've worked for ABC radio news (Mt Isa, Qld) and at provincial and suburban newspapers.
