Dollar shifts drive optimism

In local dollar terms, prices were significantly higher due to the Australian currency remaining below the US0.76 cents handle during the selling week.

Overseas customers buying in US Dollars were able to either get more "bang for their buck", or pay a bit more in Australian Dollars.

The Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) lifted 20 cents a kilogram for local growers.

But the overseas customers only had a 4c/kg increase in this overall broad-brush indicator.

Prices for superfine Merino types again kicked more than the rest of the market and had common gains of 50c/kg.

Exceptional lots of the superfines easily increased by 100c/kg compared to the previous week's values.

Medium Merino types tried to follow.

Buyers are pushing themselves to look harder at these wools, and not have tunnel vision when it comes to the superfine sector.

But the best demand remains for wools measuring finer than 19-micron.

So, despite the disparity in pricing, the gap between categories continues to widen further.

Interestingly, quotes at the end of the week showed some topmakers increased their medium Merino quotes. But others reduced theirs.

This would reflect - to some extent - their position in the type, or their desire to sell a particular lot.

But it also highlights the trade's uncertainty about which way these prices will go in coming weeks.

Carding wool values in the Australian market continue to bubble along.

Prices are gradually increasing each week - at least for the past six weeks anyway - which would please the private buying fraternity that trades principally in these wools.

Of course, the end use for many Merino carding wools is knitwear of some description, and this season's retail trends are all about knitwear.

The "casual, comfortable, lounging" clothing segment has provided a big chunk of demand for Merino wool in this work from home environment that we are slowly emerging from (except for some states and countries).

Crossbred wools also had a positive sales week last week, meekly following their Merino cousins with small price rises.

But these sound more significant if quoted in percentage terms. For example, 28-micron types increased by 4 per cent.

Demand for these wools, from 26 to 36-micron is still very hard to find.

Perhaps the Australian industry is being too "China-centric".

Across the ditch, the New Zealand wool market jumped by another 5 per cent to make it four weeks in a row of significant price increases.

Rises of that magnitude are not simply one trader selling a bit and changing their position.

It is a harbinger of a change in trend, which is hopefully a long-term change.

The most interesting factor about the current New Zealand market is that it has, in the past, been dominated by Chinese inquiry resulting from infrastructure building projects, such as new hotels.

There is almost no inquiry from China at present.

But it seems every other country in the world has woken up and wants New Zealand carpet wool.

From Australia - where people renovating their homes are delighted to find that wool carpet is actually cheaper than nylon - to the UK, Europe, America and even other parts of Asia, consumers are placing orders that have not been there for several years.

How sustainable this demand remains when prices do pick back up, at least to a level where the grower is turning a profit after shearing, remains to be seen.

But at least there is some light at the end of the tunnel, and the reduction in sheep numbers may slow-down for a bit.

Merino wool demand is a whole different story.

Prices are good for growers, not that expensive for manufacturers and retailers and the trade is generally optimistic about the coming selling season - but still immensely troubled by the supply chains previously used to get product from A to B.

It is taking up to a month to get shipping space on a vessel from the day the cargo is booked.

Then, unless it is a direct transit - of which there are not many, with most transiting via Hong Kong, Singapore and the like - there is a voyage time of about twice the typical duration.

There seems to be no end in sight to this situation, as the global shipping cartels are quite happy with the status quo. Just-in-time delivery is a long-lost principle.

No doubt the textile industry will adapt, but it is causing quite a few headaches.

Although, some of the more astute have already pushed their purchasing horizon forward to compensate.

Even while the superfine bandwagon rolls-on, with 16-micron wools now costing 17 per cent of the cashmere price, there is no real noise coming from the downstream trade about these categories being too expensive - yet.

Of course, if the local currency was to shoot up again, local prices would be under a bit of pressure.

But a longer-term ceiling of 20-22 per cent of the cashmere price means there is scope for another 3-5 per cent upside in the Dollar before it runs into price resistance on that comparison.

The global supply of cashmere is expected to increase again this season, after a dismal 2020.

But perhaps pent-up demand, in the form of newly-released "Covidees" from Europe and America, will allow the cashmere price to continue at its current level - or even increase and take the 16-micron Merino price with it.

A report released by Cognitive Market Research into the global cashmere market raises the tantalising prospect of the market for this fibre increasing significantly through until 2027.

There is a plethora of companies offering similar reports into the cashmere industry, which all seem very similar on the surface - and expensive to purchase.

But a global, authoritative industry body to report such trends is harder to find.

Luckily in the wool industry, we can sort the wheat from the chaff much more easily.

Not everything in the wool industry is easy to measure, though.

There is always a bit of angst in the export/trading and early stage processing fraternity about upcoming sales volumes.

Try as they might, the wool broking fraternity does not seem to be able to collectively get a good handle on this.

The AWEX Four Week Forecast remains the best tool available to predict upcoming wool offerings, aside from anecdotal chats with brokers on the showfloor.

Just how much wool will be available in two weeks' time is a moving target, and a bit of a concern.

If the new financial year brings a surge of wool onto the market, there is a risk that there will be a price correction.

No trade players are in favour of a correction, as everyone has some stock in the pipeline - or customers who do.

But excess supply will always have a detrimental effect on price.

Hopefully with the four weeks of new financial year selling available this year, the 50,000-plus bale sale weeks will be avoided, and the market can sail through steadily until the winter recess.