THE RECORD breaking 2021-22 Australian winter crop may be even larger than previously thought according to one leading private grains analyst.
IKON Commodities released its updated 2021-22 production estimates and came out with figures substantially higher than those issued by the official forecaster the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
ABARES' most recent update was in November, when it predicted a national record 58.4 million tonnes, including 34.4m tonnes of wheat.
IKON's estimate of 39.04 million tonnes of production sits a healthy 13 per cent above the ABARES figure.
Chief executive at IKON Ole Houe said there was a key area where IKON and ABARES estimates differed.
"We have done a lot of work studying data and talking to growers in NSW and although there were the issues there were not that many that said in terms of tonnes produced they were far below last year," Mr Houe said.
The NSW wheat harvest receival figures were down -6.34pc on last year's record in the latest IKON numbers, a markedly lower reduction than other agencies.
"There were quality issues but even with the rain there was still a lot of grain produced," Mr Houe.
Leading the push upwards according to the IKON data were Queensland and WA.
Much has been made of WA's record breaking year, but Queensland recorded the biggest year on year increase in wheat receivals in percentage terms, up 45.6pc to 1.75 million tonnes, while WA was up 32.4pc to 21m tonnes.
Mr Houe said there was a solid upward revision since IKON's last report in November.
"We lifted total wheat production by 700,000 tonnes or 1.8pc, and there were bigger jumps in percentage terms in barley, up 2.74pc, and canola, up 3.06pc," he said.
He said he expected the next ABARES crop report, due in coming weeks, to ramp up its figures as well.
"Speaking to a few other analysts they are all moving their figures up," Mr Houe said.
Victoria and South Australia, which also recorded largely good years in 2020-21, enjoyed similar seasons, with Victorian wheat receivals up 1.9pc and South Australia down 2.8pc.
Looking forward, Mr Houe said even at this early stage, based on good subsoil levels, IKON was likely to put out an estimate for 2022-23 wheat production in excess of 30m tonnes, well above the historical benchmark for an average year of 25m tonnes.
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