CROP growth rates have been off the scale this season, largely due to unprecedented warm conditions last month which have pushed them to be well ahead of where they would normally be at this time of year.
According to the latest Grain Industry Association of Western Australia Crop Report, the crops generally look better than last year in many of the southern regions due to the advanced development and are in very good shape.
On the other hand, the northern regions were getting desperate for a drink and rainfall was crucial to maintain current grain yield potential.
With many areas in the north having received double digit rainfall over the weekend, the situation in the area should be looking more promising.
Crop report author Michael Lamond said climate models have suggested for a while the 2022 winter and spring in WA would be drier than average and this is still the case
"June 2021 was one of the warmest Junes for many grain growing regions in the past 30 years and accumulated day degrees, which is the measure for winter crop development in Western Australia, for the same time period was nearly eight per cent higher this year than last year," Mr Lamond said.
"Most regions are sitting on very low deciles for soil moisture, in part due to the rapid crop development but also due to below average growing season rainfall."
Overall, June rain was below average for much of the northern, central and parts of the southern cropping areas, as well as for the past three months.
Combined with warmer than normal daytime temperatures and stronger winds, this has resulted in below average estimated root-zone soil water.
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Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development senior research scientist Ian Foster said parts of the South Coast have retained above average soil water storage from rain in April and May.
"In this context, rain events during July will be important in providing water for crops," Dr Foster said.
"Total rain for July is expected to be below average over the cropping area.
"Climate models are indicating improving seasonal rainfall for southern WA from August onwards."
Most growers are well into their post-sowing management operations and many will be finished in a couple of weeks except for late insect and fungicide operations, including areas in the southern grain growing regions which is much earlier than normal.
The recent grain price fluctuations and dryer predictions for spring have many growers on edge, particularly north of the Great Eastern Highway where subsoil moisture reserves are running low.
A lot has been invested in maximising potential yield across the State and while the current condition of the WA crop has many positives, there are plenty of red flags as well.
"The warm conditions have bulked up crops and this top is running the moisture reserves down at a time when we need them to be building up for the inevitable warm temperatures to come," Mr Lamond said.
"On the other hand, the advanced development stages of most crops mean there will be less spring rain needed to finish grain fill.
"The looming risk is frost and many crops are going to be exposed to a greater period of frost risk than normal."
The predicted drier than average July and August mean clear skies rather than cloud cover which acts as a blanket for low temperatures.
Despite all of that, the current potential tonnage for WA is still around the 20 million tonne mark as there is the second largest crop in the ground and it is in mostly good condition.
Mr Lamond said the variance could be much wider than previous years due to the risk of low rainfall in the north and frost in the south.
"The downside could be quite significant if the predicted low rainfall spring eventuates," he said.
"Although if crops in the north receive further top-up rain in July and August and the southern regions escape the frost, current potential tonnage estimates could hold up."
When it comes to climate conditions in the Indian Ocean, most models are predicting the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event from winter.
While this promotes rainfall over inland and eastern Australia, it has a weak impact on southern WA.
"Oceans are warmer than normal around Australia, which can increase rain rates if weather systems can access it," Dr Foster said.
"Most climate models retain neutral or perhaps wetter rainfall outlooks for July to September 2022 for the agricultural area of WA, although the Bureau of Meteorology model has a drier outlook."
"Daytime temperatures are expected to remain above average."
