IT is official - Western Australian crops are on track for another near record year, at least according to the Grain Industry Association of WA (GIWA).
It's a result of good falls of rain for much of the grainbelt at the beginning of the month, and for most of August, with frost and possibly a blast of heat the only obstacles on the horizon.
The latest report from GIWA, released last Friday, predicted total WA grain production would almost certainly exceed 20 million tonnes and potentially nudge last year's total of just under 24mt.
Report author Michael Lamond said crop growth has slowed down in the past month due to the cooler temperatures.
"Most are now at about normal growth stages for the time of sowing, rather than a week or two more advanced than has been the case for most of the year," Mr Lamond said.
"However, for many regions, crop development timing will now coincide with the frost risk period through September and early October.
"Crops have also put on more bulk following the rainfall in August and this extra top may push crops into a greater risk of heat shock from hot winds during grainfill."
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Even though the top end potential across the State for most regions is not as good as last year, the current total grain production potential is on par with 2021 due to less waterlogging and more stored subsoil moisture available to finish crops.
The biggest boost to potential is the big areas of the eastern Wheatbelt where there are no poor pockets of low rainfall as there was last year.
Ultimately the inevitable impact from potential frost and heat will largely determine the final outcome.
However, the majority of crops in the northern agricultural region have moved past the stage of heat shock being a concern.
Wheat has well and truly passed flowering and has reached about three quarters grain fill, lupins have pretty much finished flowering and are in the process of pod fill and the majority of canola probably has 10-15 percent, maybe 20pc, left flowering.
Mullewa farmer Robert Kitto said all of the northern ag area had reasonable rain over the past six weeks and there was enough moisture in the soil to finish crops off.
"The weather patterns for the next two to three weeks are not suggesting any huge rises in temperature, but even if the day time temperatures started reaching 35 degrees all of a sudden, I don't think there would be a lot of losses," Mr Kitto said.
"Personally, we've had more than 200 millimetres in the past six to seven weeks, so it's still pretty damp where we are and if there is a bit of heat shock, it shouldn't hurt the crops too much."
While there is plenty of upside, cereal crops were generally underdone for nitrogen this season which will impact on grain yields and protein levels.
As a result, most growers expect a higher percentage than normal of their grain being delivered to the lower grades at harvest.
"The high grain yields and corresponding high nitrogen extraction by crops in 2021 have been followed by high nitrogen prices and a bearish outlook for rainfall early in this growing season which combined to reduce nitrogen use this year," Mr Lamond said.
"This has potentially resulted in a lot of grain left in the paddock as a consequence of being under fertilised."
Overall, it was a costly year to grow grain and while the expected high tonnage will offset the lower grain prices on offer leading into harvest, growers are likely planning for a reduced area planted next year as they will be more exposed to the projected high input costs.
Highlights from the season so far have included an incredible recovery from the very dry start, particularly in the northern regions of the State, and the general increase in bulk of all crops once the rain got going in the second half of July.
The excellent management of canola crops in the low rainfall regions where many had not grown the crop for up to 10 years was also a focal point.
"While the season has gone our way in the past seven weeks, the overall management by growers has had a very positive impact on the potential of the crop," Mr Lamond said.
