WESTERN Australian lotfeeders' confidence in the long-term future of the industry remained relatively unshaken this year, despite some challenging trading conditions.
Take the September quarter at face-value and you may think otherwise, but there is more to the numbers than meets the eye.
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In a nutshell - the State's grainfed cattle numbers fell quite substantially by 26 per cent quarter-on-quarter, however increased by 40pc or 11,500 head year-on-year.
At the same time, WA feedlot capacity increased by 25pc and hit a new record of 91,000 head.
This was up from 73,500 head on year-ago levels or 1500 head quarter-on-quarter.
So why are the numbers on feed down if the pen space - or capacity to run more cattle - is up?
"Lotfeeders are building pen space so substantially, which makes the number of cattle on feed look worse," said Meat & Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson.
"In saying that, challenging trading conditions and rising input costs have also placed pressure on the industry this year.
"We've seen cattle supply, labour shortages, diesel and grain prices, logistical issues and wet weather affect lotfeeders' capacity to operate - particularly those on shorter fed programs."
Mr Atkinson said, "despite the challenges, there appears to be solid confidence in the longer-term outlook of feeding cattle".
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"People aren't going to spend all their money on increasing their capacity to have cattle, if they aren't confident in the longer-term picture of the lotfeeding industry," he said.
As for turnoff, Mr Atkinson said numbers remained firm for the quarter and were only down 2500 head or 4500/h year-on-year.
He said this meant WA's grainfed production percentage - compared to its total beef production - would be down in the September quarter.
This would most likely also be the same for every other State.
"We will see more grassfed cattle go through the system in the September quarter, which is not out of the ordinary."
Taking a look at the bigger picture, Mr Atkinson said WA's turnoff had grown since 2011, by a whopping 117pc or 89,000 head.
He said this showed how much the sector had grown in the past decade.
"Compared to other States, WA's growth in the 2011 financial year was by far the highest in percentage terms.
"It blew everywhere else out of the water by 100pc.
"But in actual terms or numbers, it wasn't as high as Queensland, simply because Queensland is much bigger."
This year, the national cattle herd rebuild continued with many producers choosing to hold onto cattle because "they don't want to sell, if they don't have to".
When it comes to the rebuild, Mr Atkinson said WA was following in New South Wales' and Victoria's footsteps.
"WA had a really good season last year, and again this year," he said.
"But 2020 wasn't record-breaking and this was the time the Eastern States' rebuild would have started.
"There is such a lag because it takes so much longer for cattle to reach weight and age to go into a feedlot."
Meanwhile, there has been less of a supply pool at the saleyards because producers are wanting to retain numbers.
Mr Atkinson said this clearly was going to impact capacity to buy cattle.
He said WA was natural in the way it marketed cattle, with more vealer cattle sold here compared to the Eastern States, which are usually held on until they are yearlings.
"Spring numbers in WA have improved, but over winter they were low," he said.
"Supply through the year to the end of September was below the 2021 average.
"It is definitely making it difficult to try and fill pens."
Smaller number of cattle on feed
The reduced number of cattle on feed, is a telling sign of just how tough trading conditions have been for Australia's feedlot industry.
Australian Lot Feeders' Association president Barb Madden said there had been some relief in feeder cattle prices this quarter, with the indicator down 9pc or 48 cents per kilogram (c/kg) live weight (lwt).
This was despite wheat ex-Darling Downs softening 6pc - or $23 - to average $389/tonne on the Ukraine war infalted highs of June quarter, and wheat prices remaining 16pc higher, or $55/tonne on year-ago levels.
"Despite these challenges it is pleasing to see cattle on feed remain above one million head - pointing to the resilience of lotfeeders," Ms Madden said.
MLA's Ripley Atkinson said national capacity breaking new ground to reach 1.51 million, was a sign of longer-term confidence in the sector.
He said the turn-off had seen a solid uptick, rising by 7pc or 46,400 head at a national level to 714,000 head, demonstrating the significant contribution of the grainfed sector to total beef production.
"This has translated to strong export demand with strong improvements in volumes to South Korea and China in particular," Mr Atkinson said.
"Export volumes mostly remained firm quarter-on-quarter, continuing the trend of strong export performance to a diverse range of markets reflecting solid demand for Australian grainfed beef."
