FARMERS who have received more than 40 millimetres of steady rain in the past two weeks, especially in the central and southern regions of the State, have taken the opportunity to put canola in the ground.
After a dry January and February, thunderstorms in late March have delivered welcome rain for much of the agricultural area, said Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) research officer Ian Foster.
This (rain) has continued into early April, with eastern areas receiving good falls, though the south west and south coast have received less rain to date.
"Estimated root-zone soil water storage is well above average for northern, central and eastern parts of the agricultural area, but it remains patchy in southern areas," Dr Foster said.
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) has predicted in its latest crop report that between half to two-thirds of intended canola plantings will go in the ground in the central medium to low rainfall regions of the State.
"This is a golden early planting opportunity for those growers and should ensure yield levels that will be profitable irrespective of what happens during the winter," the report said.
The northern regions of the grainbelt have had some very good falls of rain along the eastern low rainfall corridor, and growers took the chance on sowing several paddocks to canola before the soil surface dried out.
GIWA believes the Esperance port zone didn't receive enough rainfall for seeding, however rain from last harvest has created good levels of stored soil moisture.
This means when the break occurs, seeding decisions will be easier.
"In sharp contrast, the very long growing season and dry summer for most of the State has left soil moisture reserves low, particularly in the northern regions," the report said.
In the Geraldton zone, most of the recent rain fell in the eastern low rainfall corridor from Yuna down to Mullewa and Latham - and any areas that had more than 60-80mm of rain on the medium soils have sown canola.
"The warm conditions and very dry subsoil has tended to hold back plantings on the lighter country due to the risk of the topsoil drying out before the canola had time to germinate," the report said.
"In this warm northern environment, canola nearly always ends up more even if rain falls on top after sowing, rather than having to walk the fine line when chasing moisture between sowing deep enough to get a germination, but not too deep to prevent emergence."
At this stage, GIWA predicts it is likely up to two thirds of the intended canola area will go in dry, leaving the remainder as a "wait and see" option.
Rain on the lighter country has fired up tractors deep ripping and undertaking other soil amelioration operations.
The soil profile in the Kwinana North Midlands is very dry, drained by the huge crops in 2022.
After 50-80mm, some farmers have sown a few paddocks with canola, and GIWA predicts farmers will begin to sow in dry now that Easter is over.
At this stage, GIWA expects the canola area will be equal to 2022, and the later the general break occurs, canola will progressively be dropped in favour of fallow in the east and cereal in the west.
"Availability of seed of the canola varieties best suited to these early rains has been a cause of frustration for some growers seeking to maximise the opportunity offered by the early rains," the report said.
The bulk of the good rains were in the eastern areas of the Kwinana North zone, with some growers receiving well over 100mm from several rainfall events.
"The epicentre where most of the rain fell was around Merredin, and up to half of intended canola plantings are now in the ground," the report said.
There were also heavy falls in the Kwinana South zone, forming a triangle north-east of a line from Narrogin to Quairading, Corrigin and south Tammin, north to Wyalkatchem and west to Northam.
Some growers received more than 100mm from several rainfall events and are taking the opportunity to get canola sown into moisture.
"Around half of intended canola plantings will go into moisture in this area of the State and with good reserves of subsoil moisture in the ground, the rest will be planted dry," the report said.
Growers with the heavier falls have waited for germination and are sowing canola into moisture now.
For growers not seeding canola, the rain will allow for a decent knockdown as many winter weeds have come up, and it will give them confidence going into 2023 with subsoil moisture in the ground.
GIWA believes having 50mm plus of effective subsoil moisture at the start of the season will nearly ensure average grain yields for most if the break is in May and there is average rainfall over winter.
The majority of the West Albany zone missed out on the recent rainfall of the past two weeks except for the very north-east portions around Williams and Arthur River, where some canola is going in on moisture.
There were some heavier falls around Frankland and Kendenup, although these were pretty isolated.
There is also some winter wheat being sown in areas that received enough rain to get a germination.
The remainder of the region had light falls of 20mm or less.
Most growers in the Albany East zone received between 25-75mm of rain from the last couple of rainfall events.
The variability of falls increased from north to south, with very few areas south of Pingrup receiving enough rain to sow into.
Some canola and Illibo wheat is being planted, although most are waiting on a germination of weeds before deciding on whether to start sowing.
Most of the Esperance port zone had falls of between 5-30mm, and except for some areas east around Beaumont, there has not been enough moisture to sow into.
Some small areas of canola have gone in on moisture, as have some paddocks of vetch for stockfeed.
The region has good reserves of moisture from the rain leading up to and during harvest, and growers are in no rush to risk a split germination if the moisture is not adequate to get a nice germination.
According to the GIWA crop report, farmers have decided to take a risk averse approach this year, with a higher probability of lower rainfall this season.
The substitution from barley to wheat is expected to continue, unless barley prices begin to strengthen.
A late break could see a decrease in the amount of canola planted, but many farmers have already planted their canola after an early break.
Pulse and lupin areas are flagged to drop now that the price of nitrogen has fallen from previous highs.
Despite growers wanting to reduce their sheep numbers across the State, GIWA believes the manufacturing and export brake on older stock may see pasture area remain about the same for the time being.
There may be a slight increase in area intended for hay, as there are signs of strengthening market signals.
In the Geraldton zone, lupins are likely to be dropped out of the rotation due to the mountain of carry-over grain still in store, particularly now that the price of nitrogen has come back a little.
Wheat will again be the dominant crop, with the recent trend of later sown paddocks increasingly going to a short season barley such as Buff for feed.
In the Albany region, many growers have been caught with sheep - and rather than quitting them for a loss - GIWA predicts most farmers will carry them for another year and may need an extra pasture paddock or two to run them on.
"A lot of pasture is going in although the uncertainty around the live sheep game has lowered growers outlook for sheep and most are planning for at least the same area of crop as 2022," the report said.
Weeds seem to be under control across the region, with a lack of a green belt in the Albany zone and weeds receiving a knock-down across the State.
The lack of a green bridge means pest and disease pressure will be at the lower end of the scale, which should help keep the crop costs down.
Those that have decided to wait in the Kwinana zone are content with getting a decent knockdown on weeds that have germinated.
"It has been cool enough to get most of the winter weeds up, and being able to get a non-selective herbicide on the country is a valuable alternative to solely relying on pre-emergent herbicides to do the bulk of the work," the report said.
There is strong agreement among climate models that below normal rain is more likely from April to June over most of Australia.
"Predicted atmospheric pressure patterns show higher pressure south of WA which could drive lower rainfall over southern WA," Dr Foster said.
Jasmine Peart
Jasmine is a earnest listener and a passionate advocate for justice. She feels privileged to be trusted by farmers across Western Australia to tell their truth.
Jasmine is a earnest listener and a passionate advocate for justice. She feels privileged to be trusted by farmers across Western Australia to tell their truth.
