GIWA predicts a drop in planting by 8pc, as WA gets varied amount of rainfall

Since early April, a belt from about Narrogin to Moora, stretching inland, has received a fair amount of rain - and appears to still have some soil moisture.

Quairading appears to be sitting on a pot of gold in the most recent radars, with the area having the most soil moisture.

But travel 100 kilometres north or south of this belt and the soils are dry.

The latest Grains Industry Association of WA (GIWA) report said the 2023 graingrowing season was shaping up to be "one of extremes".

A big section of country in the centre of WA has received enough rain to bog machinery, while there are other growers who have received very little.

"The predicted low decile year is certainly shaping up for some regions while others could be forgiven for thinking they are on a different planet," the report said.

With the Bureau of Meteorology climate model predicting a drier than average winter, regions have definitely started to feel the impact of limited rain this season.

GIWA predicts seeding will wind up for most growers by the end of the week, making it an early finish - kickstarted by the early March rains and a reduction in area sown.

This year, GIWA predicts that a total of 8,290,000 hectares will be seeded, compared to the 8,908,000ha predicted in May last year - a drop off of about eight per cent.

Canola area is down about 18pc compared to 2022 and the wheat area is also predicted to be down slightly from 2022 numbers.

GIWA believes the barley area will be back slightly because of a switch to wheat, which has continued in once barley dominated regions of the State, along with lupins.

"Potential grain production for 2023 will certainly now not match the high of 2022 or 2021," the report said.

"The reduced area planted, the lack of subsoil moisture in the top third of the State's graingrowing region, and the percentage of crop still not out of the ground, will add up to significantly reduced potential tonnage production in 2023."

Geraldton zone

With light showers across patches of the Geraldton zone, some dry sown crops which had little to no subsoil moisture received the rain they needed to survive.

Crops that went in following the 60-100mm of rain along the eastern edges of the zone in March, are now at the three to four-leaf for wheat and six-leaf stage for canola, according to GIWA.

The coastal areas have very little crop emergence and the north Midlands is the same.

There has been a dramatic reduction in canola and lupins with very few lupins sown in the Geraldton Port zone.

GIWA believes it is going to be a mainly cereal dominated program for most in 2023.

The Geraldton zone has been a bit of a "mixed bag", according to Elders senior agronomist Peter Elliott-Lockhart.

It is reportedly dry in some spots east of Geraldton, however there are strips that have received anywhere between 40-100mm of rain.

"They've probably been seeding into moisture and I've got six-leaf canola coming out of the ground," Mr Elliott-Lockhart said.

"Then there's a strip, a lot of sand, that's been half wet and half dry with a variable amount of rain on it.

"And then you've got some coastal strips and some other sandplain strips that have had maybe 10-20mm of rain over the past six months - which are half wet/half dry."

Mr Elliott-Lockhart said quite a few growers were "dubious" about whether they wanted to put canola in the ground.

As is an issue across WA, quite a few farmers have had to keep more pasture to accommodate livestock they have kept onfarm for an extra year.

The average break in the Geraldton zone is between May 20-25, however Mr Elliott-Lockhart believes it will be later with the rain radars looking dry.

Kwinana zone

It's a mixed story in the Kwinana zone, with some farms benefitting from a large amount of rain, while others were not as lucky.

According to GIWA, growers in the Kwinana North Midlands region have an uncomfortable feeling that 2023 is shaping up to be similar to 2019.

"Like 2019, there has been virtually no summer rain and soil profiles are completely dry from the previous year," the report said.

"Very little crop had emerged in the region prior to last weekend, where falls of between 5-10mm have allowed the canola, lupins and some of the barley that had been sown dry, to emerge."

A majority of wheat, about 50pc of the cropped area, still needs to be sown and a small percentage of barley is left to be sown too.

Dalwallinu farmer Stuart McAlpine said he has received very little rain and had "virtually no" subsoil moisture anywhere.

Mr McAlpine said his plan was more conservative this year and he didn't have any canola or lupins up because there was no subsoil moisture.

Depending on whether he received rain in the coming weeks, he will decide whether he will plant more canola - having only seeded about half of his planned canola so far.

"We've finished off the lupins, we delayed them a little bit because we got into a situation where it was half wet and half dry with limited subsoil moisture - so it's a day-by-day position at the moment," Mr McAlpine said.

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Also running cattle, he said he was in a fortunate position to be able pivot, depending on the season.

Despite the models being unfavourable, Mr McAlpine said he was only one very good rainfall event away from a good season.

Having had similar seasons with similar conditions that turned out to be good yielding years, Mr McAlpine is still slightly optimistic.

In contrast, Kwinana South and North East has received some good rainfall this season, with GIWA stating Kwinana North East has had a repeat of the start to the 2022 season with good rain in March and April taking subsoil moisture reserves up, giving growers an early seeding opportunity.

Continued light falls of rain have kept the wheels turning and most will wind up seeding in a week or so.

Planting of canola remains elevated in the north east and south, with 80pc of the canola established in the south being "excellent" with most of the early sown canola at six to eight leaf, according to GIWA.

Cunderdin, Elders farm supplies sales manager Aaron Cooper said no one in the area should be complaining when compared to some other parts of the Wheatbelt.

"Our Cunderdin rain chart is showing about 120mm so far, there is a good amount of sub-soil moisture from early storm systems currently," Mr Cooper said.

"But we can always do with a drink or a 5-7mm rain event to keep the germinated crops in check."

Throughout Cunderdin, all canola was in the ground and most people were "well and truly" into their wheat programs.

He said farmers in the area were happy that most chemical and fertiliser inputs were on their way down.

Nutrien Ag Solutions, Bruce Rock branch manager Boston Whooley said soil moisture in the area, including Shackleton and Ardath, was looking good.

"We've had good April rain, that set up a lot of subsoil moisture - we've been pretty lucky with a few 5-8mm rainfall events," Mr Whooley said.

"It's just about keeping moisture in the top soil for us, I think most guys are still hitting moisture with their cereals."

Mr Whooley said canola in the area was at the two to four leaf stage, with really good germination.

"Most people are 50pc through their wheat and should be finished in the next 14 days," he said.

He was expecting the forecast to be dry over the next two weeks, but said farmers felt confident in the subsoil moisture.

"There's really good potential setting up at the moment," he said.

"If we can tip along with average rainfall from now on, we should be looking at average or above average yields.

"It's been pretty smooth for a lot of people."

Albany zone

While most of the Albany South area - and especially the coastal regions - have experienced a good amount of rainfall, other areas were not so lucky.

A stretch of country between Gnowangerup and south east to Jerramungup is described as very dry, with GIWA saying very little canola sown had emerged.

Despite this, farmers in the area have pushed on with seeding and have moved onto cereals.

Nutrien Ag Solutions, Wagin agronomist Will Tan said soil moisture was a "mixed bag" between Darkan and Wagin.

In terms of rainfall, it doesn't take much for some areas to miss out.

"It's been looking quite dry between Darkan and Wagin, Williams' (rainfall) is obviously about twice of what Darkan and Wagin is, but then you go south towards Katanning and it's half of what Wagin is," Mr Tan said.

As for seeding, farmers in the area are "going for it".

"It's a real mixed bag, some guys are well ahead of schedule, some are a bit behind schedule," he said.

"Last year was a much more chilled season, the hardest part about last year's seeding was trying to do sheep work among all the rain.

"This year we're probably a bit more worried about the chemical efficacy, with such low rainfall during seeding, but we have had enough rain to germinate things."

Mr Tan said canola crops in the area showed promise, with some crops at a four to six leaf stage, or six to eight leaf in some cases when sown about the first week of April.

"We've had some good germinating rains, but it's nowhere near the past two years," he said.

Looking ahead, Mr Tan said farmers had mixed emotions.

"A lot of farmers are definitely looking at the past two years and thinking 'there's no way we're going to have a third big year'."

But seeding wasn't the biggest concern for mixed enterprise farmers, Mr Tan said uncertainty about live export was more worrying for some.

"A lot of farmers had to pull out of crops this year, just to keep their sheep onfarm since they couldn't sell them," he said.

Mr Tan said input costs have reduced over the year, offering relief across the board.

"But the long-term outlook does look like it will be a bit of a dry year," he said.

In a sharp contrast further south, areas between Kojonup to Mt Barker have received very little rain, with reports that some emerged canola crops are starting to wilt.

Pockets of this southern area are especially dry, including Tambellup which has not seen crops emerge from the ground.

Despite a lack of rainfall in the area, a similar amount of canola has been planted as in the 2022 season.

GIWA said canola crops which were sown at the end of March/early April were ready for a nitrogen top-up and their first weed control application.

"Crops were slow to get to four leaf and with the dry forecast coming up, this has probably been a good thing," the report said.

Progressing well, many growers in the Albany East region are set to finish seeding by next week.

Patchy rainfall across the region has meant that soil moisture has been moderate, but not enough rain has been felt for seeds to germinate on heavier soils.

Soil profiles are very dry, with a lack of prolonged rainfall since harvest last year.

The timing of early rains gave growers the confidence to sow similar quantities to last year, not discouraged by the drop in canola prices.

Esperance zone

Esperance has seen a drop in barley planted, however wheat is up slightly and canola has remained the same compared to last year, according to the latest crop report.

Lupin and pulse crops are still not a popular choice.

Growers are most of the way through seeding, with about 50pc of the crop having germinated.

This area saw more dry sowing of full programs - particularly in the west, however rain over last year's harvest continues to provide a helpful buffer of subsoil moisture should this season be dry, as predicted.

The eastern areas around Beaumont, east of Salmon Gums and Grass Patch are in good shape, as well as the coastal areas, which have had enough rain to get crops up.

Mt Madden farmer Lindsay Brownley said despite his soil being dry, he wasn't worried.

He planted vetch in moist soil, lupins and canola into patchy soil and has just finished dry seeding wheat.

"Canola is sitting there patiently waiting for some rain," Mr Brownley said.

Seeding began mid-April, and after a short break, his team will be back on the seeder to plant barley and then peas in mid-June.

They've seen germination and are beginning to control weeds.

"They (lupins) all seem OK, just sitting there, we had a bit of a dig and they haven't gone all mushy and mouldy yet," he said.

"We're just waiting for that nice steady 10mm of rain."

Fairly unbothered by the dry outlook, Mr Brownley said he was staying level-headed.

"I don't mind a bit of a dry spell after you've put your crop in, it gets the root system developing," he said.

"It doesn't matter when you put your crop in, it's what happens after it.

"We've been doing this for 30 years and we've had a crop every year,

"I'm quietly confident - if we haven't had rain by the end of June I'm going to start getting worried.

"We don't need a lot of rain, we just need it at the right time."

Ian Richardson, Lake Camm, has finished seeding, following more than 100mm of rain over March and April.

"The last couple of paddocks were a bit dry but everything else has come up," Mr Richardson said.

His program, which started on March 30, included oats, barley, lupins and fava beans covering 8500ha.

"I can't see why it won't be an average year," Mr Richardson said.

"East of us is a bit dry, but all throughout here, we're fine."

Mr Richardson said his crop had germinated and now they were taking on post-emergence spraying and putting urea into the soil.

"Our (crops) are powering along."