A VETERAN local wool buyer - now retired - who bought greasy wool for the largest wool top maker in China, used to say it required 5000 bales a week "just to keep the wheels of industry turning" there.
Perhaps brokers selling at the Western Wool Centre (WWC) should remember that number.
As the current Australian Wool Selling Program winds down - there are four trading weeks to go this season at the WWC - it seems that most times when the WWC's weekly offering goes well past 5000 bales the market stumbles.
Last week, with 7858 bales on offer after 1085 bales - or 23.7 per cent - were withdrawn ahead of the second day's trading, the Western Market Indicator (WMI) stumbled 16 cents a kilogram lower to 1402c/kg clean.
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The WMI has only been below 1400c/kg three times this season - for two weeks September-October, when it sunk to its lowest point for the season so far at 1363c/kg, three weeks early to mid-November and two weeks late November-early December.
It hit a high for the season of 1570c/kg in early February.
As happened the previous week - when the market took a dive rather than a stumble - withdrawing a swag of bales before the second day's trade helped the market find its feet again.
Price falls of between 6c/kg (for 19-micron) and 23c/kg (for 21-micron) across the Merino fleece spectrum on the first day, were replaced by increases of 1c/kg for 18.5, 20 and 21-micron fleece and up to 5c/kg for 19-micron fleece on the second.
As usual, buyers sought better types with low vegetable matter.
Merino cardings continued a downward trajectory, sinking 47c/kg to a new low for the season of 738c/kg.
On the first day, 1139 bales - 26pc of the offering - were passed in and 651 (18.7pc) on the second.
But there is a potential up-tick to the current trend.
It takes about eight weeks for wool to get from Fremantle to Chinese processors and counting eight weeks ahead puts last week's wool purchases arriving in China in the middle of the WWC's annual three-week live auctions recess in July.
So, in theory, Chinese woollen mills may still need to quickly buy at least two weeks' worth of wool in advance to get them through the WWC auctions recess.
This week, the WWC offering is set to increase 784 bales to 8642 bales and the national offering is set to jump 3447 bales to 45,936.
