The shortage of urea in south-eastern Australia where grain growers have unexpectedly strong yield potential could have a material impact on the size of the national crop this season.
Stephen Annells, Fertilizer Australia executive manager, said earlier this month that the lack of adequate nitrogen on crops with far more yield potential than anticipated due to good winter rainfall could mean yields failed to match that potential, leading to lower overall production.
He said the problem was exacerbated as farmers were generally confronted with paddocks with low nitrogen levels.
"After last year's big crops that ripped a lot of N out you won't have a lot of nitrogen in reserve so the crops will need some fertilising to achieve their potential should the good conditions continue," he said.
"There are some years where there are good residual levels of nitrogen but most people took off big yields last year, which is a good thing, but it also uses up a lot of soil nitrogen."
Shane Dellavedova, Dellavedova Fertiliser Services, Maryborough, Victoria, said the wet winter had caught farmers and industry on the hop, leading to the situation where nitrogen fertiliser was hard to get hold of.
"In our district we went from a fairly dry May and the Bureau of Meteorology predicting markedly below average winter rainfall to June rainfall roughly double the long-term average," he said.
"Farmers are now contemplating crops with much higher yield potential than what we were thinking towards the end of autumn based on the autumn rain we had received and the forecast for a markedly lower chance of average winter rainfall."
"It has been a big turnaround in the season and that has been reflected in grower demand for product."
Craig Henderson, Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president, said members were reporting difficulties getting hold of urea at present.
"It's pretty tight at the moment, we didn't order enough, given the negative weather outlook and the likelihood of falling prices, people did not want to tie up capital buying urea they may not have ended up putting out, but that's changed now and unfortunately it looks like supplies will be hard to find," he said.
"There will be some growers, even with the wetter than expected winter, that won't want to push things too hard because of concerns of the season shutting off, but others have reconsidered their position."
While there is still concern about a dry spring, with the BOM sticking firm to its expectations of an El Nino-inspired dry period kicking off at some stage during the growing season, climate agronomists have said that in the south even below average rain would be enough to lead to average yields.
"We've worked out that from here in parts of Victoria a decile 2, even a decile 1 finish from here, providing we don't have plants weakened by waterlogging, or we run into excess heat or frost, would most likely be enough to achieve average results given soil moisture reserves," said Agriculture Victoria climate agronomist Dale Grey.
Faced with a lack of incoming supply internationally the fertiliser industry is reportedly looking at intra-continental movement of product from areas with less demand, although this means added transport costs to end users.