Cattle herd now in liquidation, ABS data shows female slaughter at 48pc

The latest livestock production figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the national herd slipped into liquidation during the June quarter.

The female slaughter ratio has risen to 48 per cent, which crosses the 47pc threshold for tipping the herd from rebuild into liquidation.

This is the highest it has been since 2020.

The extent of offloading in the parts of the country where dry conditions have set in and the feed base has dwindled has been enough to turn the national tide, despite a number of cattle growing regions still being in a very good position.

Cattle slaughtered in the June quarter increased 0.9pc to 1.7 million, the ABS data shows.

Beef production in that period increased 1.9pc to 534,207 tonnes. The gross value of cattle and calves slaughtered decreased 4.4pc to $3.3 billion.

Analyst Simon Quilty, Global AgriTrends, said the current weekly kills indicated the next set of quarterly numbers would show that liquidation was occurring at an even faster rate.

"What is very clear is that Australia's rebuild has stopped, and with areas getting drier as we move into an El Nino we will see more contraction of the herd as female slaughterings move higher," he said.

Carcase weights were falling due to the dry conditions across all states except South Australia, he said.

"The increase in production is due to these dry conditions and as a result has seen the percentage of product that goes to the domestic market decrease, with more emphasis on export markets," Mr Quilty said.

Episode 3's Matt Dalgleish said the increase to the FSR over the June quarter brings the annual average for 2023 to 45.2 per cent.

"So on an annual basis, we aren't quite at the liquidation phase . . . yet," he said.

Sheep slaughtered in the June 2023 quarter increased 36.3pc to 3.2 million; while mutton production lifted 37.6pc to 80,725t.

Lambs slaughtered actually decreased 0.2pc to 5.7m yet lamb meat production was up 1.2pc to 139,207t.

Meat & Livestock Australia says the statistics highlight the growth in mutton production across the board so far this year.

Australia produced the most lamb on record in the calendar year 2022, MLA analysts said.

For the first six months of 2023, lamb producers are tracking 7.7pc above year-on-year levels or 20,000 tonnes.

"This indicates another strong, potentially record-breaking year for Australian lamb producers," said market information manager Stephen Bignell.

"Over 11.5 million lambs were processed to June 2023 which is the second highest start to a year since 2018 when over 12 million lambs were slaughtered.

"This is an extra 1.24 million lambs slaughtered when compared to 2022, an uplift of 12pc year-on-year."