TOTAL grain yield potential for WA for this season has slipped by more than one million tonnes over the past few weeks due to continued dry conditions in much of the State's graingrowing regions.
In the latest Grain Industry Association of WA (GIWA) crop report released on Friday, the current estimate is sitting at 16,964,000 tonnes - down from the 18,139,000t estimate in July, but it has warned that if dry conditions continue, the outlook may drop even more.
"In the central and northern regions away from the coast, grain yield potential has fallen and will continue to fall further if rainfall does not pick up in the next four weeks," the report said.
The potential for an average year is still possible, with many farms receiving just enough rain to keep their crops going in recent weeks.
Regular rainfall in the coming weeks, or a few good double-digit rainfalls, could help some crops progress from average to good.
Some farmers haven't written off the season yet, with many predicting late-August or September rain could easily transform things.
Tim Creagh, Dandaragan, said despite having less rain this year, his crops were looking better than the previous year.
So far, Mr Creagh has recorded between 215-242 millimetres of rainfall across his property, and last year, this figure was sitting at 316mm for the same period.
Mr Creagh started seeding on April 10 on the back of 35mm of rain.
Last year, 97.5mm of rainfall was recorded at his property before April 10 seeding, with slightly higher than average summer rainfall totals.
"We ended up with 670mm for the year," Mr Creagh said.
"It was too wet for us last year in our lighter country, it caused a lot of leaching.
"I think the crops look better than last year for us at the moment due to less rainfall and the crops having access to applied nutrients without it all being washed away."
Mr Creagh seeded more than 1000 hectares of wheat, and a few hundred hectares each of barley, canola and lupins.
This year's canola plant was seeded on April 26.
This program was similar to last year, however Mr Creagh cut back the wheat crop slightly and put in more canola.
He is hoping for another 70mm of rainfall to finish off the crops, and could do without heat waves in September.
"I think we could probably finish with another 50mm but 70-90mm would be nice," Mr Creagh said.
Earlier on in the season, he observed a few frosts.
"We have had a couple of frosty mornings at the end of June which is unusual for us being so close to the coast," he said.
"The crops weren't advanced enough to do any frost damage."
However, the "colder than usual" June temperatures have slowed crop growth.
In June, the average temperature was 11 degrees.
"I think the crops are about two weeks behind what they were last year."
Redlegged earth mites were also a problem earlier in the season, mostly in the canola and lupin paddocks.
"We ended up having to reseed a couple of hectares of canola," Mr Creagh said.
The recent upturn in day temperatures has highlighted the precarious nature of the crop for large areas of the State where crops are later than in the previous very high production years.
GIWA believes the majority of canola crops are in good shape as the early sowing has assisted in pushing it through its growth stages in front of the cereals, resulting in less exposure to heat shock in spring.
While canola grain yield potential is predicted well below last year in most regions, the State has planted the second highest amount of canola hectares in history.
GIWA predicts a production of around 2.5mt of canola is possible at this stage of the season, while it is unlikely wheat production will exceed 10mt.
"Large areas of the central regions that were holding potential until a week ago, are now sweating off tillers in response to the dry conditions and warm temperatures," the report said.
"The very high potential areas of the State closer to the west coast are still holding, although without good follow-up rain soon, these areas will also lose potential rapidly as they are bulked up and have little moisture below them."
Wheat yields in the better areas look like producing more than 2.5 tonnes per hectare, graduating to 1t/ha or less in the dry areas.
GIWA predicts the overall WA average to be about 2t/ha.
Barley crop has quite a mixed potential with the better areas looking very good but crops in the drier areas are running up due to moisture stress.
An average grain yield of 2.5t/ha is most likely for barley.
Geraldton
The Geraldton zone is a tale of two areas, according to Elders agronomist Peter Eliott-Lockhart.
The northern and eastern part of the zone are looking "pretty ugly" - he estimated that if the Ogilvie or east Ogilvie area received another 20 or 30mm of rain, wheat would produce 0.5t/ha to 1t/ha, however with a kinder finish and a bit more rain, wheat had the potential to reach the 1.5-2t/ha mark.
Further down the coast is looking much better, and Mr Eliott-Lockhart said when looking out his window while driving on Valentine Road, crops were looking good.
He expected canola closer to the coast to be 1.5-2t/ha.
"If farmers have had a bit of rain, then it'll be closer to average, but if you're in one of those slightly drier spots, it'll be less than average," Mr Eliott-Lockhart said.
"What's going to happen between now and the middle of September and how hot it gets, whether we get another 10mm or another 40mm will determine how close to that sort of average number we're going to be."
A month ago he said there were a few farmers who were worried whether they would get their seed back.
"I think those guys will now get their seed back and might deliver a couple of loads, but it won't be anything outstanding," Mr Eliott-Lockhart said.
He said farmers were feeling "philosophical" about the season, and were comfortable with the fact that after a few great seasons they were now experiencing one not as good.
"They know they farm on the edge, and therefore they're going to have one of these years at some stage," he said.
"But if we get two or three of these in a row everybody might be a little more stressed."
Lupins are a potential issue this season, with some crops looking like they might only produce a couple hundred kilograms.
It raises the question whether farmers should harvest their lupins, or instead leave them in the soil for nitrogen.
It might mean that farmers will need to roll a stubble cruncher, however Mr Eliott-Lockhart said it was a serious consideration for some farmers.
He said Perenjori was looking "pretty ordinary", while further south towards Dandaragan and York was looking "handy".
Mr Eliott-Lockhart believed GIWA estimates were overstating how much grain would be produced, predicting it would be closer to 12-13mt.
Light rain last week has stalled the slide in grain yield potential in the Geraldton zone for another week or so.
GIWA believes the forecasted cooler weather will help crops, however the whole region needs "at least two good rains" in the next month to halt the reduction in potential that has occurred in the past few weeks.
"Crops around the very dry areas of Binnu, Yuna, Mullewa, Canna, Perenjori, Latham, Coorow and Carnamah were in dire straits prior to the recent rain and with mostly single digit falls this week, will drop away again fairly quickly without follow up rain in the next couple of weeks," the report said.
Early germinated canola is holding up well in dry conditions, and should still return a profit.
GIWA said the variance in total tonnage out of the Geraldton zone could be quite wide and the current 2mt estimate for the region was at the top end of predictions.
Kwinana
Despite the lack of rain, most crops are looking reasonably good across the Kwinana zones.
In the Kwinana North zone, Narembeen farmer Darien Poscoe said her farm was looking "beautiful" after a very welcomed 18-19mm rainfall last week.
She was extremely happy, and the stress of not receiving much rainfall in the past month had washed away with the rain.
"It's looking good - everyone has a smile on their face," Ms Poscoe said.
Less than 10mm rain events in winter had the zone living "hand-to-mouth".
"While the rain this week will delay a potential drop in grain yield potential, it won't be long until this is the case unless some decent rain falls in the next few weeks," the GIWA report said.
"The good areas of the zone will start to fall apart over the next few weeks without more rain. "
The west is still holding together, but east is hand-to-mouth with rainfall of 150mm being behind the long-term average.
"The zone is tracking 35-50mm behind 2019, which was a pretty ordinary year."
Wheat has picked up pace in the past few weeks, pushing through its growth stages quickly to now being at ear peep, while the barley crops are more advanced with heads out.
GIWA said there was possible frost damage in the advanced crops from a very cold night in the second week of August.
There is zero waterlogging in the western areas which has resulted in very good nitrogen efficiency, which is a blessing in disguise in these low rainfall intensity years.
In the Kwinana South zone, Corrigin farmer Peter Negri said his crops were starting to look alright after receiving rain in recent weeks.
He considered himself "lucky" with the amount of rainfall he had received, and was expecting an average season.
The Corrigin farm had experienced a lot of frost over the chilly winter, which had held growth up.
Mr Negri predicted the crops were about three weeks behind what he had hoped for this time of the season.
Tammin farmer Rod Stokes said the season was going "good" and definitely had potential, however his crops needed more rain in the coming weeks.
Doodlakine farmer Neil McFarlane said the recent cold weather had put his crops on hold.
"The season stopped for a month, but we didn't," Mr McFarlane said.
High on his list of concerns was the lack of pasture and limited feed for his sheep.
He had considered using fenced-off bushland for his sheep, as he didn't want to run out of stored feed.
Mr McFarlane was tossing up whether he should be breeding sheep with the low amount of feed available - which seemed to be a common thread of thought for farmers in the far eastern Wheatbelt.
GIWA said the cereals have a lot of growing to do to catch up to where they were this time last year.
Most are at Z31 (first node visible) or just starting to elongate.
"Crops with minimal soil moisture that are sitting at Z31, whilst they have tillered well, still have a way to go and could suffer if conditions are unfavourable in spring," the report said.
"The cereals in the lower rainfall areas of the zone have and are sweating off tillers.
"The rain this week was a last gasp and provided more time, although the cereals are not out of the woods just yet."
Albany
The West Albany zone is still on track for a very good year, but increased areas of waterlogging looms as the major threat to not equalling last year's record tonnage for the area.
"The paddocks around Mt Barker and Frankland were already very wet and paddocks in the low-lying areas will now be untrafficable following the rain in the last week," GIWA said.
In Albany south, the zone goes from "ridiculously wet" to "ridiculously dry" within 40 kilometres of each other.
Rainfall figures range from 135mm to more than 300mm in the growing season so far.
"The coast is wet, whilst north to Ongerup the crops are patchy where the region has just received its first double digit rainfall event since early June," GIWA said.
There is some report of pests in the region - including powdery mildew and Sclerotinia, although they don't seem to be having too much of an impact on crops.
"The canola is quite advanced for this time of the year and growers have really gone for it with nitrogen applications with up to 150kg per hectare of nitrogen applied, even on canola following pasture, which has resulted in extra buds forming that will help keep the top end grain yield potential up," the report said.
"In saying that, the top end potential does not look to be up to the last few years as the crops are not as cabbaged up or have not branched as much as in previous years."
Most crops in the Albany East zone were running out of moisture until three weeks ago, when they received up to 20mm right across the region, and the follow-up rain last week has put the season back on track for potentially close to an average year across the region.
"The crop grain yield potential had come off a bit prior to the rains in the last two weeks, although canola is still looking good," the report said.
Esperance
Grass Patch farmer John Sanderson has received about 30mm for the month, which he was extremely pleased with, after a dry July.
"Before this month we were starting to get a little stressed - I've never done a dry July for drinking, but I've definitely done it in a farming sense," Mr Sanderson said.
For the year, most of his farms had received about 160mm for the year.
The crop is looking very good given the below average rainfall.
"It's not going to be a disaster by any means," Mr Sanderson said.
"When we went for a drive I thought it looked pretty good, and our farm adviser yesterday said they don't look like drought crops.
"Even if it's a hard finish from here, we're gonna have harvestable crops, we're gonna be OK."
Grass Patch experienced a cold snap over the winter which stunted many crops, which Mr Sanderson said helped his crops - as they didn't have any moisture to grow in.
Some recent warm weather has been well received.
"The crops are really starting to get moving now, which they needed to, but they're gonna start drinking the moisture now - it's gonna be an interesting finish to the season," Mr Sanderson said.
The farm's canola and beans germinated from the early rains in April, however by the time the cereals were sown in late April there was no moisture.
Mr Sanderson said it was the first time he had sown his entire cereals program dry, so the crops germinated a lot later than usual.
He said this was probably a blessing in disguise, as it protected his crops from the cold snap in the middle of the year.
Mr Sanderson was hoping for another inch of rainfall which would secure an average crop and said 50mm by the end of the growing season would deliver relatively good yields.
While he would rather a wet finish, he will be happy with cool conditions.
The recent August rain has made Mr Sanderson more confident to apply a little bit of nitrogen to chase a 2.5t/ha crop.
The biggest challenge the farm was facing was the staggered growth of the crops - with paddocks having both four or five leaf wheat and wheat with a head out.
"It's going to be a tricky one," Mr Sanderson said.
The Esperance zone is a mixed bag - the wet areas close to the coast are very wet and grain yield potential will suffer due to the waterlogging.
The dry areas west of the Gums, Grass Patch and Cascade have improved, although GIWA believes the crops are going to need a good spring to reach average grain yield potential.
The shining light has been around Beaumont where it has been close to perfect.
"Liquid nitrogen is being applied in wet areas, with most growers fairly bullish with fertiliser applications this year," the report said.
