US rebuild offers big hope for cattle market but it's taking its time

With the US breeder cattle inventory now at a six-decade low following a drought that has lasted twice as long as that country's past two droughts, their rebuild will be a mammoth task.

Analysts believe it will strip both the US domestic market and the global market of beef for years, which is why Australia is so bullish about the potential.

The US is a major market for Australian beef but it is also a major competitor in Australia's other most lucrative markets, such as Japan, South Korea and China.

The massive decline in US beef production will come against a backdrop of increasing world demand for beef, and an already demonstrated willingness of American consumers to pay more for their beef.

For much of this year, a turnaround in the US liquidation has been touted but forecasts of widespread improved seasons have not yet occurred.

In fact, the September US Drought Monitor map shows big parts of cattle-critical country have slipped back into exceptional, extreme or severe drought since August.

Further, where rain has arrived in the US, so too have record cattle prices and that is incentivising ranchers to sell to recoup after years of tough times.

Still, the forecast is for substantial wet conditions across North America within months.

If that eventuates, international analysts such as GlobalAgritrends believe the US herd rebuild will begin in earnest around mid-2024.

Between now and then, depending on where rain arrives, the overall trend will be a 'holding pattern' whereby some improvement in global prices will start to flow but the 'big boon' will remain largely off stage.

Big volumes of beef are in storage across Asia and it will take some time for that to be worked through.

Weekly slaughter in the US is currently sitting around 644,000 head. Global AgriTrends' Simon Quilty said that needed to drop below 610,000 to signal a rebuild and for Australian exporters to feel the benefits.

US slaughter has not been below that level in any meaningful way since January 2017.

Global AgriTrends' forecast is for it to drop to that level in the first or second quarter of next year, and average 595,000 head a week for 2024.

The just-released Drovers State of the Beef Industry report and producer survey in the US, conducted this US spring, shows that of those who have destocked in recent years, 34pc anticipate restocking this year; 20pc next year and 32pc in two years plus.

Industry consultant Nevil Speer's comments in the report include that US producers began the year holding just 28.9 million beef cows, the lowest starting inventory since 1962.

He listed a number of factors behind the delay in rebuilding, most notably hay and pasture remaining in short supply.

Ranchers were carefully evaluating their options and seemingly weren't in any rush to restock, he said.

"Rebuilding the cow herd will take time, implying this cycle will likely be of longer duration versus the previous inventory lows in 2014," Mr Speer wrote.

Meat & Livestock Australia senior analyst Ripley Atkinson said the US breeding cow herd in June was at its lowest level since 1964.

"They have turned off an awful lot of females. What that will do is extend the time required for them to rebuild," he said.

But once they do start to retain numbers on farms, supply will constrain quickly and US volumes to export will decline significantly, he said.

When that does come, the impact on Australia can't be understated.

Global AgriTrends' data shows Australia shares 90pc of its export markets with the US.

Mr Quilty: "It's also important to note that many other countries, such as New Zealand and South America, are liquidating. Uniquely, Australia's supply is counter-cyclical, meaning we will have meat available when others don't."

GlobalAgritrends is predicting the price lift on Australian imported 90 CL manufacturing meat alone to be 66pc by 2026.

One thing that will spur US ranchers to restock is the optimism that comes from growing demand on their home soil.

According to the Drovers report, last year's US beef production hit a record 28.22 billion pounds and yet, even in the midst of bigger supply and an economy burdened by ongoing in inflation, consumers purchased beef at record retail prices, averaging nearly $7.60 per pound.

US beef consumers are purchasing more product and paying higher prices, all an indication of strengthening demand, the Drovers report said.

The July all-fresh beef retail price reported by the US Department of Agriculture was 7.79/lb - marking the second consecutive month of reaching new all-time highs.

Rabobank's latest Global Beef Quarterly says from January to July this year, demand remained the fifth highest in the past 30 years.