Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) wheat futures managed to increase by just over 6 per cent - or $18 per tonne in Australian dollar terms - last week.
This is after reaching a three-year low the week prior and came on the back of reports of some renewed demand.
Hopefully low prices are curing low prices by generating demand.
In the past few weeks, we've been querying whether CBoT wheat has been over-sold, particularly given the strength in Australian prices during the past three months.
Or does CBoT wheat still serve as a leading indicator for Australian prices?
Given harvest is now underway in northern areas of Australia, this query becomes more pertinent as many growers think about selling.
So, let's dive deeper.
Physical wheat prices on international markets appear to have remained relatively stable.
APW wheat was reportedly offered into Indonesia at US$320/t, delivered to their ports on a carry and freight (C&F) basis last week.
This works back to about $445/t free into store (FIS) in Western Australia and $415/t port track out of the Eastern States - without taking into account any extra supply chain costs a trader may incur.
It lines up with reports of APW wheat offered at about US$300/t Free on Board (FoB) ex Australian ports, which converts to about $440/t FIS WA and $420/t track eastern Australia.
These two data points provide a helpful reference for Australian growers about what their grain may be worth in areas where grain will be exported.
In areas where grain is needed domestically, such as north eastern Australia, the price will be above these values - depending on how far grain needs to move to satisfy demand and the cost of freight.
Despite a positive lead by CBoT wheat and the international price of Australian wheat seemingly stable, published bids for Australian grain softened during last week in some areas.
This may be driven by some helpful rains through Victoria and southern New South Wales, along with the harvest underway in northern areas.
Are we starting to see "harvest price pressure"?
This refers to prices often lowering during harvest as more grain becomes available, more growers try to sell and effectively pressure prices down.
Actual traded prices on Clear Grain Exchange generally held week-on-week, with many buyers searching for grain offered for sale by growers, despite published bids weakening in some areas.
Rather than selling into cash bids and potentially pushing prices lower this harvest, growers can understand what their grain is worth and offer it for sale to all buyers to achieve its true value.
For more information or to see what values are trading contact Clear Grain Exchange on 1800 000 410 or support@cgx.com.au
