An online conversation has started over farmer concerns about the accuracy of long-term rainfall forecasts issued by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) with claims its El Nino forecast last year contributed to a drop in market prices.
South Australian cattle farmer and butcher Tim Burvill, from the Adelaide Hills, said there was a growing distrust from the agricultural industry towards the BoM after a series of rainfall forecasts last year.
Mr Burvill posted about his frustrations via LinkedIn and received a flood of comments of other farmers sharing his concern.
The government-funded service operates on a $335.2 million budget, with a total operating cost estimated to be closer to $420m.
"For an organisation that costs more than ($1m) per day, they've got to be better and they've got to be held to account," Mr Burvill said.
He said BoM predicted a very dry November, however at the end of the month between 60-70 millimetres fell in the Adelaide Hills area.
"You've got to ask the question - what are the parameters they're putting into their algorithms? - because it just feels like they want to be forecasting hot and dry all the time," he said.
Mr Burvill now pays for an independent weather forecasting service and looks at other forecasting models such as the Global Forecast System.
Paying for a weather service wasn't a huge outlay, but he said it's about the principle of not having access to reliable rain forecasts, which was disappointing.
He said a lot of people believe the weather was simply too hard to forecast, however he was finding much more accurate reports through other sources.
"We need to move past this thinking that the weather is hard to predict because other models are getting it right," Mr Burvill said.
At the start of 2023, sheep and cattle were reaching 'historically' high prices in the Eastern States.
Mr Burvill said a young steer was priced at $11.92 per kilogram, and by the start of November, this had dropped dramatically to $3.49/kg, according to the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator.
"This was massively influenced by BoM declaring an El Nino and with that their forecasts of a very dry spring and summer period," he said.
For east coast farmers, painful memories of the 2018/19 drought are still very much front of mind.
"It was an absolute shocker, a lot of farmers dug in during that time and were feeding stock for up to two years at a huge cost," Mr Burvill said.
"So when BoM declared El Nino, people started dumping stock onto the market."
The bureau told Farm Weekly, "The cattle price in Australia declined linearly from January 2022 to December 2023".
"There is no evidence that the Bureau's El Nino declaration, issued in September 2023, or any other climate outlook issued by the Bureau, significantly affected cattle, or any other livestock prices, in Australia," a bureau spokesperson said.
BoM determines El Nino based on the Pacific ocean temperature at a region on the equator.
Warmer temperatures cause westerly winds, drawing moisture away from Australia.
Mr Burvill said there was a missing piece to the equation.
"What the BoM has failed to look at is that the water temperatures off the north west of WA are hotter than the spot over the equator, so instead of having westerly airflow we're having huge easterlies," he said.
While some may say that it's better to receive rain when you weren't expecting it than to not receive any when you were, Mr Burvill said unexpected rainfall wreaked havoc for some farmers.
"I knew farmers who seeded country that was low-lying, near a river thinking it'll be dry, and then after the huge rains in June, they got flooded out," he said.
"You have other people that decided not to seed at all, and then I had a guy who owns a feedlot and bought thousand of tonnes of barley to feed his cattle in September because they (BoM) declared an El Nino."
On December 13, ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper hit the coast of Far North Queensland, but on December 8, BoM released a graphic which showed the area only had a 20-30pc chance of exceeding the median rainfall.
"I think the bureau has lost all credibility in terms of medium-term rainfall forecasting," Mr Burvill said.
While he believes in climate change and global warming, the bureau's inaccuracies could make climate change confusing and difficult for people to believe in.
"Farmers, whose livelihood is dependent on the weather, are probably the most resistant or non-believing of climate change and the reason for that is simple," he said.
"They'll stand there and say "if the bureau can't accurately forecast between one to four weeks, why would they believe climate predictions in 40 years time?"
The bureau maintained its forecast accuracy had consistently ranked in the top five in the world, alongside the European Union, United Kingdom and United States.
It credits its' accuracy to advanced computer modelling.
"The bureau's high forecast accuracy is made possible by advanced computing power, more and better observations, continually improved models and the ability to run a range of weather and climate simulations or ensemble models to increase accuracy and reliability," the spokesperson said.
"The bureau's expert scientists draw upon the latest science to produce its' forecast and warnings."
The bureau said it provided short-term forecasts of seven days and long-term forecasts of between one week to three months, and updates long range forecasts fortnightly.
"Weather forecasts carry an inherent uncertainty that, on some occasions, results in forecasts deviating from the actual weather," a spokesperson said.
"Long range forecasts do not predict sudden severe weather events.
"Sudden severe weather events are forecast through our short-term forecasts," the spokesperson said.
The bureau also said it uses a wide range of inputs to create long-range forecasts, but didn't provide information on what these inputs were.
The effects of El Nino and La Nina are unpredictable, confusing and difficult to understand, and the bureau doesn't make it any clearer, acknowledging that the effects of El Nino in Australia has only brought on more rainfall over the summer months.
"Now that the northern monsoon has arrived, the influence of both El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is diminished, and the chance of summer rainfall events increases.
"Around half of the past El Nino events have included heavy rainfall events, particularly across parts of eastern Australia.
"This occurred in December 2009 and again in August 2015 where the Illawarra received more than 400mm of rain in two days."
The bureau also noted that a combination of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), combined with very high temperatures in the Tasman Sea, likely contributed to rainfall events in eastern Australia in December and January.
"It is unusual to see a persistently positive SAM during El Nino, as that is more typical during a La Nia phase," a spokesperson said.
"The widespread and regular rainfall across southeastern Australia across multiple months is similarly unusual for El Nino."
Have you been affected by inaccurate forecasts?
Send an email to perri.polson@farmweekly.com.au
