Mutton dressed as lamb, lamb dressed as mutton?
For global exporters there didn't seem to be a preference last year, with the insatiable hunger for Australian sheepmeat skyrocketing into uncharted territory - and it's only expected to grow.
Episode 3 founder and market analyst Matt Dalgleish said cheaper prices, compared to competitors including New Zealand, lifted Australian lamb and mutton exports to record levels in 2023.
Heading into the new year, Mr Dalgleish said pricing had started to recover, which was a good sign for sheep producers.
And he expected the appetite for Australian sheepmeat to continue, saying long-term supply and demand looked "strong and robust".
A recent Episode 3 report by Mr Dalgleish, showed 28,926 tonnes of Aussie lamb and 20,799t of mutton was exported offshore in December.
Despite being down a mild three per cent on November levels, lamb exports still produced the best December result on record, with trade flows running 27pc above the five-year average.
These results wrapped up a successful 12 months, with 326,013t shipped weight (swt) setting a new annual record volume - almost 15pc higher than the previous record (284,256t) set in 2022.
Mr Dalgleish said China managed to sneak past the USA for Aussie lamb's top trade destination, accounting for 20.8pc or 67,763t compared to 20.3pc or 66,320t.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates secured third place by taking home 7.3pc or 23,764t, followed by Papua New Guinea with 6.9pc or 22,340t.
It was a similar story for the mutton market, with export volumes lifting by five per cent to 20,799t swt.
This topped the 20,309t exported in December 2014, to set a new record export total.
Compared to the five-year December average, flows were 24pc higher and nearly 37pc above export volumes reported the year before.
Mr Dalgleish said the strong finish topped off a stellar year, with 209,580t of mutton setting a new annual record for Aussie mutton exports.
He said this was nearly 13pc higher than the previous best year in 2014, when 185,992t were shipped offshore.
China dominated the mutton market in 2023, accounting for 46.5pc or 97,481t of the trade, up from 39.8pc seen in 2022.
Other top destinations included Malaysia with 10.2pc or 21,414t of mutton, the USA 6.6pc or 13,749t and Saudi Arabia with 5.7pc or 11,851t.
Mr Dalgeish said each market had a different reason for lifting export volumes last year.
He said the demand for boxed sheepmeat had surged, particularly in price sensitive markets, like the Middle East.
"As we move further away from COVID, global economies rebound, and oil and fuel prices go up - more money is put into the pockets of Middle Eastern countries that sell those products globally," Mr Dalgleish said.
"The combination of that, plus cheaper product from Australia in a market that is very price sensitive, has seen the Middle East re-engage with lamb and mutton exports fairly aggressively."
In the US, which was in its fourth year of drought-forced beef herd liquidations, demand grew for different reasons.
Supply issues, as a result of those liquidations, seen the cold store beef market decline and prices in domestic beef rise.
As a result of this, the US was forced to import not only Australian beef, but also sheepmeat, as an alternative red meat.
"We have seen the demand, particularly for Australian lamb, increase towards the back-end of 2023," Mr Dalgleish said.
"North America and the Middle East are key markets for lamb, and then obviously China has been strong throughout the year, particularly with mutton.
"Then there is the United Kingdom that, with the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), has started increasing volumes.
"While they're not at huge levels yet, it is just another marketplace.
"So we have multiple destinations around the world that have all increased demand for sheepmeat and we only really have Australia and New Zealand that can supply the product."
Mr Dalgleish said China had an absolutely booming year for mutton demand, setting monthly records from January to August.
He said, despite not breaking records, levels in the month that followed were still in the top four.
"China had 20pc higher volumes than their previous record, which is massive," Mr Dalgleish said.
"If you think about it, the previous record was set in 2019 and that was when they were right in the depths of the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic.
"The pig herd had been decimated and domestic pork production was down by 40pc.
"Pork is the biggest meat eaten in China by a long stretch in terms of per capita consumption, so there was a huge hole in protein."
This meant consumers had to look for alternatives and started taking beef, chicken and sheepmeat from anywhere they could.
China's pork production has since returned to its pre-ASF levels, but the appetite for Australian mutton remains unchanged.
Mr Dalgleish said this could be owed to that temporary shift away from pork, as well as cheaper prices.
"During that ASF period they had to eat all the alternatives," he said.
"So there has been a growing fondness for meat other than pork and sheepmeat has been a perfect substitute in that space.
"It works well in some of the dishes they cook, particularly mutton, it holds up well in that hotspot cooking style.
"It is a good flavoursome meat that holds well in slow and low cooking.
"I think that is a really positive sign as well."
Bunbury-based V&V Walsh general manager Brent Dancer said it was good to see some positivity returning to the lamb market.
Mr Dancer said the lamb job had flipped from oversupply and falling prices, particularly in the second half of 2023, to undersupply in the first few weeks of January.
He said this was mainly seen in quality trade weight lambs.
"As a result of the quick cut-out to spring, there is an abundance of light weight lambs in WA," Mr Dancer said.
"Certainly over the Christmas period many lambs didn't get to the carcase weights that producers had advised they would be able to supply.
"However, quality supermarket-grade lambs have been much harder to source, not just in WA, but throughout Australia.
"And with committed orders to fill, processors have been providing strong competition on those lambs that meet the required specs."
V&V Walsh has returned to its regular five-day a week processing schedule, with a number of Saturday's earmarked to meet export order deliveries.
The major livestock processor decided to shake up its roster last September, by introducing a Saturday shift to clear a surge of lambs coming onto the market.
The extra-day change, was in place for three weeks of every month until Christmas, increased throughput by up to 7500 lambs per week.
"Our shift to six days during the spring and summer was helpful in reducing the overhand of old season lambs," Mr Dancer said.
"This allowed producers to free up pasture for new season lambs."
WA Meat Marketing Co-operative chief executive officer Coll MacRury said large kills in spring meant processors needed to export a huge volume of product, hence the new records set.
In the Eastern States, and since December, Mr MacRury said there has been significant rainfall and an upswing in lamb prices.
"As a result of this producers have plenty of feed to grow lambs on," he said.
"So for at least a month or two there will be less lamb exported.
"Meanwhile, the west will continue as per normal, as it is still very dry and demand to move stock will be strong."
