Grain growers are coming to terms with the likelihood the supercharged prices of the last few seasons are drawing to a close.
Prices for grain globally have dipped substantially over recent months, with both production and supply chain issues easing.
Cash prices for benchmark APW grade wheat on the east coast are back to around $350/t.
Rabobank Research Australia New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel said it was trend growers would have to factor in for the 2024-25 season.
"Grain prices are likely to remain under pressure, as markets globally and locally battle with a supply outlook for 2024 that is more plentiful than in past years," he said.
"For a significant 2024 price upside for grain, the world would need to see weather-related supply shortages arise."
Analyst Lloyd George, AgScientia, said already the current marketing season was already distinct from the trends of the past two years.
"This year is proving very different to the past two, the previous two years the prices globally have been good enough for the exporters to make forward sales and chase the grain and still have good margins," he said.
"This year while there is still demand it is not hot, our wheat has been relatively expensive into Asia so it has been more of traditional hand-to-mouth buying program."
Mr George said while global factors were important, it was equally critical to take into account the unexpectedly large harvest.
"We had a crop that came in across a large area around 15 to 20 per cent better than expected and that has caught everyone by surprise, this grain will have to work its way through the system."
"We're seeing it do that, we've got ASW track prices that are down to the level that it is finding demand in those key Asian markets, whether it be Indonesia, China or the Philippines, so the market has done its job."
Locally, he said there had been good demand from livestock industries in the Riverina, which was keeping the NSW price above the Victorian price, while northern prices remain at a premium after a poor winter cropping season.
Mr Vogel said he expected the cropping season to begin with optimism even with a slightly lower pricing outlook.
"El Nino didn't turn out as bad as feared, with recent significant rainfall received across most farming areas except Western Australia".
"Grain farmers are set to plan more optimistically for the purchase of farm inputs and the upcoming planting period for winter crops especially in the growing areas outside Western Australia, which was the only region that hasn't received much rain over summer."