![The hot and dry conditions normally correlated with an El Nino did not eventuate this summer for most. File photo. The hot and dry conditions normally correlated with an El Nino did not eventuate this summer for most. File photo.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/440756a2-fd3b-407d-98e1-e46a0f21eb8c.jpg/r0_544_3888_2592_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
The El Nino weather event in the Pacific continues to wane while the stubborn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive event is also finally over.
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Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) readings show that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific have peaked and are now dropping.
International models surveyed by the BOM show the El Nino event fading to just over El Nino thresholds by the end of the month and then to neutral territory by April, although with a slight positive SST anomaly correlated with an El Nino, before truly neutral conditions prevail by July.
Along with the SST figures, the BOM also noted in its most recent El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update this week that most atmospheric indicators are close to normal levels, although trade winds have temporarily weakened in line with the passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through the region.
On the other side of the continent, the positive IOD event has officially ended, with the breakdown slower than in other years.
The latest weekly IOD index was below +0.4 degrees, the positive IOD threshold for the second consecutive week.
The breakdown of the IOD positive is what is expected, with IOD events typically breaking down as the monsoon trough shifts south into the southern hemisphere.
However, due to the strength of the positive IOD in 2023, the event decay has been later than usual.
The BOM said the majority of model forecasts indicate the IOD will be neutral until at least April, consistent with the annual cycle of the IOD.
It is relatively quiet in terms of the other major climate drivers with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) neutral and expected to remain mostly neutral over the coming fortnight.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the central Pacific. International climate models suggest the MJO is likely to remain in the central Pacific during the coming fortnight.
When the MJO is in the central Pacific region, it may also weaken trade winds in the central to western Pacific, which is likely to temporarily stall cooling SSTs associated with El Nino decline which could be parts of the reason SSTs across parts of the Pacific have indeed increased slightly over the past week.